Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 58%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$145.58
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 47.5¢ | $339.91 | $456.46 | +$116.55 | 54% 15508-12949 (28457) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 31.2¢ | $194.54 | $119.99 | -$74.55 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 78.2¢ | $93.89 | $119.99 | +$26.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.2¢ | $100.64 | — | -$100.64 | |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 68¢ | $136.59 | $167.99 | +$31.4 | 62% 28482-17797 (46279) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $133.65 | $135 | +$1.35 | 93% 23323-1765 (25088) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 43.8¢ | $104.44 | $238.41 | +$133.97 | 55% 8617-7064 (15681) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 88¢ | $124.31 | $129 | +$4.69 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 50.5¢ | $115.4 | $141.9 | +$26.5 | 56% 13769-10937 (24706) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.5¢ | $71.71 | $141.9 | +$70.19 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54¢ | $43.69 | — | -$43.69 | |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 40.5¢ | $67.66 | $167.14 | +$99.48 | 57% 12486-9602 (22088) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Downavg 63.9¢ | $95.35 | — | -$95.35 | 59% 6740-4711 (11451) |
SP spartacray<$100 | Upavg 80.5¢ | $65.2 | $80 | +$14.8 | 53% 27153-24147 (51300) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 53.9¢ | $68.75 | $70.27 | +$1.52 | 49% 5215-5347 (10562) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $71.55 | — | -$71.55 | 34% 18763-35765 (54528) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100 | Downavg 58.8¢ | $78.8 | — | -$78.8 | 54% 7994-6689 (14683) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 46.2¢ | $42.93 | $93 | +$50.07 | 60% 12199-8061 (20260) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $34.95 | — | -$34.95 | 46% 7844-9262 (17106) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $5.33 | — | -$5.33 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Downavg 66.8¢ | $36.64 | — | -$36.64 | 57% 11990-8985 (20975) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $31.48 | $38.87 | +$7.39 | 55% 23853-19274 (43127) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $12.25 | $25 | +$12.75 | 50% 7825-7843 (15668) |
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $0.76 | — | -$0.76 | 48% 23252-25544 (48796) |
PA Parad0XCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 56% 2192-1707 (3899) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 478-705 (1183) |
AR arcsine-barrister<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3642-2826 (6468) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $34.65 | — | +$0 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
Invested
$339.91
Value
$456.46
PnL
+$116.55
Record
54%
15508-12949 (28457)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$194.54
Value
$119.99
PnL
-$74.55
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.59
Value
$167.99
PnL
+$31.4
Record
62%
28482-17797 (46279)
Invested
$133.65
Value
$135
PnL
+$1.35
Record
93%
23323-1765 (25088)
machinelearnedInvested
$104.44
Value
$238.41
PnL
+$133.97
Record
55%
8617-7064 (15681)
Invested
$124.31
Value
$129
PnL
+$4.69
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$115.4
Value
$141.9
PnL
+$26.5
Record
56%
13769-10937 (24706)
Both legs:
FairValueMachineInvested
$67.66
Value
$167.14
PnL
+$99.48
Record
57%
12486-9602 (22088)
Invested
$95.35
Value
—
PnL
-$95.35
Record
59%
6740-4711 (11451)
Invested
$65.2
Value
$80
PnL
+$14.8
Record
53%
27153-24147 (51300)
Invested
$68.75
Value
$70.27
PnL
+$1.52
Record
49%
5215-5347 (10562)
Invested
$71.55
Value
—
PnL
-$71.55
Record
34%
18763-35765 (54528)
Invested
$78.8
Value
—
PnL
-$78.8
Record
54%
7994-6689 (14683)
Invested
$42.93
Value
$93
PnL
+$50.07
Record
60%
12199-8061 (20260)
Invested
$34.95
Value
—
PnL
-$34.95
Record
46%
7844-9262 (17106)
Invested
$5.33
Value
—
PnL
-$5.33
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$36.64
Value
—
PnL
-$36.64
Record
57%
11990-8985 (20975)
Invested
$31.48
Value
$38.87
PnL
+$7.39
Record
55%
23853-19274 (43127)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$25
PnL
+$12.75
Record
50%
7825-7843 (15668)
Invested
$0.76
Value
—
PnL
-$0.76
Record
48%
23252-25544 (48796)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
56%
2192-1707 (3899)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
478-705 (1183)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3642-2826 (6468)
Invested
$34.65
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $456.46
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Up — $167.99
hoodquant
Up — $135
machinelearned
Up — $238.41
wzbbb
Up — $129
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
FairValueMachine
Up — $167.14
13897651
CTRDown — $0
spartacray
Up — $80