Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 64%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$269.45

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 26 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,535

Combined PnL+$269.14

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares848

Combined PnL-$538.58

Down — 65%Up — 35%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 98¢	$721.46	$736	+$14.54	93% 23399-1767 (25166)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 67.8¢	$466.03	$513.63	+$47.6	62% 28550-17836 (46386)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Upavg 40.5¢	$201.8	—	-$201.8	49% 5238-5365 (10603)
SP spartacray	Downavg 74.6¢	$160.41	$175.1	+$14.69	53% 27196-24172 (51368)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$167.07	$64.99	-$102.07	59% 6765-4727 (11492)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$135.72	—	-$135.72
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.2¢	$31.35	$64.99	+$33.65
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$165.4	$160.39	-$5.01	55% 17762-14385 (32147)
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.6¢	$76.4	$160.39	+$83.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$89	—	-$89
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 78¢	$188.61	$149.22	-$39.39	54% 8009-6715 (14724)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 58.6¢	$150.91	$208.29	+$57.38	60% 12220-8081 (20301)
ST std0	Downavg 86.2¢	$160.49	$134.06	-$26.42	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$104.96	$100	-$4.96	51% 17087-16626 (33713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$30	$100	+$70
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.9¢	$74.96	—	-$74.96
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 55.3¢	$68.36	$101.83	+$33.47	66% 112118-58522 (170640)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$92.16	—	-$92.16	64% 40076-22914 (62990)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 37.3¢	$55.98	$150.25	+$94.27	57% 12011-9005 (21016)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$59.45	$81.47	+$22.02	68% 99316-47652 (146968)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$31.05	—	-$31.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.9¢	$28.4	$81.47	+$53.07
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 52.9¢	$65.97	$91.57	+$25.6	57% 7855-6024 (13879)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR	Upavg 60.3¢	$102.94	—	-$102.94	56% 58027-44801 (102828)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$59.96	—	-$59.96	62% 43761-26770 (70531)
PB PBot-6	Downavg 47.3¢	$51.98	$109.97	+$57.98	58% 50983-37128 (88111)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 97¢	$55.81	$50	-$5.81	55% 8635-7085 (15720)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$50.65	$45	-$5.65	52% 90236-84735 (174971)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$44.51	$30.52	-$13.98	55% 7431-6093 (13524)
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$20.42	—	-$20.42	66% 125490-64588 (190078)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$13.06	—	-$13.06	61% 94821-59772 (154593)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 56¢	$10.48	$18.71	+$8.23	64% 23076-12710 (35786)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 62¢	$10.12	$16.32	+$6.2	55% 44849-37309 (82158)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$721.46

Value

$736

PnL

+$14.54

Record

93%

23399-1767 (25166)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$466.03

Value

$513.63

PnL

+$47.6

Record

62%

28550-17836 (46386)

ply-pm0CTR

Invested

$201.8

Value

—

PnL

-$201.8

Record

49%

5238-5365 (10603)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$160.41

Value

$175.1

PnL

+$14.69

Record

53%

27196-24172 (51368)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$167.07

Value

$64.99

PnL

-$102.07

Record

59%

6765-4727 (11492)

Both legs:

Up$135.7254.5¢-$135.72

Down$31.3548.2¢+$33.65

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Invested

$165.4

Value

$160.39

PnL

-$5.01

Record

55%

17762-14385 (32147)

Both legs:

Down$76.447.6¢+$83.99

Up$8962.5¢-$89

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$188.61

Value

$149.22

PnL

-$39.39

Record

54%

8009-6715 (14724)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$150.91

Value

$208.29

PnL

+$57.38

Record

60%

12220-8081 (20301)

std0

Down

Invested

$160.49

Value

$134.06

PnL

-$26.42

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$104.96

Value

$100

PnL

-$4.96

Record

51%

17087-16626 (33713)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.36

Value

$101.83

PnL

+$33.47

Record

66%

112118-58522 (170640)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$92.16

Value

—

PnL

-$92.16

Record

64%

40076-22914 (62990)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$55.98

Value

$150.25

PnL

+$94.27

Record

57%

12011-9005 (21016)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Invested

$59.45

Value

$81.47

PnL

+$22.02

Record

68%

99316-47652 (146968)

Both legs:

Up$31.0541.4¢-$31.05

Down$28.434.9¢+$53.07

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$65.97

Value

$91.57

PnL

+$25.6

Record

57%

7855-6024 (13879)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR

Invested

$102.94

Value

—

PnL

-$102.94

Record

56%

58027-44801 (102828)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$59.96

Value

—

PnL

-$59.96

Record

62%

43761-26770 (70531)

PBot-6

Down

Invested

$51.98

Value

$109.97

PnL

+$57.98

Record

58%

50983-37128 (88111)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$55.81

Value

$50

PnL

-$5.81

Record

55%

8635-7085 (15720)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$50.65

Value

$45

PnL

-$5.65

Record

52%

90236-84735 (174971)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Down

Invested

$44.51

Value

$30.52

PnL

-$13.98

Record

55%

7431-6093 (13524)

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$20.42

Value

—

PnL

-$20.42

Record

66%

125490-64588 (190078)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$13.06

Value

—

PnL

-$13.06

Record

61%

94821-59772 (154593)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$10.48

Value

$18.71

PnL

+$8.23

Record

64%

23076-12710 (35786)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$10.12

Value

$16.32

PnL

+$6.2

Record

55%

44849-37309 (82158)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 26 top traders (65%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xd9bf6b5a...6be2cb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793358000

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $736

+$14.54

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $513.63

+$47.6

ply-pm0

CTR

Up — $0

-$201.8

spartacray

Down — $175.1

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

Kathod-Shi-14

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Down — $149.22

-$39.39

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $208.29

+$57.38

std0

Down — $134.06

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded