Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 86% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 85%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

-$91.15

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 28 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down24 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,843

Combined PnL+$234.05

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares696

Combined PnL-$325.2

Down — 86%Up — 14%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$5.1K	$5.1K	-$4.89	59% 62228-43400 (105628)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 84.7¢	$415.37	$475.97	+$60.59	62% 28561-17844 (46405)
CR CrouchPredictions	Downavg 75.8¢	$430.12	$432.86	+$2.74	56% 14443-11356 (25799)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 88.3¢	$324.81	$351.46	+$26.65	54% 8018-6727 (14745)
SP spartacray	Downavg 83.5¢	$305.13	$332.44	+$27.31	53% 27207-24180 (51387)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 55.8¢	$264.99	$307.19	+$42.2	59% 6775-4737 (11512)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.8¢	$171.37	$307.19	+$135.82
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$93.62	—	-$93.62
ST std0	Downavg 94.7¢	$243.5	$242.22	-$1.27	67% 53252-26660 (79912)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$220.8	—	-$220.8	46% 7925-9338 (17263)
0X 0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c	Downavg 66.6¢	$102.46	$153.76	+$51.3	59% 23125-16266 (39391)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$141.14	$144.02	+$2.88	93% 23431-1770 (25201)
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Downavg 86.4¢	$140.85	$150.61	+$9.76	55% 17763-14385 (32148)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 49.1¢	$84.14	—	-$84.14	57% 12017-9019 (21036)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$66.23	$81.76	+$15.53	60% 12230-8091 (20321)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 92.7¢	$58.31	$58	-$0.31	52% 90287-84781 (175068)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 70¢	$61.53	$87.89	+$26.36	55% 7442-6101 (13543)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 91¢	$37.31	$41	+$3.69	55% 44884-37341 (82225)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 85¢	$34.41	$30	-$4.41	49% 5246-5377 (10623)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89¢	$36	$36	+$0	61% 94870-59807 (154677)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 95¢	$26.81	$25	-$1.81	66% 125752-64727 (190479)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 18.3¢	$8	—	-$8	57% 12651-9354 (22005)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 75.8¢	$20.47	$27	+$6.53	57% 7871-6039 (13910)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$12.25	—	-$12.25	58% 50993-37138 (88131)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 95¢	$10.01	$10.54	+$0.53	64% 23134-12762 (35896)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 49¢	$7.66	$9.43	+$1.77	66% 112148-58563 (170711)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 51¢	$7.65	$15	+$7.35	34% 18794-35795 (54589)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$5,133.51

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$4.89

Record

59%

62228-43400 (105628)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$415.37

Value

$475.97

PnL

+$60.59

Record

62%

28561-17844 (46405)

CrouchPredictions

Down

Invested

$430.12

Value

$432.86

PnL

+$2.74

Record

56%

14443-11356 (25799)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$324.81

Value

$351.46

PnL

+$26.65

Record

54%

8018-6727 (14745)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$305.13

Value

$332.44

PnL

+$27.31

Record

53%

27207-24180 (51387)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$264.99

Value

$307.19

PnL

+$42.2

Record

59%

6775-4737 (11512)

Both legs:

Down$171.3755.8¢+$135.82

Up$93.6250.1¢-$93.62

std0

Down

Invested

$243.5

Value

$242.22

PnL

-$1.27

Record

67%

53252-26660 (79912)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR

Invested

$220.8

Value

—

PnL

-$220.8

Record

46%

7925-9338 (17263)

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down

Invested

$102.46

Value

$153.76

PnL

+$51.3

Record

59%

23125-16266 (39391)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$141.14

Value

$144.02

PnL

+$2.88

Record

93%

23431-1770 (25201)

Kathod-Shi-14

Down

Invested

$140.85

Value

$150.61

PnL

+$9.76

Record

55%

17763-14385 (32148)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$84.14

Value

—

PnL

-$84.14

Record

57%

12017-9019 (21036)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$66.23

Value

$81.76

PnL

+$15.53

Record

60%

12230-8091 (20321)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$58.31

Value

$58

PnL

-$0.31

Record

52%

90287-84781 (175068)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$61.53

Value

$87.89

PnL

+$26.36

Record

55%

7442-6101 (13543)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$37.31

Value

$41

PnL

+$3.69

Record

55%

44884-37341 (82225)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$34.41

Value

$30

PnL

-$4.41

Record

49%

5246-5377 (10623)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$36

Value

$36

PnL

+$0

Record

61%

94870-59807 (154677)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$26.81

Value

$25

PnL

-$1.81

Record

66%

125752-64727 (190479)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$8

Record

57%

12651-9354 (22005)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$20.47

Value

$27

PnL

+$6.53

Record

57%

7871-6039 (13910)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Invested

$12.25

Value

—

PnL

-$12.25

Record

58%

50993-37138 (88131)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$10.01

Value

$10.54

PnL

+$0.53

Record

64%

23134-12762 (35896)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$7.66

Value

$9.43

PnL

+$1.77

Record

66%

112148-58563 (170711)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$7.65

Value

$15

PnL

+$7.35

Record

34%

18794-35795 (54589)

Smart Money Signal

Down

24 of 28 top traders (86%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc4b5a763...e12f2d

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793360100

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $5.1K

-$4.89

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $475.97

+$60.59

CrouchPredictions

Down — $432.86

+$2.74

sfkjbsr457

Down — $351.46

+$26.65

spartacray

Down — $332.44

+$27.31

13897651

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$42.2

std0

Down — $242.22

-$1.27

0x0d2d...7ff5

CTR

Up — $0

-$220.8

0xf9b7876ba2c35370e0bedb7f8ee772da722aa37c

Down — $153.76

+$51.3

hoodquant

Down — $144.02

+$2.88

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