Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 79%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.6K

Combined PnL

$575.82

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down20 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares6,256

Combined PnL+$628.77

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares488

Combined PnL-$52.94

Down — 77%Up — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$2.6	59% 62188-43365 (105553)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.7¢	$503.38	$543.1	+$39.72	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b	Downavg 83.2¢	$329.55	$352.49	+$22.94	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 70.7¢	$374.97	$287.27	-$87.7	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.7¢	$203.01	$287.27	+$84.26
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$171.96	—	-$171.96
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 78.4¢	$270.59	$318	+$365.4	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
machinelearned	Downavg 71.4¢	$201.79	$261.71	+$59.92	55% 8617-7064 (15681)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 75.5¢	$214.94	$259.1	+$44.16	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$183.55	$185.4	+$1.85	93% 23323-1765 (25088)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 68.1¢	$184.48	$165.27	-$19.21	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 94.1¢	$168.43	$179.07	+$10.64	55% 44800-37263 (82063)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 74¢	$152.68	$156.1	+$3.42	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 81.8¢	$143.25	$175.13	+$31.87	57% 7817-5997 (13814)
SP spartacray	Downavg 85.7¢	$121.84	$120	-$1.84	53% 27153-24147 (51300)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 87¢	$87.99	$99.99	+$12	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
SI sir-upalot	Downavg 83.5¢	$97.5	$100	+$2.5	55% 23853-19274 (43127)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 44¢	$57.64	$44.79	-$12.85	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$32.92	—	-$32.92
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.2¢	$24.72	$44.79	+$20.07
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 91.7¢	$55	$60	+$5	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
13 13897651	Downavg 53.5¢	$62.03	$115.99	+$53.95	59% 6740-4711 (11451)
FairValueMachine<$100	Downavg 74.6¢	$63.2	$65	+$1.8	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95.6¢	$68.03	$46.18	+$0.65	61% 94766-59706 (154472)
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100	Downavg 77.9¢	$48.8	$45.38	-$3.42	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Upavg 16¢	$34.16	—	-$33.9	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$12.54	—	-$12.54	34% 18763-35765 (54528)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$3	—	-$3	48% 23252-25544 (48796)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 20.7¢	$2.69	—	-$2.69	52% 90179-84671 (174850)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$3,010.61

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$2.6

Record

59%

62188-43365 (105553)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$503.38

Value

$543.1

PnL

+$39.72

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down

Invested

$329.55

Value

$352.49

PnL

+$22.94

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$374.97

Value

$287.27

PnL

-$87.7

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

Both legs:

Down$203.0170.7¢+$84.26

Up$171.9631¢-$171.96

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$270.59

Value

$318

PnL

+$365.4

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$201.79

Value

$261.71

PnL

+$59.92

Record

55%

8617-7064 (15681)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$214.94

Value

$259.1

PnL

+$44.16

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$183.55

Value

$185.4

PnL

+$1.85

Record

93%

23323-1765 (25088)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$184.48

Value

$165.27

PnL

-$19.21

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$168.43

Value

$179.07

PnL

+$10.64

Record

55%

44800-37263 (82063)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$152.68

Value

$156.1

PnL

+$3.42

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$143.25

Value

$175.13

PnL

+$31.87

Record

57%

7817-5997 (13814)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$121.84

Value

$120

PnL

-$1.84

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$87.99

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$12

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

sir-upalot

Down

Invested

$97.5

Value

$100

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

23853-19274 (43127)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$57.64

Value

$44.79

PnL

-$12.85

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

Both legs:

Up$32.9244¢-$32.92

Down$24.7255.2¢+$20.07

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$55

Value

$60

PnL

+$5

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

13897651

Down

Invested

$62.03

Value

$115.99

PnL

+$53.95

Record

59%

6740-4711 (11451)

FairValueMachine<$100

Down

Invested

$63.2

Value

$65

PnL

+$1.8

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$68.03

Value

$46.18

PnL

+$0.65

Record

61%

94766-59706 (154472)

EZTRADENL2<$100

Down

Invested

$48.8

Value

$45.38

PnL

-$3.42

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Invested

$34.16

Value

—

PnL

-$33.9

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Invested

$12.54

Value

—

PnL

-$12.54

Record

34%

18763-35765 (54528)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

48%

23252-25544 (48796)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

—

PnL

-$2.69

Record

52%

90179-84671 (174850)

Smart Money Signal

Down

20 of 26 top traders (77%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xbd8e29da...ef6e65

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793343900

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $3.0K

-$2.6

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $543.1

+$39.72

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Down — $352.49

+$22.94

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$87.7

sfkjbsr457

Down — $318

+$365.4

machinelearned

Down — $261.71

+$59.92

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $259.1

+$44.16

hoodquant

Down — $185.4

+$1.85

GoodFallen

Down — $165.27

-$19.21

MayorMamdani

Down — $179.07

+$10.64

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