Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$68.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$543.41

Total Shares543

Combined PnL+$64.86

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares303

Combined PnL-$133.43

Down — 63%Up — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 56.3¢	$706.96	$842.91	+$135.94	56% 14443-11356 (25799)
└ Up leg	Upavg 18¢	$232.02	—	-$232.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.3¢	$474.95	$842.91	+$367.96
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 74.9¢	$342.86	$337.94	-$4.93	62% 28561-17844 (46405)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74.9¢	$253.07	$337.94	+$84.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.2¢	$89.8	—	-$89.8
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 87.1¢	$316.2	$317.44	+$1.23	54% 8018-6727 (14745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.1¢	$276.45	$317.44	+$40.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.4¢	$39.76	—	-$39.76
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 62.2¢	$201.26	$220.63	+$19.37	49% 5246-5377 (10623)
└ Up leg	Upavg 26¢	$63.98	—	-$63.98
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.2¢	$137.29	$220.63	+$83.34
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 49.3¢	$157.31	$227.68	+$70.37	58% 37847-27088 (64935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.3¢	$112.18	$227.68	+$115.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 28.2¢	$45.13	—	-$45.13
ST std0ARB<$100	Downavg 89.9¢	$148.14	$150.92	+$2.78	67% 53252-26660 (79912)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.9¢	$135.7	$150.92	+$15.22
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.2¢	$12.45	—	-$12.45
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Downavg 86.2¢	$79.4	$74.87	-$4.53	66% 125752-64727 (190479)
└ Up leg	Upavg 7.2¢	$14.86	—	-$14.86
└ Down leg	Downavg 86.2¢	$64.54	$74.87	+$10.33
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 89¢	$58.6	$54.19	-$4.41	52% 90287-84781 (175068)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 79.7¢	$119.75	$94.01	-$25.74	57% 12017-9019 (21036)
└ Up leg	Upavg 32.4¢	$44.85	—	-$44.85
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.7¢	$74.9	$94.01	+$19.1
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Downavg 78.1¢	$69.44	$60.2	-$9.24	53% 27207-24180 (51387)
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.4¢	$22.45	—	-$22.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$46.99	$60.2	+$13.21
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 66.7¢	$92.55	$117.67	+$25.12	60% 12230-8091 (20321)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.7¢	$78.54	$117.67	+$39.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.9¢	$14.01	—	-$14.01
MayorMamdani	Downavg 94.8¢	$127.5	$129	+$1.5	55% 44884-37341 (82225)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 85.3¢	$119.4	$140	+$20.6	57% 10324-7753 (18077)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$79.94	$44	-$35.94	55% 7442-6101 (13543)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.7¢	$50.9	—	-$50.9
└ Down leg	Downavg 66¢	$29.04	$44	+$14.96
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100	Upavg 40.9¢	$48	—	-$48	55% 17763-14385 (32148)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 50.5¢	$44.66	—	-$44.65	59% 6775-4737 (11512)
RO Rock.San<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$44.3	$44.34	+$0.04	89% 11961-1414 (13375)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 34¢	$31.93	—	-$31.93	58% 60533-44196 (104729)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 89¢	$67	$75.28	+$8.28	64% 40097-22930 (63027)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 19.7¢	$62.47	—	+$0.43	61% 94870-59807 (154677)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 61¢	$24.4	$24.48	+$15.44	64% 23134-12762 (35896)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 50.9¢	$8.34	$16.29	+$7.95	66% 112148-58563 (170711)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 55¢	$11	$20	+$9	57% 7871-6039 (13910)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$19.8	$20	+$0.2	93% 23431-1770 (25201)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 28.5¢	$2.85	—	-$2.85	55% 23877-19299 (43176)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$706.96

Value

$842.91

PnL

+$135.94

Record

56%

14443-11356 (25799)

Both legs:

Up$232.0218¢-$232.02

Down$474.9556.3¢+$367.96

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$342.86

Value

$337.94

PnL

-$4.93

Record

62%

28561-17844 (46405)

Both legs:

Down$253.0774.9¢+$84.87

Up$89.832.2¢-$89.8

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$316.2

Value

$317.44

PnL

+$1.23

Record

54%

8018-6727 (14745)

Both legs:

Down$276.4587.1¢+$40.99

Up$39.7618.4¢-$39.76

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.26

Value

$220.63

PnL

+$19.37

Record

49%

5246-5377 (10623)

Both legs:

Up$63.9826¢-$63.98

Down$137.2962.2¢+$83.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$157.31

Value

$227.68

PnL

+$70.37

Record

58%

37847-27088 (64935)

Both legs:

Down$112.1849.3¢+$115.5

Up$45.1328.2¢-$45.13

std0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$148.14

Value

$150.92

PnL

+$2.78

Record

67%

53252-26660 (79912)

Both legs:

Down$135.789.9¢+$15.22

Up$12.459.2¢-$12.45

asdaefefARB<$100

Down

Invested

$79.4

Value

$74.87

PnL

-$4.53

Record

66%

125752-64727 (190479)

Both legs:

Up$14.867.2¢-$14.86

Down$64.5486.2¢+$10.33

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$58.6

Value

$54.19

PnL

-$4.41

Record

52%

90287-84781 (175068)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.75

Value

$94.01

PnL

-$25.74

Record

57%

12017-9019 (21036)

Both legs:

Invested

$69.44

Value

$60.2

PnL

-$9.24

Record

53%

27207-24180 (51387)

Both legs:

Up$22.4513.4¢-$22.45

Down$46.9978.1¢+$13.21

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$92.55

Value

$117.67

PnL

+$25.12

Record

60%

12230-8091 (20321)

Both legs:

Down$78.5466.7¢+$39.13

Up$14.0127.9¢-$14.01

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$127.5

Value

$129

PnL

+$1.5

Record

55%

44884-37341 (82225)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$119.4

Value

$140

PnL

+$20.6

Record

57%

10324-7753 (18077)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$79.94

Value

$44

PnL

-$35.94

Record

55%

7442-6101 (13543)

Both legs:

Up$50.954.7¢-$50.9

Down$29.0466¢+$14.96

Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100

Invested

$48

Value

—

PnL

-$48

Record

55%

17763-14385 (32148)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$44.66

Value

—

PnL

-$44.65

Record

59%

6775-4737 (11512)

Rock.San<$100

Down

Invested

$44.3

Value

$44.34

PnL

+$0.04

Record

89%

11961-1414 (13375)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$31.93

Value

—

PnL

-$31.93

Record

58%

60533-44196 (104729)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$67

Value

$75.28

PnL

+$8.28

Record

64%

40097-22930 (63027)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$62.47

Value

—

PnL

+$0.43

Record

61%

94870-59807 (154677)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$24.4

Value

$24.48

PnL

+$15.44

Record

64%

23134-12762 (35896)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$8.34

Value

$16.29

PnL

+$7.95

Record

66%

112148-58563 (170711)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$11

Value

$20

PnL

+$9

Record

57%

7871-6039 (13910)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$19.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$0.2

Record

93%

23431-1770 (25201)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

—

PnL

-$2.85

Record

55%

23877-19299 (43176)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 19 top traders (63%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x55c7ed7f...9938f1

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793359800

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$135.94

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

asdaefef

Arbitrage — excluded

dvasdkasodk

Down — $54.19

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded