Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$38.19
Smart Money Signal
14 of 23 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 58.1¢ | $527.1 | $482.04 | -$45.05 | 54% 15508-12949 (28457) |
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b | Downavg 69.2¢ | $363.78 | $482.53 | +$118.75 | 62% 28482-17797 (46279) |
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489 | Downavg 99¢ | $396 | $400 | +$4 | 79% 170-46 (216) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96¢ | $358.65 | $373.5 | +$14.85 | 93% 23323-1765 (25088) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 22.6¢ | $234.35 | $242.68 | +$21.77 | 64% 58239-32920 (91159) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 42.7¢ | $103.57 | $242.68 | +$146.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 22.6¢ | $124.81 | — | -$124.81 | |
SH Sharky6999 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $269.88 | $270.15 | +$0.27 | 98% 6857-164 (7021) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 54.2¢ | $159.27 | $210.45 | +$51.18 | 56% 13769-10937 (24706) |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 62.8¢ | $152.4 | $153.2 | +$0.79 | 49% 5215-5347 (10562) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Downavg 85.8¢ | $165.13 | $127.42 | -$37.71 | 60% 12199-8061 (20260) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.6¢ | $52.4 | — | -$52.4 | 57% 11990-8985 (20975) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $10.02 | — | -$10.02 | 59% 62188-43365 (105553) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $59.01 | $39.36 | -$19.66 | 55% 23853-19274 (43127) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 70.2¢ | $68.25 | $97.26 | +$29.01 | 55% 44800-37263 (82063) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 63.1¢ | $56.47 | $70 | +$13.53 | 57% 12486-9602 (22088) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 13.4¢ | $55.1 | — | -$55.1 | 55% 8617-7064 (15681) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 42.6¢ | $19.61 | $34.14 | +$14.53 | 66% 112081-58477 (170558) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 14.4¢ | $19.9 | — | -$19.9 | 57% 7817-5997 (13814) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $36.8 | $49 | +$12.2 | 55% 7409-6075 (13484) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 5.5¢ | $4.68 | — | -$4.68 | 52% 90179-84671 (174850) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $16.4 | $6.87 | +$3.47 | 64% 22980-12672 (35652) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $2.07 | — | -$2.07 | 61% 94766-59706 (154472) |
13 13897651CTR<$100 | Upavg 53.9¢ | $54.2 | — | -$54.2 | 59% 6740-4711 (11451) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | — | — | +$0 | 40% 478-705 (1183) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3642-2826 (6468) |
Invested
$527.1
Value
$482.04
PnL
-$45.05
Record
54%
15508-12949 (28457)
Invested
$363.78
Value
$482.53
PnL
+$118.75
Record
62%
28482-17797 (46279)
Invested
$396
Value
$400
PnL
+$4
Record
79%
170-46 (216)
Invested
$358.65
Value
$373.5
PnL
+$14.85
Record
93%
23323-1765 (25088)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$234.35
Value
$242.68
PnL
+$21.77
Record
64%
58239-32920 (91159)
Both legs:
Invested
$269.88
Value
$270.15
PnL
+$0.27
Record
98%
6857-164 (7021)
Invested
$159.27
Value
$210.45
PnL
+$51.18
Record
56%
13769-10937 (24706)
Invested
$152.4
Value
$153.2
PnL
+$0.79
Record
49%
5215-5347 (10562)
Invested
$165.13
Value
$127.42
PnL
-$37.71
Record
60%
12199-8061 (20260)
Invested
$52.4
Value
—
PnL
-$52.4
Record
57%
11990-8985 (20975)
Invested
$10.02
Value
—
PnL
-$10.02
Record
59%
62188-43365 (105553)
Invested
$59.01
Value
$39.36
PnL
-$19.66
Record
55%
23853-19274 (43127)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$68.25
Value
$97.26
PnL
+$29.01
Record
55%
44800-37263 (82063)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$56.47
Value
$70
PnL
+$13.53
Record
57%
12486-9602 (22088)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$55.1
Value
—
PnL
-$55.1
Record
55%
8617-7064 (15681)
Invested
$19.61
Value
$34.14
PnL
+$14.53
Record
66%
112081-58477 (170558)
Invested
$19.9
Value
—
PnL
-$19.9
Record
57%
7817-5997 (13814)
Invested
$36.8
Value
$49
PnL
+$12.2
Record
55%
7409-6075 (13484)
Invested
$4.68
Value
—
PnL
-$4.68
Record
52%
90179-84671 (174850)
Invested
$16.4
Value
$6.87
PnL
+$3.47
Record
64%
22980-12672 (35652)
Invested
$2.07
Value
—
PnL
-$2.07
Record
61%
94766-59706 (154472)
Invested
$54.2
Value
—
PnL
-$54.2
Record
59%
6740-4711 (11451)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
478-705 (1183)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3642-2826 (6468)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $482.04
0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b
Down — $482.53
0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489
Down — $400
hoodquant
Down — $373.5
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Sharky6999
Down — $270.15
GoodFallen
Down — $210.45
ply-pm0
Down — $153.2
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $127.42
EZTRADENL2
CTRUp — $0