Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET
Resolved Up. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 75%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$22.15
Smart Money Signal
15 of 23 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | -$43.03 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Upavg 91.2¢ | $378.43 | $400.76 | +$22.33 | 62% 28482-17797 (46279) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 91.8¢ | $216.44 | $224.98 | +$8.55 | 54% 7994-6689 (14683) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 83.5¢ | $146.96 | $176 | +$29.04 | 57% 11990-8985 (20975) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 86.2¢ | $122.35 | $127.64 | +$5.29 | 60% 12199-8061 (20260) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $96.24 | $90 | -$6.24 | 49% 5215-5347 (10562) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Upavg 56.6¢ | $75.2 | $75.88 | +$0.68 | 59% 6740-4711 (11451) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 56.6¢ | $42.97 | $75.88 | +$32.91 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48¢ | $32.23 | — | -$32.23 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 96.5¢ | $62.77 | $64.5 | +$1.73 | 65% 125073-66927 (192000) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 90¢ | $55.57 | $56 | +$0.43 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
SI sir-upalot | Upavg 84.5¢ | $84.5 | $100 | +$15.5 | 55% 23853-19274 (43127) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions<$100 | Upavg 92.4¢ | $34.47 | $35 | +$0.53 | 54% 15508-12949 (28457) |
TR trdyugiolkw<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $57.12 | $66 | +$8.88 | 57% 10302-7735 (18037) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $41.06 | $44 | +$2.94 | 55% 7409-6075 (13484) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 16¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 58% 12637-9327 (21964) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 79¢ | $20.54 | $26 | +$5.46 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 7.1¢ | $15.47 | — | -$15.47 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.9¢ | $3.38 | — | -$3.38 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $17 | $20 | +$3 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 78¢ | $7.28 | $9.34 | +$2.06 | 56% 57982-44777 (102759) |
 FairValueMachineCTR<$100 | Downavg 14¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 57% 12486-9602 (22088) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.6¢ | $14.2 | — | -$3.25 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
GO GoodFallenCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | 56% 13769-10937 (24706) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 478-705 (1183) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3642-2826 (6468) |
Invested
$2,104.27
Value
$2.1K
PnL
-$43.03
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$378.43
Value
$400.76
PnL
+$22.33
Record
62%
28482-17797 (46279)
Invested
$216.44
Value
$224.98
PnL
+$8.55
Record
54%
7994-6689 (14683)
Invested
$146.96
Value
$176
PnL
+$29.04
Record
57%
11990-8985 (20975)
Invested
$122.35
Value
$127.64
PnL
+$5.29
Record
60%
12199-8061 (20260)
Invested
$96.24
Value
$90
PnL
-$6.24
Record
49%
5215-5347 (10562)
Invested
$75.2
Value
$75.88
PnL
+$0.68
Record
59%
6740-4711 (11451)
Both legs:
Invested
$62.77
Value
$64.5
PnL
+$1.73
Record
65%
125073-66927 (192000)
Invested
$55.57
Value
$56
PnL
+$0.43
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$84.5
Value
$100
PnL
+$15.5
Record
55%
23853-19274 (43127)
Invested
$34.47
Value
$35
PnL
+$0.53
Record
54%
15508-12949 (28457)
Invested
$57.12
Value
$66
PnL
+$8.88
Record
57%
10302-7735 (18037)
Invested
$41.06
Value
$44
PnL
+$2.94
Record
55%
7409-6075 (13484)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
58%
12637-9327 (21964)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$20.54
Value
$26
PnL
+$5.46
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$15.47
Value
—
PnL
-$15.47
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Invested
$3.38
Value
—
PnL
-$3.38
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
Invested
$17
Value
$20
PnL
+$3
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$7.28
Value
$9.34
PnL
+$2.06
Record
56%
57982-44777 (102759)
FairValueMachineCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
57%
12486-9602 (22088)
Invested
$14.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
56%
13769-10937 (24706)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
478-705 (1183)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3642-2826 (6468)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Up — $2.1K
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Up — $400.76
sfkjbsr457
Up — $224.98
EZTRADENL2
Up — $176
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $127.64
ply-pm0
Up — $90
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $64.5
wzbbb
Up — $56
sir-upalot
Up — $100