Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 88% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 88%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$297.79

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 26 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down23 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares7,831

Combined PnL+$485.23

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares609

Combined PnL-$187.44

Down — 88%Up — 12%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$3.55	59% 62201-43367 (105568)
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$16.25	56% 29355-23030 (52385)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 96.5¢	$456.25	$473	+$16.75	93% 23362-1766 (25128)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 75.3¢	$341.05	$394.16	+$53.11	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 70.5¢	$171.83	$243.07	+$71.24	60% 12206-8074 (20280)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 69.2¢	$147.76	$206.2	+$58.44	51% 17080-16620 (33700)
13 13897651	Downavg 65.4¢	$232.76	$356.11	+$123.35	59% 6754-4717 (11471)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 81.8¢	$166.79	$203.82	+$37.03	55% 44823-37286 (82109)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 39¢	$117	—	-$117	48% 23255-25558 (48813)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 68.6¢	$120.73	$127.87	+$7.14	54% 8003-6700 (14703)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.6¢	$87.71	$127.87	+$40.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.7¢	$33.02	—	-$33.02
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 87¢	$102.35	$114.13	+$11.79	58% 60496-44176 (104672)
ST std0	Downavg 84.3¢	$108.46	$120	+$11.54	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 76.2¢	$97.43	$115.33	+$17.9	49% 5226-5356 (10582)
SP spartacray	Downavg 81.3¢	$90.08	$105.6	+$15.52	53% 27153-24147 (51300)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 89.8¢	$108.83	$64.92	-$43.9	55% 7423-6081 (13504)
└ Down leg	Downavg 89.8¢	$58.31	$64.92	+$6.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.7¢	$50.52	—	-$50.52
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 62.9¢	$64.95	$83	+$18.05	57% 7832-6013 (13845)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 33.9¢	$68.94	—	-$68.94	57% 12004-8991 (20995)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 94.7¢	$56.75	$56.18	-$0.57	52% 90207-84703 (174910)
└ Down leg	Downavg 94.7¢	$53.19	$56.18	+$2.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 1.9¢	$3.56	—	-$3.56
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Downavg 97¢	$58.2	$60	+$1.8	57% 10305-7738 (18043)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 87.3¢	$39.83	$44.47	+$5.16	61% 94795-59739 (154534)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$27.21	$38.11	+$10.9	66% 125488-64588 (190076)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 81.9¢	$31.28	$37.66	+$6.37	55% 8627-7074 (15701)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	56% 58006-44794 (102800)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 87¢	$24.99	$17	-$7.99	65% 125105-66947 (192052)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 75¢	$14.66	$19.48	+$4.82	66% 112105-58496 (170601)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,543.93

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$3.55

Record

59%

62201-43367 (105568)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,608.49

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$16.25

Record

56%

29355-23030 (52385)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$456.25

Value

$473

PnL

+$16.75

Record

93%

23362-1766 (25128)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$341.05

Value

$394.16

PnL

+$53.11

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$171.83

Value

$243.07

PnL

+$71.24

Record

60%

12206-8074 (20280)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$147.76

Value

$206.2

PnL

+$58.44

Record

51%

17080-16620 (33700)

13897651

Down

Invested

$232.76

Value

$356.11

PnL

+$123.35

Record

59%

6754-4717 (11471)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$166.79

Value

$203.82

PnL

+$37.03

Record

55%

44823-37286 (82109)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$117

Value

—

PnL

-$117

Record

48%

23255-25558 (48813)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$120.73

Value

$127.87

PnL

+$7.14

Record

54%

8003-6700 (14703)

Both legs:

Down$87.7168.6¢+$40.16

Up$33.0215.7¢-$33.02

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$102.35

Value

$114.13

PnL

+$11.79

Record

58%

60496-44176 (104672)

std0

Down

Invested

$108.46

Value

$120

PnL

+$11.54

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$97.43

Value

$115.33

PnL

+$17.9

Record

49%

5226-5356 (10582)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$90.08

Value

$105.6

PnL

+$15.52

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$108.83

Value

$64.92

PnL

-$43.9

Record

55%

7423-6081 (13504)

Both legs:

Down$58.3189.8¢+$6.62

Up$50.5221.7¢-$50.52

wzbbb<$100

Down

Invested

$64.95

Value

$83

PnL

+$18.05

Record

57%

7832-6013 (13845)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$68.94

Value

—

PnL

-$68.94

Record

57%

12004-8991 (20995)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$56.75

Value

$56.18

PnL

-$0.57

Record

52%

90207-84703 (174910)

Both legs:

Down$53.1994.7¢+$2.99

Up$3.561.9¢-$3.56

trdyugiolkw<$100

Down

Invested

$58.2

Value

$60

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

10305-7738 (18043)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$39.83

Value

$44.47

PnL

+$5.16

Record

61%

94795-59739 (154534)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$27.21

Value

$38.11

PnL

+$10.9

Record

66%

125488-64588 (190076)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$31.28

Value

$37.66

PnL

+$6.37

Record

55%

8627-7074 (15701)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

58006-44794 (102800)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$24.99

Value

$17

PnL

-$7.99

Record

65%

125105-66947 (192052)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$14.66

Value

$19.48

PnL

+$4.82

Record

66%

112105-58496 (170601)

Smart Money Signal

Down

23 of 26 top traders (88%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xfe0ce51d...96d562

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793352000

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.5K

+$3.55

THG.

Down — $1.6K

+$16.25

hoodquant

Down — $473

+$16.75

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $394.16

+$53.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $243.07

+$71.24

gansinimen

Down — $206.2

+$58.44

13897651

Down — $356.11

+$123.35

MayorMamdani

Down — $203.82

+$37.03

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded