Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 65%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

$146.47

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up16 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares2,987

Combined PnL+$272.44

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares778

Combined PnL-$125.97

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$799.47	$807.55	+$8.08	56% 29355-23030 (52385)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$810.81	$819	+$8.19	93% 23362-1766 (25128)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 83.6¢	$307.88	$290.27	-$17.61	54% 8003-6700 (14703)
└ Up leg	Upavg 83.6¢	$242.62	$290.27	+$47.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 14.8¢	$65.26	—	-$65.26
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 80.3¢	$206.19	$221.05	+$14.86	55% 7423-6081 (13504)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 80.3¢	$149.12	$185.74	+$36.62	57% 12004-8991 (20995)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$163.98	$143.95	-$20.02	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
└ Up leg	Upavg 90.5¢	$130.27	$143.95	+$13.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.1¢	$33.7	—	-$33.7
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 52.3¢	$156.8	$300	+$143.2	48% 23255-25558 (48813)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 87.9¢	$160.93	$183	+$22.07	55% 44823-37286 (82109)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.7¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2942-1054 (3996)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 81.4¢	$136.57	$134.36	-$2.21	49% 5226-5356 (10582)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 46¢	$120.85	$100.41	-$20.45	57% 7832-6013 (13845)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53¢	$53.17	$100.41	+$47.23
└ Down leg	Downavg 46¢	$67.68	—	-$67.68
GA gansinimen	Upavg 85¢	$85.57	$100.67	+$15.1	51% 17080-16620 (33700)
SP spartacray<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$77.77	$78.39	+$0.62	53% 27153-24147 (51300)
ST std0<$100	Upavg 96.4¢	$59.45	$60	+$0.55	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$49.58	—	-$49.58	59% 6754-4717 (11471)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$32.45	—	-$32.45	55% 8627-7074 (15701)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 89.1¢	$31.37	$35.19	+$3.82	66% 125488-64588 (190076)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$16.95	—	-$16.95	46% 7894-9296 (17190)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 83.8¢	$16.75	$20	+$3.25	55% 23862-19281 (43143)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 51¢	$12.76	$25.02	+$12.26	58% 50978-37126 (88104)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 81¢	$5	$6.17	+$1.17	66% 112105-58496 (170601)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 54¢	$5.71	$10.57	+$4.86	64% 23032-12691 (35723)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 16.8¢	$5.09	—	-$5.09	60% 12206-8074 (20280)
PA Parad0XCTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$3	—	-$3	56% 2198-1710 (3908)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 19.9¢	$2.28	—	-$2.28	52% 90207-84703 (174910)

THG.

Invested

$799.47

Value

$807.55

PnL

+$8.08

Record

56%

29355-23030 (52385)

hoodquant

Invested

$810.81

Value

$819

PnL

+$8.19

Record

93%

23362-1766 (25128)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$307.88

Value

$290.27

PnL

-$17.61

Record

54%

8003-6700 (14703)

Both legs:

Up$242.6283.6¢+$47.65

Down$65.2614.8¢-$65.26

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$206.19

Value

$221.05

PnL

+$14.86

Record

55%

7423-6081 (13504)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$149.12

Value

$185.74

PnL

+$36.62

Record

57%

12004-8991 (20995)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Invested

$163.98

Value

$143.95

PnL

-$20.02

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Both legs:

Up$130.2790.5¢+$13.68

Down$33.717.1¢-$33.7

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$156.8

Value

$300

PnL

+$143.2

Record

48%

23255-25558 (48813)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$160.93

Value

$183

PnL

+$22.07

Record

55%

44823-37286 (82109)

Vega7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2942-1054 (3996)

ply-pm0

Invested

$136.57

Value

$134.36

PnL

-$2.21

Record

49%

5226-5356 (10582)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.85

Value

$100.41

PnL

-$20.45

Record

57%

7832-6013 (13845)

Both legs:

Up$53.1753¢+$47.23

Down$67.6846¢-$67.68

gansinimen

Invested

$85.57

Value

$100.67

PnL

+$15.1

Record

51%

17080-16620 (33700)

spartacray<$100

Invested

$77.77

Value

$78.39

PnL

+$0.62

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

std0<$100

Invested

$59.45

Value

$60

PnL

+$0.55

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$49.58

Value

—

PnL

-$49.58

Record

59%

6754-4717 (11471)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.45

Value

—

PnL

-$32.45

Record

55%

8627-7074 (15701)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$31.37

Value

$35.19

PnL

+$3.82

Record

66%

125488-64588 (190076)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.95

Value

—

PnL

-$16.95

Record

46%

7894-9296 (17190)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$16.75

Value

$20

PnL

+$3.25

Record

55%

23862-19281 (43143)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$12.76

Value

$25.02

PnL

+$12.26

Record

58%

50978-37126 (88104)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

Value

$6.17

PnL

+$1.17

Record

66%

112105-58496 (170601)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$5.71

Value

$10.57

PnL

+$4.86

Record

64%

23032-12691 (35723)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.09

Value

—

PnL

-$5.09

Record

60%

12206-8074 (20280)

Parad0XCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

56%

2198-1710 (3908)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.28

Value

—

PnL

-$2.28

Record

52%

90207-84703 (174910)

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xc57c57a1...216d60

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793352300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $807.55

+$8.08

hoodquant

Up — $819

+$8.19

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$17.61

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $221.05

+$14.86

EZTRADENL2

Up — $185.74

+$36.62

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$20.02

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $300

+$143.2

MayorMamdani

Up — $183

+$22.07

Vega7

CTR

Down — $0

-$15

ply-pm0

Up — $134.36

-$2.21

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