Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 86%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.2K

Combined PnL

$824.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 22 top traders (86%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down19 traders

Total Value$7.5K

Total Shares7,519

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,025

Combined PnL-$528.43

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98.9¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$17.29	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$834.1	$1.0K	+$195.09	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$664.65	$1.0K	+$364.54
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.7¢	$169.45	—	-$169.45
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 60.5¢	$795.95	$1.1K	+$331.91	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 63.1¢	$603.54	$657.22	+$53.68	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.1¢	$414.46	$657.22	+$242.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.9¢	$189.08	—	-$189.08
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Downavg 74.4¢	$669.82	$899.99	+$230.18	48% 23276-25616 (48892)
SP spartacray	Downavg 72.7¢	$561.61	$634.06	+$72.45	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
TE TelawinCTR	Upavg 53.8¢	$500	—	-$500	50% 343-338 (681)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 53.8¢	$366.45	$464.32	+$97.87	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
MO mo-money	Downavg 46¢	$233.16	$500	+$266.84	55% 50491-41087 (91578)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$364.09	$327.1	-$36.99	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.6¢	$244.13	$327.1	+$82.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 30¢	$119.96	—	-$119.96
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 47.4¢	$295.94	$390.71	+$94.78	59% 6781-4751 (11532)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$185.07	$390.71	+$205.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$110.87	—	-$110.87
machinelearned	Downavg 72.7¢	$343.15	$463	+$119.85	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 76.4¢	$324.01	$272.85	-$51.17	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$275.33	$324.98	+$49.64	56% 58073-44827 (102900)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$236.12	$324.98	+$88.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.6¢	$39.21	—	-$39.21
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 72.7¢	$239.48	$234.46	-$5.02	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.7¢	$170.39	$234.46	+$64.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.5¢	$69.09	—	-$69.09
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 73.1¢	$177.64	$221.49	+$43.85	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 76.7¢	$214.96	$215.41	+$0.45	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
NIULAI4	Downavg 92¢	$186	$200	+$14	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 78¢	$212.43	$200	-$12.43	51% 17100-16638 (33738)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78¢	$156	$200	+$44
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$56.43	—	-$56.43
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Downavg 73¢	$199.76	$232.44	+$32.68	58% 60547-44207 (104754)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73¢	$169.73	$232.44	+$62.71
└ Up leg	Upavg 20¢	$30.04	—	-$30.04
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Upavg 29.1¢	$198.14	$91.38	-$106.76	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.1¢	$146.22	—	-$146.22
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$51.92	$91.38	+$39.46
MayorMamdani	Downavg 86.8¢	$189.76	$218.63	+$28.87	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
ohioism	Downavg 76.7¢	$137.53	$176.73	+$39.2	64% 40110-22937 (63047)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$112.4	$69.25	-$43.15	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$74.4	—	-$74.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.9¢	$38	$69.25	+$31.25
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$96.43	$110.02	+$13.59	55% 23888-19304 (43192)
└ Down leg	Downavg 72.2¢	$79.47	$110.02	+$30.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 27¢	$16.96	—	-$16.96

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,627.71

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$17.29

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$834.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$195.09

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

Both legs:

Down$664.6564.6¢+$364.54

Up$169.4513.7¢-$169.45

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$795.95

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$331.91

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$603.54

Value

$657.22

PnL

+$53.68

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

Both legs:

Down$414.4663.1¢+$242.76

Up$189.0824.9¢-$189.08

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down

Invested

$669.82

Value

$899.99

PnL

+$230.18

Record

48%

23276-25616 (48892)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$561.61

Value

$634.06

PnL

+$72.45

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

TelawinCTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

50%

343-338 (681)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$366.45

Value

$464.32

PnL

+$97.87

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$233.16

Value

$500

PnL

+$266.84

Record

55%

50491-41087 (91578)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$364.09

Value

$327.1

PnL

-$36.99

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

Both legs:

Down$244.1374.6¢+$82.97

Up$119.9630¢-$119.96

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$295.94

Value

$390.71

PnL

+$94.78

Record

59%

6781-4751 (11532)

Both legs:

Down$185.0747.4¢+$205.65

Up$110.8753.9¢-$110.87

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$343.15

Value

$463

PnL

+$119.85

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$324.01

Value

$272.85

PnL

-$51.17

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$275.33

Value

$324.98

PnL

+$49.64

Record

56%

58073-44827 (102900)

Both legs:

Down$236.1272.7¢+$88.85

Up$39.2122.6¢-$39.21

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.48

Value

$234.46

PnL

-$5.02

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Down$170.3972.7¢+$64.07

Up$69.0924.5¢-$69.09

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$177.64

Value

$221.49

PnL

+$43.85

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$214.96

Value

$215.41

PnL

+$0.45

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$186

Value

$200

PnL

+$14

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.43

Value

$200

PnL

-$12.43

Record

51%

17100-16638 (33738)

Both legs:

Down$15678¢+$44

Up$56.4328.2¢-$56.43

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$199.76

Value

$232.44

PnL

+$32.68

Record

58%

60547-44207 (104754)

Both legs:

Down$169.7373¢+$62.71

Up$30.0420¢-$30.04

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Invested

$198.14

Value

$91.38

PnL

-$106.76

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

Both legs:

Up$146.2229.1¢-$146.22

Down$51.9256.8¢+$39.46

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$189.76

Value

$218.63

PnL

+$28.87

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$137.53

Value

$176.73

PnL

+$39.2

Record

64%

40110-22937 (63047)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$112.4

Value

$69.25

PnL

-$43.15

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

Both legs:

Invested

$96.43

Value

$110.02

PnL

+$13.59

Record

55%

23888-19304 (43192)

Both legs:

Down$79.4772.2¢+$30.55

Up$16.9627¢-$16.96

Smart Money Signal

Down

19 of 22 top traders (86%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xe3fe5f81...825699

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793367300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.6K

+$17.29

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$195.09

uninformedfloww

Down — $1.1K

+$331.91

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$53.68

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $899.99

+$230.18

spartacray

Down — $634.06

+$72.45

Telawin

CTR

Up — $0

-$500

antsaslyku

Down — $464.32

+$97.87

mo-money

Down — $500

+$266.84

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$36.99

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