Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.1K

Combined PnL

$-2.1K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,199

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Up8 traders

Total Value$651.39

Total Shares651

Combined PnL+$979.57

Down — 62%Up — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barristerARB<$100	Down	$7.1K	$7.1K	-$391.78	56% 3642-2827 (6469)
└ Down leg	Down	—	—	$-5.5K
└ Up leg	Up	$7.1K	$7.1K	+$5.1K
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 66.6¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$279.83	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.1¢	$989.29	—	-$989.29
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.7¢	$439.49	$1.7K	+$1.3K
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$620.76	$807.52	+$186.76	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$365.44	—	-$365.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 31.6¢	$255.31	$807.52	+$552.2
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 52.2¢	$494.82	$845.46	+$350.65	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.2¢	$257.69	—	-$257.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 28¢	$237.12	$845.46	+$608.34
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$401.8	$294.82	-$106.98	54% 8028-6737 (14765)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$267.94	—	-$267.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.4¢	$133.86	$294.82	+$160.96
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 62.1¢	$305.48	$336.03	+$30.55	68% 99525-47913 (147438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.1¢	$221.24	—	-$221.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.1¢	$84.24	$336.03	+$251.79
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Upavg 43.1¢	$442.2	$696.32	+$254.12	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.1¢	$300.21	$696.32	+$396.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 71¢	$141.99	—	-$141.99
HO hoodquantARB<$100	Downavg 98¢	$602.54	$253	-$349.54	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
└ Down leg	Downavg 98¢	$359.66	—	-$359.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 96¢	$242.88	$253	+$10.12
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 52.6¢	$196.08	$211.61	+$15.54	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.6¢	$159.48	—	-$159.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.3¢	$36.6	$211.61	+$175.01
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 49.7¢	$281.05	—	-$281.05	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 61.1¢	$237.79	$291.76	+$53.97	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.1¢	$160.19	—	-$160.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.6¢	$77.6	$291.76	+$214.16
SP spartacrayCTR	Downavg 83¢	$269.74	—	-$269.74	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$230.75	$241.27	+$10.51	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
└ Down leg	Downavg 27.1¢	$54.98	—	-$54.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$175.77	$241.27	+$65.5
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 86.5¢	$221.04	$300.24	+$79.2	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.5¢	$147.5	—	-$147.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.5¢	$73.53	$300.24	+$226.71
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 60.1¢	$166.97	$219.39	+$52.42	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.1¢	$90.1	—	-$90.1
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$76.87	$219.39	+$142.53
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Downavg 69.7¢	$177.77	—	-$177.77	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 7¢	$16.04	—	-$16.04	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$18.45	—	-$18.45	61% 94915-59834 (154749)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 55.1¢	$113.52	$115.82	+$2.3	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.1¢	$61.67	—	-$61.67
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$51.86	$115.82	+$63.96
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$48.92	—	-$48.92	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$80.75	—	-$80.75	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
machinelearned	Upavg 55.3¢	$145.17	$243.55	+$98.39	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 83.4¢	$60.69	—	-$60.69	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$60.3	—	-$60.3	55% 23888-19304 (43192)

arcsine-barristerARB<$100

Down

Invested

$7,101.14

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$391.78

Record

56%

3642-2827 (6469)

Both legs:

Invested

$2,083.83

Value

—

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,428.78

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$279.83

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

Both legs:

Down$989.2956.1¢-$989.29

Up$439.4925.7¢+$1.3K

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$620.76

Value

$807.52

PnL

+$186.76

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

Both legs:

Down$365.4452.2¢-$365.44

Up$255.3131.6¢+$552.2

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$494.82

Value

$845.46

PnL

+$350.65

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

Both legs:

Down$257.6952.2¢-$257.69

Up$237.1228¢+$608.34

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$401.8

Value

$294.82

PnL

-$106.98

Record

54%

8028-6737 (14765)

Both legs:

Down$267.9464¢-$267.94

Up$133.8645.4¢+$160.96

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$305.48

Value

$336.03

PnL

+$30.55

Record

68%

99525-47913 (147438)

Both legs:

Down$221.2462.1¢-$221.24

Up$84.2425.1¢+$251.79

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Invested

$442.2

Value

$696.32

PnL

+$254.12

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

Both legs:

Up$300.2143.1¢+$396.12

Down$141.9971¢-$141.99

hoodquantARB<$100

Down

Invested

$602.54

Value

$253

PnL

-$349.54

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

Both legs:

Down$359.6698¢-$359.66

Up$242.8896¢+$10.12

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.08

Value

$211.61

PnL

+$15.54

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

Both legs:

Down$159.4852.6¢-$159.48

Up$36.617.3¢+$175.01

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$281.05

Value

—

PnL

-$281.05

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$237.79

Value

$291.76

PnL

+$53.97

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

Both legs:

Down$160.1961.1¢-$160.19

Up$77.626.6¢+$214.16

spartacrayCTR

Down

Invested

$269.74

Value

—

PnL

-$269.74

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$230.75

Value

$241.27

PnL

+$10.51

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

Both legs:

Down$54.9827.1¢-$54.98

Up$175.7772.9¢+$65.5

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$221.04

Value

$300.24

PnL

+$79.2

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Down$147.586.5¢-$147.5

Up$73.5324.5¢+$226.71

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.97

Value

$219.39

PnL

+$52.42

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

Both legs:

Invested

$177.77

Value

—

PnL

-$177.77

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.04

Value

—

PnL

-$16.04

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$18.45

Value

—

PnL

-$18.45

Record

61%

94915-59834 (154749)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$113.52

Value

$115.82

PnL

+$2.3

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

Both legs:

Down$61.6755.1¢-$61.67

Up$51.8644.8¢+$63.96

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$48.92

Value

—

PnL

-$48.92

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$80.75

Value

—

PnL

-$80.75

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

machinelearned

Invested

$145.17

Value

$243.55

PnL

+$98.39

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.69

Value

—

PnL

-$60.69

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$60.3

Value

—

PnL

-$60.3

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 21 top traders (62%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x6d458b2c...99a553

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793369700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Arbitrage — excluded

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

CrouchPredictions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

hoodquant

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded