Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET

Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$122.4

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 14 top traders (79%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,028

Combined PnL+$168.27

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares91

Combined PnL-$45.87

Down — 79%Up — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$433.6	$443.65	+$10.05	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.2¢	$249.21	$443.65	+$194.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.7¢	$184.39	—	-$184.39
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 71.2¢	$251.8	$246.15	-$5.65	55% 7423-6081 (13504)
13 13897651	Downavg 49.2¢	$188.74	$239.3	+$50.56	59% 6754-4717 (11471)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58.6¢	$186.42	$208.16	+$21.73	49% 5226-5356 (10582)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.6¢	$121.91	$208.16	+$86.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.9¢	$64.51	—	-$64.51
ST std0ARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$207.2	$178.99	-$28.21	67% 53242-26652 (79894)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.4¢	$102.73	$178.99	+$76.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$104.47	—	-$104.47
SP spartacrayARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$223.92	$158.22	-$65.7	53% 27153-24147 (51300)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.8¢	$97.77	$158.22	+$60.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$126.15	—	-$126.15
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 37.8¢	$156.55	$137.5	-$17.05	60% 12206-8074 (20280)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.6¢	$73.7	$137.5	+$63.8
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.8¢	$80.96	—	-$80.85
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 61.5¢	$157.89	$135.36	-$22.53	57% 7832-6013 (13845)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.5¢	$83.31	$135.36	+$52.05
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.4¢	$74.58	—	-$74.58
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 99¢	$148.58	$150.08	+$1.5	56% 58006-44794 (102800)
TR trdyugiolkw	Downavg 60.2¢	$72.88	$116	+$43.12	57% 10305-7738 (18043)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 54.1¢	$121.17	$30.44	-$90.73	57% 12004-8991 (20995)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.1¢	$105.78	—	-$105.78
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$15.39	$30.44	+$15.05
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 64¢	$112.75	$54.94	-$57.81	54% 8003-6700 (14703)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64¢	$87.61	—	-$87.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$25.13	$54.94	+$29.8
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$73.82	$64.98	-$8.84	66% 112105-58496 (170601)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.9¢	$36.94	$64.98	+$28.04
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.5¢	$36.88	—	-$36.88
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 69.4¢	$47.01	$54.72	+$7.71	66% 125488-64588 (190076)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 60¢	$36	$60	+$24	65% 125105-66947 (192052)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$51.21	$43.66	-$7.55	55% 44823-37286 (82109)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 63¢	$35.44	$50	+$14.56	55% 8627-7074 (15701)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 35¢	$22.75	$51.57	+$28.82	64% 40063-22906 (62969)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 30.9¢	$21.39	—	-$21.39	64% 23032-12691 (35723)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 58.7¢	$15.1	—	-$15.1	55% 23862-19281 (43143)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 26.2¢	$9.39	—	-$9.39	52% 90207-84703 (174910)
NO Nobey1<$100	Downavg 32¢	$3.2	$9.99	+$6.8	40% 485-715 (1200)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 37¢	$2.59	$7	+$4.41	61% 94795-59739 (154534)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$433.6

Value

$443.65

PnL

+$10.05

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Both legs:

Down$249.2156.2¢+$194.44

Up$184.3955.7¢-$184.39

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$251.8

Value

$246.15

PnL

-$5.65

Record

55%

7423-6081 (13504)

13897651

Down

Invested

$188.74

Value

$239.3

PnL

+$50.56

Record

59%

6754-4717 (11471)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$186.42

Value

$208.16

PnL

+$21.73

Record

49%

5226-5356 (10582)

Both legs:

Down$121.9158.6¢+$86.25

Up$64.5143.9¢-$64.51

std0ARB<$100

Invested

$207.2

Value

$178.99

PnL

-$28.21

Record

67%

53242-26652 (79894)

Both legs:

Down$102.7357.4¢+$76.26

Up$104.4763.7¢-$104.47

spartacrayARB<$100

Invested

$223.92

Value

$158.22

PnL

-$65.7

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

Both legs:

Down$97.7761.8¢+$60.45

Up$126.1561.8¢-$126.15

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$156.55

Value

$137.5

PnL

-$17.05

Record

60%

12206-8074 (20280)

Both legs:

Invested

$157.89

Value

$135.36

PnL

-$22.53

Record

57%

7832-6013 (13845)

Both legs:

Down$83.3161.5¢+$52.05

Up$74.5843.4¢-$74.58

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$148.58

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$1.5

Record

56%

58006-44794 (102800)

trdyugiolkw

Down

Invested

$72.88

Value

$116

PnL

+$43.12

Record

57%

10305-7738 (18043)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$121.17

Value

$30.44

PnL

-$90.73

Record

57%

12004-8991 (20995)

Both legs:

Up$105.7854.1¢-$105.78

Down$15.3950.5¢+$15.05

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$112.75

Value

$54.94

PnL

-$57.81

Record

54%

8003-6700 (14703)

Both legs:

Up$87.6164¢-$87.61

Down$25.1345.7¢+$29.8

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$73.82

Value

$64.98

PnL

-$8.84

Record

66%

112105-58496 (170601)

Both legs:

Down$36.9456.9¢+$28.04

Up$36.8845.5¢-$36.88

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$47.01

Value

$54.72

PnL

+$7.71

Record

66%

125488-64588 (190076)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$36

Value

$60

PnL

+$24

Record

65%

125105-66947 (192052)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$51.21

Value

$43.66

PnL

-$7.55

Record

55%

44823-37286 (82109)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$35.44

Value

$50

PnL

+$14.56

Record

55%

8627-7074 (15701)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$22.75

Value

$51.57

PnL

+$28.82

Record

64%

40063-22906 (62969)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$21.39

Value

—

PnL

-$21.39

Record

64%

23032-12691 (35723)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$15.1

Value

—

PnL

-$15.1

Record

55%

23862-19281 (43143)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$9.39

Value

—

PnL

-$9.39

Record

52%

90207-84703 (174910)

Nobey1<$100

Down

Invested

$3.2

Value

$9.99

PnL

+$6.8

Record

40%

485-715 (1200)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$2.59

Value

PnL

+$4.41

Record

61%

94795-59739 (154534)

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 14 top traders (79%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb67bfff8...000dc9

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793351700

Traders in this Market

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$10.05

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $246.15

-$5.65

13897651

Down — $239.3

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

std0

Arbitrage — excluded

spartacray

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down — $150.08

+$1.5

trdyugiolkw

Down — $116

+$43.12

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