Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 65%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$648.76

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 27 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares5,141

Combined PnL+$230.6

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,057

Combined PnL-$879.36

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$12.25	93% 23467-1770 (25237)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 66.5¢	$775.01	$827.99	+$52.98	49% 5258-5381 (10639)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 61.5¢	$769.62	$708.27	-$61.35	56% 14444-11357 (25801)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 42.7¢	$531.54	—	-$531.54	57% 70901-53981 (124882)
MO mo-money	Downavg 89¢	$445	$500	+$55	55% 50491-41087 (91578)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 58.2¢	$449.56	$279.29	-$170.27	62% 28572-17853 (46425)
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.2¢	$298.32	—	-$298.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.2¢	$151.24	$279.29	+$128.05
NIULAI4	Downavg 90.3¢	$348.68	$348	-$0.68	77% 9405-2826 (12231)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.1¢	$319.56	$329	+$9.44	55% 44917-37366 (82283)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 91.6¢	$423.88	$398.38	-$25.5	57% 7881-6054 (13935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.6¢	$364.87	$398.38	+$33.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$59.01	—	-$59.01
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 55.7¢	$207.86	$104.72	-$103.14	53% 27215-24192 (51407)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$150.76	—	-$150.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$57.11	$104.72	+$47.61
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 72.5¢	$145	$142.28	-$2.72	57% 12026-9030 (21056)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 65.5¢	$98.42	$141.77	+$43.36	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 76¢	$145.26	$134.01	-$11.25	60% 12241-8099 (20340)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 63.8¢	$144.91	$128.09	-$16.82	66% 112173-58591 (170764)
AS asdaefef	Downavg 82.8¢	$121.73	$120	-$1.73	66% 125811-64748 (190559)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 87.7¢	$104.98	$117.26	+$12.28	55% 7453-6109 (13562)
13 13897651	Downavg 54.7¢	$119.99	$163.3	+$43.31	59% 6781-4751 (11532)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR	Upavg 64.8¢	$137.46	—	-$137.46	57% 10339-7761 (18100)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 57.3¢	$99.8	$117.03	+$17.23	55% 17781-14392 (32173)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.3¢	$67.05	$117.03	+$49.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$32.75	—	-$32.75
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 65¢	$97.55	$150.08	+$52.53	58% 60547-44207 (104754)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$92.51	—	-$92.51	55% 8650-7109 (15759)
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 44.7¢	$32.6	$72.9	+$40.3	57% 12656-9358 (22014)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$35.71	—	-$35.71	52% 90329-84819 (175148)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 58.1¢	$39.27	—	-$27.49	64% 23206-12791 (35997)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 78¢	$16.13	$19.37	+$3.24	63% 51921-30603 (82524)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,212.75

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$12.25

Record

93%

23467-1770 (25237)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$775.01

Value

$827.99

PnL

+$52.98

Record

49%

5258-5381 (10639)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$769.62

Value

$708.27

PnL

-$61.35

Record

56%

14444-11357 (25801)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$531.54

Value

—

PnL

-$531.54

Record

57%

70901-53981 (124882)

mo-money

Down

Invested

$445

Value

$500

PnL

+$55

Record

55%

50491-41087 (91578)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$449.56

Value

$279.29

PnL

-$170.27

Record

62%

28572-17853 (46425)

Both legs:

Up$298.3258.2¢-$298.32

Down$151.2454.2¢+$128.05

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$348.68

Value

$348

PnL

-$0.68

Record

77%

9405-2826 (12231)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$319.56

Value

$329

PnL

+$9.44

Record

55%

44917-37366 (82283)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$423.88

Value

$398.38

PnL

-$25.5

Record

57%

7881-6054 (13935)

Both legs:

Down$364.8791.6¢+$33.51

Up$59.0143¢-$59.01

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$207.86

Value

$104.72

PnL

-$103.14

Record

53%

27215-24192 (51407)

Both legs:

Up$150.7655.7¢-$150.76

Down$57.1154.5¢+$47.61

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$145

Value

$142.28

PnL

-$2.72

Record

57%

12026-9030 (21056)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$98.42

Value

$141.77

PnL

+$43.36

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$145.26

Value

$134.01

PnL

-$11.25

Record

60%

12241-8099 (20340)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$144.91

Value

$128.09

PnL

-$16.82

Record

66%

112173-58591 (170764)

asdaefef

Down

Invested

$121.73

Value

$120

PnL

-$1.73

Record

66%

125811-64748 (190559)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$104.98

Value

$117.26

PnL

+$12.28

Record

55%

7453-6109 (13562)

13897651

Down

Invested

$119.99

Value

$163.3

PnL

+$43.31

Record

59%

6781-4751 (11532)

trdyugiolkwCTR

Invested

$137.46

Value

—

PnL

-$137.46

Record

57%

10339-7761 (18100)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$99.8

Value

$117.03

PnL

+$17.23

Record

55%

17781-14392 (32173)

Both legs:

Down$67.0557.3¢+$49.98

Up$32.7562.5¢-$32.75

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$97.55

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$52.53

Record

58%

60547-44207 (104754)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Invested

$92.51

Value

—

PnL

-$92.51

Record

55%

8650-7109 (15759)

wowitsamazing<$100

Down

Invested

$32.6

Value

$72.9

PnL

+$40.3

Record

57%

12656-9358 (22014)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$35.71

Value

—

PnL

-$35.71

Record

52%

90329-84819 (175148)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

—

PnL

-$27.49

Record

64%

23206-12791 (35997)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$16.13

Value

$19.37

PnL

+$3.24

Record

63%

51921-30603 (82524)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 27 top traders (63%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x553b393b...4029fe

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793366700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.2K

+$12.25

ply-pm0

Down — $827.99

+$52.98

CrouchPredictions

Down — $708.27

-$61.35

uninformedfloww

CTR

Up — $0

-$531.54

mo-money

Down — $500

+$55

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$170.27

NIULAI4

Down — $348

-$0.68

MayorMamdani

Down — $329

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded