Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 76%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$183.41

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares10,819

Combined PnL+$365.52

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,820

Combined PnL-$182.1

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR arcsine-barrister	Up	$7.6K	$7.6K	+$10.42	56% 3642-2827 (6469)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.2¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$21.16	93% 23399-1767 (25166)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 78¢	$456.21	$450.13	-$6.08	68% 99316-47652 (146968)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$261.81	$219.12	-$42.69	62% 28550-17836 (46386)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.8¢	$150.8	$219.12	+$68.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.7¢	$111	—	-$111
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 57.6¢	$182.68	$208.45	+$25.77	54% 8009-6715 (14724)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69¢	$164.27	$178.4	+$14.13	49% 5238-5365 (10603)
SP spartacray	Upavg 68.4¢	$157.94	$184.99	+$27.05	53% 27196-24172 (51368)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 59.7¢	$134.35	$225.16	+$90.81	58% 60512-44183 (104695)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 73.2¢	$132.6	$138.17	+$5.56	56% 58027-44801 (102828)
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 66.7¢	$114.81	$111.25	-$3.56	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.7¢	$74.2	$111.25	+$37.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 24.4¢	$40.61	—	-$40.61
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 41.2¢	$131.1	$99.26	-$31.84	55% 7431-6093 (13524)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.8¢	$63.35	$99.26	+$35.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.2¢	$67.75	—	-$67.75
ohioism	Upavg 75¢	$112.56	$150.08	+$37.52	64% 40076-22914 (62990)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.9¢	$100.33	$113.98	+$13.65	60% 12220-8081 (20301)
KA Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100	Downavg 49.4¢	$160.2	$56.4	-$103.8	55% 17762-14385 (32147)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.4¢	$123	—	-$123
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$37.2	$56.4	+$19.2
13 13897651	Upavg 49.3¢	$93.32	$176.5	+$83.18	59% 6765-4727 (11492)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Downavg 35.1¢	$79.61	—	-$79.61	57% 12011-9005 (21016)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 81.1¢	$55.44	$60.08	+$4.64	66% 125490-64588 (190078)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 90¢	$54	$60	+$6	57% 10314-7744 (18058)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 75¢	$45	$60	+$15	65% 125137-66970 (192107)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 1.6¢	$39.45	—	-$39.45	59% 62205-43384 (105589)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 64¢	$21.34	$22	+$0.66	57% 7855-6024 (13879)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 59¢	$17.7	$30	+$12.3	64% 23076-12710 (35786)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 41.7¢	$39.84	—	-$39.84	66% 112118-58522 (170640)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$14.3	—	-$14.3	51% 17087-16626 (33713)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 83.1¢	$31.6	$15	-$1.05	61% 94821-59772 (154593)

arcsine-barrister

Invested

$7,563.31

Value

$7.6K

PnL

+$10.42

Record

56%

3642-2827 (6469)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,146.39

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$21.16

Record

93%

23399-1767 (25166)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$456.21

Value

$450.13

PnL

-$6.08

Record

68%

99316-47652 (146968)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$261.81

Value

$219.12

PnL

-$42.69

Record

62%

28550-17836 (46386)

Both legs:

Up$150.868.8¢+$68.31

Down$11124.7¢-$111

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$182.68

Value

$208.45

PnL

+$25.77

Record

54%

8009-6715 (14724)

ply-pm0

Invested

$164.27

Value

$178.4

PnL

+$14.13

Record

49%

5238-5365 (10603)

spartacray

Invested

$157.94

Value

$184.99

PnL

+$27.05

Record

53%

27196-24172 (51368)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$134.35

Value

$225.16

PnL

+$90.81

Record

58%

60512-44183 (104695)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$132.6

Value

$138.17

PnL

+$5.56

Record

56%

58027-44801 (102828)

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$114.81

Value

$111.25

PnL

-$3.56

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

Both legs:

Up$74.266.7¢+$37.05

Down$40.6124.4¢-$40.61

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$131.1

Value

$99.26

PnL

-$31.84

Record

55%

7431-6093 (13524)

Both legs:

Up$63.3563.8¢+$35.92

Down$67.7541.2¢-$67.75

ohioism

Invested

$112.56

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$37.52

Record

64%

40076-22914 (62990)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$100.33

Value

$113.98

PnL

+$13.65

Record

60%

12220-8081 (20301)

Kathod-Shi-14ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.2

Value

$56.4

PnL

-$103.8

Record

55%

17762-14385 (32147)

Both legs:

Down$12349.4¢-$123

Up$37.266¢+$19.2

13897651

Invested

$93.32

Value

$176.5

PnL

+$83.18

Record

59%

6765-4727 (11492)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$79.61

Value

—

PnL

-$79.61

Record

57%

12011-9005 (21016)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$55.44

Value

$60.08

PnL

+$4.64

Record

66%

125490-64588 (190078)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$60

PnL

+$6

Record

57%

10314-7744 (18058)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$45

Value

$60

PnL

+$15

Record

65%

125137-66970 (192107)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.45

Value

—

PnL

-$39.45

Record

59%

62205-43384 (105589)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$21.34

Value

$22

PnL

+$0.66

Record

57%

7855-6024 (13879)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$30

PnL

+$12.3

Record

64%

23076-12710 (35786)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.84

Value

—

PnL

-$39.84

Record

66%

112118-58522 (170640)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.3

Value

—

PnL

-$14.3

Record

51%

17087-16626 (33713)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$31.6

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.05

Record

61%

94821-59772 (154593)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5e07cd9f...51f2a9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793357700

Traders in this Market

arcsine-barrister

Up — $7.6K

+$10.42

hoodquant

Up — $1.2K

+$21.16

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $450.13

-$6.08

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$42.69

sfkjbsr457

Up — $208.45

+$25.77

ply-pm0

Up — $178.4

+$14.13

spartacray

Up — $184.99

+$27.05

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Up — $225.16

+$90.81

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $138.17

std0

Arbitrage — excluded