Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 89% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 89%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

$87.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 19 top traders (89%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,656

Combined PnL+$147.92

Up2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares112

Combined PnL-$60.04

Down — 89%Up — 11%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CR CrouchPredictionsARB<$100	Downavg 81.3¢	$937.34	$997.43	+$60.09	56% 14441-11352 (25793)
└ Down leg	Downavg 81.3¢	$810.5	$997.43	+$186.93
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.9¢	$126.83	—	-$126.83
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 79.7¢	$631.19	$697.61	+$66.42	62% 28550-17836 (46386)
SP spartacray	Downavg 77.9¢	$211.01	$245.46	+$34.44	53% 27196-24172 (51368)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 80.3¢	$241.35	$198	-$43.35	57% 12011-9005 (21016)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.3¢	$159.06	$198	+$38.94
└ Up leg	Upavg 35¢	$82.29	—	-$82.29
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 77.1¢	$193.96	$248.87	+$54.91	60% 12220-8081 (20301)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 74¢	$178.67	$175.71	-$2.96	49% 5238-5365 (10603)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$129.97	$175.71	+$45.74
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.9¢	$48.7	—	-$48.7
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 87.4¢	$177.32	$137.43	-$39.89	54% 8009-6715 (14724)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.4¢	$120.11	$137.43	+$17.31
└ Up leg	Upavg 26.5¢	$57.2	—	-$57.2
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$120.4	$105	-$15.4	55% 7431-6093 (13524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 90.2¢	$94.74	$105	+$10.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 12.5¢	$25.66	—	-$25.66
ST std0<$100	Downavg 95.2¢	$95.18	$84.86	-$10.32	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Downavg 87¢	$66.5	$50.06	-$16.44	55% 17762-14385 (32147)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 85¢	$55.96	$61.49	+$5.53	66% 125490-64588 (190078)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 89¢	$55.35	$56	+$0.65	57% 7855-6024 (13879)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$58.87	—	-$58.87	59% 6765-4727 (11492)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 92¢	$34.96	$38	+$3.04	55% 44849-37309 (82158)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 89¢	$41.61	$29	-$7.53	61% 94821-59772 (154593)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 85¢	$29.74	$34.99	+$5.25	77% 9397-2821 (12218)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 90¢	$22.17	$14	-$8.17	52% 90236-84735 (174971)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 72.3¢	$21.17	$25.46	+$4.29	55% 23872-19288 (43160)
RO Rock.San<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$18.05	$18.07	+$0.02	89% 11960-1414 (13374)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 78.6¢	$13.26	$16.88	+$3.61	66% 112118-58522 (170640)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 54¢	$13.5	$25	+$11.5	55% 8635-7085 (15720)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 93¢	$9.52	$10.24	+$0.72	63% 51856-30563 (82419)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 9¢	$1.17	—	-$1.17	57% 10314-7744 (18058)
AR arcsine-barrister<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3642-2827 (6469)

CrouchPredictionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$937.34

Value

$997.43

PnL

+$60.09

Record

56%

14441-11352 (25793)

Both legs:

Down$810.581.3¢+$186.93

Up$126.8312.9¢-$126.83

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$631.19

Value

$697.61

PnL

+$66.42

Record

62%

28550-17836 (46386)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$211.01

Value

$245.46

PnL

+$34.44

Record

53%

27196-24172 (51368)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$241.35

Value

$198

PnL

-$43.35

Record

57%

12011-9005 (21016)

Both legs:

Down$159.0680.3¢+$38.94

Up$82.2935¢-$82.29

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$193.96

Value

$248.87

PnL

+$54.91

Record

60%

12220-8081 (20301)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$178.67

Value

$175.71

PnL

-$2.96

Record

49%

5238-5365 (10603)

Both legs:

Down$129.9774¢+$45.74

Up$48.721.9¢-$48.7

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$177.32

Value

$137.43

PnL

-$39.89

Record

54%

8009-6715 (14724)

Both legs:

Down$120.1187.4¢+$17.31

Up$57.226.5¢-$57.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.4

Value

$105

PnL

-$15.4

Record

55%

7431-6093 (13524)

Both legs:

Down$94.7490.2¢+$10.26

Up$25.6612.5¢-$25.66

std0<$100

Down

Invested

$95.18

Value

$84.86

PnL

-$10.32

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Down

Invested

$66.5

Value

$50.06

PnL

-$16.44

Record

55%

17762-14385 (32147)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$55.96

Value

$61.49

PnL

+$5.53

Record

66%

125490-64588 (190078)

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$55.35

Value

$56

PnL

+$0.65

Record

57%

7855-6024 (13879)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$58.87

Value

—

PnL

-$58.87

Record

59%

6765-4727 (11492)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$34.96

Value

$38

PnL

+$3.04

Record

55%

44849-37309 (82158)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$41.61

Value

$29

PnL

-$7.53

Record

61%

94821-59772 (154593)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$29.74

Value

$34.99

PnL

+$5.25

Record

77%

9397-2821 (12218)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$22.17

Value

$14

PnL

-$8.17

Record

52%

90236-84735 (174971)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$21.17

Value

$25.46

PnL

+$4.29

Record

55%

23872-19288 (43160)

Rock.San<$100

Down

Invested

$18.05

Value

$18.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

89%

11960-1414 (13374)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$13.26

Value

$16.88

PnL

+$3.61

Record

66%

112118-58522 (170640)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$13.5

Value

$25

PnL

+$11.5

Record

55%

8635-7085 (15720)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$9.52

Value

$10.24

PnL

+$0.72

Record

63%

51856-30563 (82419)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$1.17

Value

—

PnL

-$1.17

Record

57%

10314-7744 (18058)

arcsine-barrister<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3642-2827 (6469)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 19 top traders (89%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb270fb9c...5b1888

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793358900

Traders in this Market

CrouchPredictions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$60.09

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $697.61

+$66.42

spartacray

Down — $245.46

+$34.44

EZTRADENL2

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$43.35

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $248.87

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$15.4

std0

Down — $84.86

-$10.32

Kathod-Shi-14

Down — $50.06

-$16.44

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