Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

11 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$165.44

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,208

Combined PnL+$359.08

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares500

Combined PnL-$193.64

Up — 65%Down — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$509.01	$480.98	-$28.03	62% 28550-17836 (46386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 70.4¢	$338.5	$480.98	+$142.48
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$170.51	—	-$170.51
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 73.3¢	$402.36	$402.93	+$0.57	49% 5238-5365 (10603)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.3¢	$295.54	$402.93	+$107.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.1¢	$106.82	—	-$106.82
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 61.3¢	$180.55	$204.86	+$24.31	54% 8009-6715 (14724)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 79.5¢	$225.2	$231	+$7.9	60% 12220-8081 (20301)
└ Up leg	Upavg 79.5¢	$183.59	$231	+$47.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.6¢	$39.43	—	-$39.51
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 62.3¢	$166.16	$224.54	+$58.38	57% 12011-9005 (21016)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 81.9¢	$158.84	$150.26	-$8.58	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$123	$150.26	+$27.26
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.5¢	$35.84	—	-$35.84
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$133.78	$168.45	+$34.67	59% 6765-4727 (11492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$86.98	$168.45	+$81.47
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.8¢	$46.8	—	-$46.8
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$126.19	$140.19	+$13.99	53% 27196-24172 (51368)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.2¢	$97.01	$140.19	+$43.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.2¢	$29.19	—	-$29.19
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 76.3¢	$131.88	$141	+$9.12	57% 7855-6024 (13879)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.3¢	$107.64	$141	+$33.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.2¢	$24.24	—	-$24.24
machinelearned	Upavg 68.5¢	$108.41	$150	+$41.59	55% 8635-7085 (15720)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 39¢	$86.4	$60	-$26.4	65% 125137-66970 (192107)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$51.6	—	-$51.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 58¢	$34.8	$60	+$25.2
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 48.5¢	$91.11	—	-$91.11	34% 18780-35785 (54565)
AS asdaefefARB<$100	Upavg 81¢	$100.03	$107.53	+$7.5	66% 125490-64588 (190078)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81¢	$87.12	$107.53	+$20.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.8¢	$12.91	—	-$12.91
KA Kathod-Shi-14	Upavg 65.7¢	$83	$113.87	+$30.87	55% 17762-14385 (32147)
ohioism	Upavg 59¢	$88.53	$150.04	+$61.52	64% 40076-22914 (62990)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 95.7¢	$73.35	$52.37	-$20.98	55% 7431-6093 (13524)
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$23.2	—	-$23.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 95.7¢	$50.14	$52.37	+$2.23
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 18.8¢	$70.19	—	-$70.19	66% 112118-58522 (170640)
G-Penis-Monster	Upavg 61¢	$61.23	$100.38	+$39.15	62% 43761-26770 (70531)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 59¢	$59.15	$100.26	+$41.11	56% 58027-44801 (102828)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 61¢	$61	$100	+$39	51% 17087-16626 (33713)
TR trdyugiolkwARB<$100	Upavg 75¢	$36.45	$35	-$1.45	57% 10314-7744 (18058)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$10.2	—	-$10.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 75¢	$26.25	$35	+$8.75
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$15.58	—	-$9.15	61% 94821-59772 (154593)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 21.3¢	$9.92	—	-$9.92	52% 90236-84735 (174971)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 44¢	$17.38	$39.49	+$22.12	58% 60512-44183 (104695)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 77.5¢	$18.17	$20.01	+$1.84	55% 23872-19288 (43160)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$509.01

Value

$480.98

PnL

-$28.03

Record

62%

28550-17836 (46386)

Both legs:

Up$338.570.4¢+$142.48

Down$170.5148.8¢-$170.51

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$402.36

Value

$402.93

PnL

+$0.57

Record

49%

5238-5365 (10603)

Both legs:

Up$295.5473.3¢+$107.39

Down$106.8224.1¢-$106.82

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$180.55

Value

$204.86

PnL

+$24.31

Record

54%

8009-6715 (14724)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$225.2

Value

$231

PnL

+$7.9

Record

60%

12220-8081 (20301)

Both legs:

Up$183.5979.5¢+$47.41

Down$39.4343.6¢-$39.51

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$166.16

Value

$224.54

PnL

+$58.38

Record

57%

12011-9005 (21016)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$158.84

Value

$150.26

PnL

-$8.58

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

Both legs:

Up$12381.9¢+$27.26

Down$35.8426.5¢-$35.84

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$133.78

Value

$168.45

PnL

+$34.67

Record

59%

6765-4727 (11492)

Both legs:

Up$86.9851.6¢+$81.47

Down$46.848.8¢-$46.8

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$126.19

Value

$140.19

PnL

+$13.99

Record

53%

27196-24172 (51368)

Both legs:

Up$97.0169.2¢+$43.18

Down$29.1934.2¢-$29.19

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$131.88

Value

$141

PnL

+$9.12

Record

57%

7855-6024 (13879)

Both legs:

Up$107.6476.3¢+$33.36

Down$24.2433.2¢-$24.24

machinelearned

Invested

$108.41

Value

$150

PnL

+$41.59

Record

55%

8635-7085 (15720)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$86.4

Value

$60

PnL

-$26.4

Record

65%

125137-66970 (192107)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.11

Value

—

PnL

-$91.11

Record

34%

18780-35785 (54565)

asdaefefARB<$100

Invested

$100.03

Value

$107.53

PnL

+$7.5

Record

66%

125490-64588 (190078)

Both legs:

Up$87.1281¢+$20.41

Down$12.9120.8¢-$12.91

Kathod-Shi-14

Invested

$83

Value

$113.87

PnL

+$30.87

Record

55%

17762-14385 (32147)

ohioism

Invested

$88.53

Value

$150.04

PnL

+$61.52

Record

64%

40076-22914 (62990)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$73.35

Value

$52.37

PnL

-$20.98

Record

55%

7431-6093 (13524)

Both legs:

Invested

$70.19

Value

—

PnL

-$70.19

Record

66%

112118-58522 (170640)

G-Penis-Monster

Invested

$61.23

Value

$100.38

PnL

+$39.15

Record

62%

43761-26770 (70531)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$59.15

Value

$100.26

PnL

+$41.11

Record

56%

58027-44801 (102828)

gansinimen

Invested

$61

Value

$100

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

17087-16626 (33713)

trdyugiolkwARB<$100

Invested

$36.45

Value

$35

PnL

-$1.45

Record

57%

10314-7744 (18058)

Both legs:

Invested

$15.58

Value

—

PnL

-$9.15

Record

61%

94821-59772 (154593)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.92

Value

—

PnL

-$9.92

Record

52%

90236-84735 (174971)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$17.38

Value

$39.49

PnL

+$22.12

Record

58%

60512-44183 (104695)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$18.17

Value

$20.01

PnL

+$1.84

Record

55%

23872-19288 (43160)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 17 top traders (65%)11 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x66de78c2...5b09eb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793358300

Traders in this Market

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Up — $204.86

+$24.31

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$7.9

EZTRADENL2

Up — $224.54

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Up — $150

+$41.59

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