Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET

Resolved Down. 46% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.2K

Combined PnL

$4.9K

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 28 top traders (46%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$14.6K

Total Shares14,636

Combined PnL+$6.5K

Up15 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,456

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Down — 46%Up — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO borderlocket	Downavg 53.7¢	$4.4K	$8.2K	+$3.8K	49% 59-62 (121)
OX oxe78sh4w98	Downavg 55.2¢	$1.7K	$3.0K	+$1.3K	52% 386-359 (745)
31 3123123121313	Downavg 57.3¢	$878.71	$1.5K	+$653.85	56% 663-531 (1194)
0X 0xdc27...afdd9a	Downavg 54¢	$485.72	$899.25	+$413.53	53% 2003-1807 (3810)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 40.8¢	$606.49	$450.45	-$156.04	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.1¢	$302.2	$450.45	+$148.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.8¢	$304.29	—	-$304.29
Atomforge	Downavg 66.3¢	$517.45	$780.95	+$263.5	65% 4034-2181 (6215)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 46.6¢	$303.49	—	-$303.49	59% 6740-4711 (11451)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$295.93	$220.74	-$75.2	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.9¢	$174.13	$220.74	+$46.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.6¢	$121.8	—	-$121.8
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 67¢	$242.4	$243.98	+$1.58	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$163.47	$243.98	+$80.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$78.93	—	-$78.93
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 85.5¢	$226.73	$196.18	-$30.56	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.5¢	$167.8	$196.18	+$28.37
└ Up leg	Upavg 30.5¢	$58.93	—	-$58.93
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 70.8¢	$193.74	$150.97	-$42.77	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.8¢	$106.83	$150.97	+$44.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 40¢	$86.91	—	-$86.91
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 99¢	$142	$100	-$42	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
└ Down leg	Downavg 99¢	$99	$100	+$1
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$43	—	-$43
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$118.37	$120.41	+$2.04	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$91.93	$120.41	+$28.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.4¢	$26.44	—	-$26.44
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$108.61	$67.21	-$41.4	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.5¢	$68.82	—	-$68.82
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$39.79	$67.21	+$27.42
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 49.6¢	$89.2	—	-$89.2	55% 44800-37263 (82063)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 51.9¢	$72.64	—	-$72.64	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 37.9¢	$48.86	—	-$48.86	34% 18763-35765 (54528)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Upavg 38.3¢	$65.92	—	-$65.92	57% 7817-5997 (13814)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$67.48	$85.27	+$17.79	56% 57982-44777 (102759)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 35.7¢	$53.5	—	-$53.5	55% 23853-19274 (43127)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 43.7¢	$187.66	—	-$187.66	55% 8617-7064 (15681)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90.2¢	$53.58	$59.42	+$5.84	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$19.8	—	-$19.8	57% 10302-7735 (18037)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 44.5¢	$21.07	—	-$21.07	64% 22980-12672 (35652)
SP spartacrayCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$10.44	—	-$10.44	53% 27153-24147 (51300)

borderlocket

Down

Invested

$4,420.58

Value

$8.2K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

49%

59-62 (121)

oxe78sh4w98

Down

Invested

$1,656.6

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

52%

386-359 (745)

3123123121313

Down

Invested

$878.71

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$653.85

Record

56%

663-531 (1194)

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down

Invested

$485.72

Value

$899.25

PnL

+$413.53

Record

53%

2003-1807 (3810)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$606.49

Value

$450.45

PnL

-$156.04

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

Both legs:

Down$302.267.1¢+$148.24

Up$304.2940.8¢-$304.29

Atomforge

Down

Invested

$517.45

Value

$780.95

PnL

+$263.5

Record

65%

4034-2181 (6215)

13897651CTR

Invested

$303.49

Value

—

PnL

-$303.49

Record

59%

6740-4711 (11451)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$295.93

Value

$220.74

PnL

-$75.2

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

Both legs:

Down$174.1378.9¢+$46.6

Up$121.840.6¢-$121.8

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$242.4

Value

$243.98

PnL

+$1.58

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

Both legs:

Down$163.4767¢+$80.51

Up$78.9340.7¢-$78.93

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.73

Value

$196.18

PnL

-$30.56

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

Both legs:

Down$167.885.5¢+$28.37

Up$58.9330.5¢-$58.93

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$193.74

Value

$150.97

PnL

-$42.77

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

Both legs:

Down$106.8370.8¢+$44.14

Up$86.9140¢-$86.91

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$142

Value

$100

PnL

-$42

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

Both legs:

Down$9999¢+$1

Up$4343¢-$43

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$118.37

Value

$120.41

PnL

+$2.04

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

Both legs:

Down$91.9376.3¢+$28.48

Up$26.4444.4¢-$26.44

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$108.61

Value

$67.21

PnL

-$41.4

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

Both legs:

Up$68.8243.5¢-$68.82

Down$39.7959.2¢+$27.42

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$89.2

Value

—

PnL

-$89.2

Record

55%

44800-37263 (82063)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$72.64

Value

—

PnL

-$72.64

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$48.86

Value

—

PnL

-$48.86

Record

34%

18763-35765 (54528)

wzbbbCTR<$100

Invested

$65.92

Value

—

PnL

-$65.92

Record

57%

7817-5997 (13814)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$67.48

Value

$85.27

PnL

+$17.79

Record

56%

57982-44777 (102759)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$53.5

Value

—

PnL

-$53.5

Record

55%

23853-19274 (43127)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$187.66

Value

—

PnL

-$187.66

Record

55%

8617-7064 (15681)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$53.58

Value

$59.42

PnL

+$5.84

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

—

PnL

-$19.8

Record

57%

10302-7735 (18037)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$21.07

Value

—

PnL

-$21.07

Record

64%

22980-12672 (35652)

spartacrayCTR<$100

Invested

$10.44

Value

—

PnL

-$10.44

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

Smart Money Signal

Down

13 of 28 top traders (46%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x21d8d122...c49363

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793344200

Traders in this Market

borderlocket

Down — $8.2K

+$3.8K

oxe78sh4w98

Down — $3.0K

+$1.3K

3123123121313

Down — $1.5K

+$653.85

0xdc27...afdd9a

Down — $899.25

+$413.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$156.04

Atomforge

Down — $780.95

13897651

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$30.56

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