Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$12.88

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 17 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,638

Combined PnL+$121.83

Up5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares376

Combined PnL-$134.72

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$650.9	$657.47	+$6.57	93% 23323-1765 (25088)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 63.3¢	$535.58	$697.05	+$161.47	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.3¢	$440.97	$697.05	+$256.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.5¢	$94.61	—	-$94.61
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 76.1¢	$397.38	$322.08	-$75.3	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
└ Up leg	Upavg 25.4¢	$152.42	—	-$152.42
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.1¢	$244.96	$322.08	+$77.12
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 74¢	$295.26	$339.78	+$44.51	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$251.45	$339.78	+$88.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.9¢	$43.82	—	-$43.82
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 59.4¢	$190.38	$197.15	+$6.76	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$73.27	—	-$73.27
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.4¢	$117.11	$197.15	+$80.04
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 87.6¢	$192.51	$214.15	+$21.64	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.6¢	$187.51	$214.15	+$26.64
└ Up leg	Upavg 2.5¢	$5	—	-$5
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 86.4¢	$200.5	$177.26	-$23.24	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 76.3¢	$105.77	$103	-$1.92	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76.3¢	$78.56	$103	+$24.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.4¢	$26.14	—	-$26.36
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 37.3¢	$91.41	$41.38	-$50.03	55% 8617-7064 (15681)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$65.25	—	-$65.25
└ Down leg	Downavg 63.2¢	$26.16	$41.38	+$15.22
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$95.88	$102	+$6.12	57% 7817-5997 (13814)
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$77.53	$102	+$24.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.8¢	$18.36	—	-$18.36
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 89.3¢	$134.29	$150.32	+$16.03	56% 57982-44777 (102759)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 88¢	$132.15	$150.17	+$18.02	58% 60485-44163 (104648)
ohioism	Downavg 87¢	$130.57	$150.08	+$19.51	64% 40040-22899 (62939)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 81.6¢	$96.7	$103.89	+$7.19	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 41.2¢	$62.51	—	-$62.51	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 41.9¢	$71.26	$57.48	-$13.78	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.9¢	$41.65	—	-$41.65
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.5¢	$29.61	$57.48	+$27.86
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 20.2¢	$39.6	—	-$39.6	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 55.5¢	$40.53	$60	+$19.47	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$33.3	$60	+$26.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.4¢	$7.23	—	-$7.23
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 51¢	$40.64	$74.59	+$33.95	59% 6740-4711 (11451)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 78¢	$46.8	$60	+$13.2	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 87¢	$42.81	$49.21	+$6.4	55% 23853-19274 (43127)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 63¢	$31.5	$50	+$18.5	34% 18763-35765 (54528)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$19.59	—	-$19.59	50% 7825-7843 (15668)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 35.9¢	$13.01	—	-$13.01	64% 22980-12672 (35652)
NO Nobey1<$100	Downavg 65¢	$6.5	$10	+$3.5	40% 478-705 (1183)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$650.9

Value

$657.47

PnL

+$6.57

Record

93%

23323-1765 (25088)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$535.58

Value

$697.05

PnL

+$161.47

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

Both legs:

Down$440.9763.3¢+$256.08

Up$94.6129.5¢-$94.61

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$397.38

Value

$322.08

PnL

-$75.3

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

Both legs:

Up$152.4225.4¢-$152.42

Down$244.9676.1¢+$77.12

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$295.26

Value

$339.78

PnL

+$44.51

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Both legs:

Down$251.4574¢+$88.33

Up$43.8216.9¢-$43.82

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$190.38

Value

$197.15

PnL

+$6.76

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

Both legs:

Up$73.2729.3¢-$73.27

Down$117.1159.4¢+$80.04

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.51

Value

$214.15

PnL

+$21.64

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

Both legs:

Down$187.5187.6¢+$26.64

Up$52.5¢-$5

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$200.5

Value

$177.26

PnL

-$23.24

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$105.77

Value

$103

PnL

-$1.92

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

Both legs:

Down$78.5676.3¢+$24.44

Up$26.1421.4¢-$26.36

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$91.41

Value

$41.38

PnL

-$50.03

Record

55%

8617-7064 (15681)

Both legs:

Up$65.2537.3¢-$65.25

Down$26.1663.2¢+$15.22

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$95.88

Value

$102

PnL

+$6.12

Record

57%

7817-5997 (13814)

Both legs:

Down$77.5376¢+$24.47

Up$18.3620.8¢-$18.36

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$134.29

Value

$150.32

PnL

+$16.03

Record

56%

57982-44777 (102759)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$132.15

Value

$150.17

PnL

+$18.02

Record

58%

60485-44163 (104648)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$130.57

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$19.51

Record

64%

40040-22899 (62939)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$96.7

Value

$103.89

PnL

+$7.19

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$62.51

Value

—

PnL

-$62.51

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$71.26

Value

$57.48

PnL

-$13.78

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

Both legs:

Up$41.6541.9¢-$41.65

Down$29.6151.5¢+$27.86

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$39.6

Value

—

PnL

-$39.6

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$40.53

Value

$60

PnL

+$19.47

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

Both legs:

Invested

$40.64

Value

$74.59

PnL

+$33.95

Record

59%

6740-4711 (11451)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$46.8

Value

$60

PnL

+$13.2

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$42.81

Value

$49.21

PnL

+$6.4

Record

55%

23853-19274 (43127)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$31.5

Value

$50

PnL

+$18.5

Record

34%

18763-35765 (54528)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$19.59

Value

—

PnL

-$19.59

Record

50%

7825-7843 (15668)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$13.01

Value

—

PnL

-$13.01

Record

64%

22980-12672 (35652)

Nobey1<$100

Down

Invested

$6.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.5

Record

40%

478-705 (1183)

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 17 top traders (71%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc65f99ce...ea403f

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793342700

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $657.47

+$6.57

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Down — $177.26

-$23.24

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

wzbbb

Arbitrage — excluded