Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 41%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$-4.1K

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up13 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares5,267

Combined PnL$-4.3K

Down16 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,129

Combined PnL+$184.26

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Upavg 51.1¢	$1.7K	—	$-1.7K	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 55.6¢	$776.9	$783.57	+$6.67	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
GO GoodFallenCTR	Upavg 51.8¢	$681.51	—	-$681.51	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR	Upavg 48.4¢	$559	—	-$559	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Upavg 35.8¢	$382.02	—	-$367.47	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
FairValueMachineCTR	Upavg 53.9¢	$387.44	—	-$387.44	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 49.7¢	$221.7	$335.62	+$113.92	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
SP spartacray	Downavg 51.7¢	$209.25	$224.2	+$14.94	53% 27153-24147 (51300)
NIULAI4	Downavg 85.3¢	$211.49	$247.96	+$36.47	77% 9388-2814 (12202)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$234.19	$160.52	-$70.06	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.5¢	$127.63	$160.52	+$32.9
└ Up leg	Upavg 34.3¢	$104.84	—	-$102.96
ohioismCTR	Upavg 77.4¢	$232.34	—	-$232.34	64% 40040-22899 (62939)
13 13897651CTR	Upavg 51.7¢	$147.18	—	-$147.18	59% 6740-4711 (11451)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 74.6¢	$160.84	$122.11	-$38.73	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$98	—	-$98	46% 7844-9262 (17106)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 37.4¢	$124.65	$90.06	-$34.6	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65¢	$58.53	$90.06	+$31.53
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$66.12	—	-$66.12
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 40¢	$82.02	$114.02	+$32	55% 23853-19274 (43127)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40¢	$45.57	$114.02	+$68.45
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$36.45	—	-$36.45
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 44.6¢	$50.02	$86.99	+$36.98	57% 7817-5997 (13814)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$70.99	—	-$70.99	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 95.4¢	$84.76	$63.4	-$12.12	61% 94766-59706 (154472)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 61¢	$60.99	—	-$60.99	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 86.3¢	$72.38	$52.78	-$19.6	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 88.1¢	$44.62	$50.65	+$6.03	56% 57982-44777 (102759)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 59¢	$46.83	$50.85	+$4.02	34% 18763-35765 (54528)
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 89.6¢	$33.36	$37.24	+$3.88	55% 44800-37263 (82063)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$12.3	—	-$12.3	50% 7825-7843 (15668)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Invested

$1,679.17

Value

—

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$776.9

Value

$783.57

PnL

+$6.67

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

GoodFallenCTR

Invested

$681.51

Value

—

PnL

-$681.51

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bCTR

Invested

$559

Value

—

PnL

-$559

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Invested

$382.02

Value

—

PnL

-$367.47

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

FairValueMachineCTR

Invested

$387.44

Value

—

PnL

-$387.44

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$221.7

Value

$335.62

PnL

+$113.92

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

spartacray

Down

Invested

$209.25

Value

$224.2

PnL

+$14.94

Record

53%

27153-24147 (51300)

NIULAI4

Down

Invested

$211.49

Value

$247.96

PnL

+$36.47

Record

77%

9388-2814 (12202)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$234.19

Value

$160.52

PnL

-$70.06

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

Both legs:

Down$127.6379.5¢+$32.9

Up$104.8434.3¢-$102.96

ohioismCTR

Invested

$232.34

Value

—

PnL

-$232.34

Record

64%

40040-22899 (62939)

13897651CTR

Invested

$147.18

Value

—

PnL

-$147.18

Record

59%

6740-4711 (11451)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$160.84

Value

$122.11

PnL

-$38.73

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Invested

$98

Value

—

PnL

-$98

Record

46%

7844-9262 (17106)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$124.65

Value

$90.06

PnL

-$34.6

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

Both legs:

Invested

$82.02

Value

$114.02

PnL

+$32

Record

55%

23853-19274 (43127)

Both legs:

Invested

$50.02

Value

$86.99

PnL

+$36.98

Record

57%

7817-5997 (13814)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$70.99

Value

—

PnL

-$70.99

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$84.76

Value

$63.4

PnL

-$12.12

Record

61%

94766-59706 (154472)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

$60.99

Value

—

PnL

-$60.99

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$72.38

Value

$52.78

PnL

-$19.6

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$44.62

Value

$50.65

PnL

+$6.03

Record

56%

57982-44777 (102759)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$46.83

Value

$50.85

PnL

+$4.02

Record

34%

18763-35765 (54528)

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$33.36

Value

$37.24

PnL

+$3.88

Record

55%

44800-37263 (82063)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$12.3

Value

—

PnL

-$12.3

Record

50%

7825-7843 (15668)

Smart Money Signal

13 of 29 top traders (45%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5127692b...d7619f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793343600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.7K

ply-pm0

Down — $783.57

+$6.67

GoodFallen

CTR

Up — $0

-$681.51

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

FairValueMachine

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $335.62

+$113.92

spartacray

Down — $224.2

+$14.94

NIULAI4

Down — $247.96

+$36.47

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$70.06

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