Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 83% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Down 83%
2 arb excluded
$2.6K
$210.25
Smart Money Signal
20 of 24 top traders (83%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 79.5¢ | $594.67 | $657.17 | +$62.49 | 62% 28550-17836 (46386) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $268.68 | $272.38 | +$3.7 | 49% 5238-5365 (10603) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $49.94 | — | -$49.94 | 59% 62205-43384 (105589) |
SP spartacray | Downavg 74.8¢ | $210.34 | $269.48 | +$59.14 | 53% 27196-24172 (51368) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 62.6¢ | $191.21 | $186.63 | -$4.58 | 54% 8009-6715 (14724) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 64.8¢ | $162 | $250 | +$88 | 55% 8635-7085 (15720) |
ST std0 | Downavg 63¢ | $128.02 | $155.72 | +$27.7 | 67% 53242-26652 (79894) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 58¢ | $69.85 | $88 | +$18.15 | 60% 12220-8081 (20301) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 52.2¢ | $89.58 | $73.25 | -$16.33 | 59% 6765-4727 (11492) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 52.2¢ | $50.93 | — | -$50.93 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 52.8¢ | $38.65 | $73.25 | +$34.6 | |
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $119.3 | $71.82 | -$47.47 | 55% 17762-14385 (32147) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 84.6¢ | $60.8 | $71.82 | +$11.03 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.9¢ | $58.5 | — | -$58.5 | |
LI Little-big | Downavg 51¢ | $83.5 | $163.66 | +$80.16 | 34% 18780-35785 (54565) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83.2¢ | $79.78 | $83.07 | +$3.29 | 66% 125490-64588 (190078) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $63.61 | $57 | -$6.37 | 61% 94821-59772 (154593) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 37.9¢ | $90.47 | — | -$90.47 | 57% 12011-9005 (21016) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 70.1¢ | $53.11 | $48.45 | +$7.77 | 64% 23076-12710 (35786) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $44.55 | $44.27 | -$0.28 | 66% 112118-58522 (170640) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 64.5¢ | $31.3 | $32.72 | +$1.41 | 52% 90236-84735 (174971) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $37.13 | $32 | -$5.13 | 57% 7855-6024 (13879) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $31.01 | $22 | -$9.01 | 55% 44849-37309 (82158) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $29.04 | $44 | +$14.96 | 55% 7431-6093 (13524) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $12.68 | $21.49 | +$8.81 | 57% 10314-7744 (18058) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $10 | +$2.9 | 40% 489-723 (1212) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 59.1¢ | $5.99 | $8.75 | +$2.76 | 55% 23872-19288 (43160) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 17.7¢ | $4.07 | — | -$4.07 | 65% 125137-66970 (192107) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 23¢ | $1.15 | — | -$1.15 | 56% 58027-44801 (102828) |
Invested
$594.67
Value
$657.17
PnL
+$62.49
Record
62%
28550-17836 (46386)
Invested
$268.68
Value
$272.38
PnL
+$3.7
Record
49%
5238-5365 (10603)
Invested
$49.94
Value
—
PnL
-$49.94
Record
59%
62205-43384 (105589)
Invested
$210.34
Value
$269.48
PnL
+$59.14
Record
53%
27196-24172 (51368)
Invested
$191.21
Value
$186.63
PnL
-$4.58
Record
54%
8009-6715 (14724)
machinelearnedInvested
$162
Value
$250
PnL
+$88
Record
55%
8635-7085 (15720)
Invested
$128.02
Value
$155.72
PnL
+$27.7
Record
67%
53242-26652 (79894)
Invested
$69.85
Value
$88
PnL
+$18.15
Record
60%
12220-8081 (20301)
Invested
$89.58
Value
$73.25
PnL
-$16.33
Record
59%
6765-4727 (11492)
Both legs:
Invested
$119.3
Value
$71.82
PnL
-$47.47
Record
55%
17762-14385 (32147)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.5
Value
$163.66
PnL
+$80.16
Record
34%
18780-35785 (54565)
Invested
$79.78
Value
$83.07
PnL
+$3.29
Record
66%
125490-64588 (190078)
Invested
$63.61
Value
$57
PnL
-$6.37
Record
61%
94821-59772 (154593)
Invested
$90.47
Value
—
PnL
-$90.47
Record
57%
12011-9005 (21016)
Invested
$53.11
Value
$48.45
PnL
+$7.77
Record
64%
23076-12710 (35786)
Invested
$44.55
Value
$44.27
PnL
-$0.28
Record
66%
112118-58522 (170640)
Invested
$31.3
Value
$32.72
PnL
+$1.41
Record
52%
90236-84735 (174971)
Invested
$37.13
Value
$32
PnL
-$5.13
Record
57%
7855-6024 (13879)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$31.01
Value
$22
PnL
-$9.01
Record
55%
44849-37309 (82158)
Invested
$29.04
Value
$44
PnL
+$14.96
Record
55%
7431-6093 (13524)
Invested
$12.68
Value
$21.49
PnL
+$8.81
Record
57%
10314-7744 (18058)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.9
Record
40%
489-723 (1212)
Invested
$5.99
Value
$8.75
PnL
+$2.76
Record
55%
23872-19288 (43160)
Invested
$4.07
Value
—
PnL
-$4.07
Record
65%
125137-66970 (192107)
Invested
$1.15
Value
—
PnL
-$1.15
Record
56%
58027-44801 (102828)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Down — $657.17
ply-pm0
Down — $272.38
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
spartacray
Down — $269.48
sfkjbsr457
Down — $186.63
machinelearned
Down — $250
std0
Down — $155.72
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $88
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Kathod-Shi-14
ARBArbitrage — excluded