Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 67%

24 arb excluded

Total Value

$61.3K

Combined PnL

$829.89

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,450

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,019

Combined PnL-$312.91

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OX oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100	Upavg 64.4¢	$17.5K	$17.7K	+$209.29	52% 386-359 (745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.4¢	$11.4K	$17.7K	+$6.3K
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.7¢	$6.1K	—	$-6.1K
BO borderlocketARB<$100	Downavg 39.3¢	$18.7K	$8.4K	$-10.2K	49% 59-62 (121)
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.3¢	$12.5K	—	$-12.5K
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$6.2K	$8.4K	+$2.3K
31 3123123121313ARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$47.34	56% 663-531 (1194)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$4.9K	$7.5K	+$2.6K
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.4¢	$2.6K	—	$-2.6K
0X 0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100	Upavg 55.9¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	-$61.72	53% 2003-1807 (3810)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.9¢	$2.6K	$4.7K	+$2.1K
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$2.1K	—	$-2.1K
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$168.2	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$1.5K	$2.4K	+$890.39
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.6¢	$1.1K	—	$-1.1K
AtomforgeARB<$100	Downavg 49.8¢	$2.5K	$2.0K	-$435.44	65% 4034-2181 (6215)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.4¢	$978.84	$2.0K	+$1.0K
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.8¢	$1.5K	—	$-1.5K
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$2.2K	$2.1K	-$149.6	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.9¢	$1.3K	$2.1K	+$776.53
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.4¢	$926.12	—	-$926.12
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Upavg 56.3¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$48.69	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.3¢	$788	$1.4K	+$612
└ Down leg	Downavg 33¢	$660.69	—	-$660.69
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 64.2¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$14.01	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.2¢	$861.7	$1.3K	+$480.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.8¢	$494.81	—	-$494.81
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 31.1¢	$1.2K	$890.56	-$261.51	55% 8617-7064 (15681)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$537.05	$890.56	+$353.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.1¢	$615.02	—	-$615.02
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 64.1¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$152.77	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$658.04	$1.0K	+$367.76
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.9¢	$520.53	—	-$520.53
AL almachARB<$100	Upavg 59.8¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$159.52	55% 48369-39930 (88299)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.8¢	$621.82	$1.0K	+$418.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$578.29	—	-$578.29
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 61.8¢	$1.2K	$994.52	-$178.02	55% 50404-41004 (91408)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.8¢	$614.72	$994.52	+$379.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$557.82	—	-$557.82
Bossgirl	Upavg 58.3¢	$797.29	$1.4K	+$570.7	54% 4621-3929 (8550)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 61¢	$1.0K	$915.89	-$100.7	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61¢	$558.93	$915.89	+$356.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$457.66	—	-$457.66
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$921.63	$970.57	+$48.94	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$640.9	$970.57	+$329.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 37.4¢	$280.73	—	-$280.73
0X 0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489	Upavg 63¢	$676.77	$991	+$314.23	79% 170-46 (216)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 59.9¢	$773.15	$736.19	-$34.26	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.9¢	$441.12	$736.19	+$295.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$330.21	—	-$329.33
FairValueMachine	Upavg 65.3¢	$822.93	$735.08	-$87.85	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
MayorMamdaniARB<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$596.37	$557.68	-$38.7	55% 44800-37263 (82063)
└ Up leg	Upavg 61.4¢	$342.17	$557.68	+$215.51
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.8¢	$254.21	—	-$254.21
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 59.7¢	$545.4	$499.99	-$45.4	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.7¢	$298.59	$499.99	+$201.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.8¢	$246.8	—	-$246.8
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 67.2¢	$566.38	$432.89	-$133.49	55% 23853-19274 (43127)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.2¢	$290.85	$432.89	+$142.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$275.53	—	-$275.53
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 52.2¢	$302.66	$375.64	+$72.98	58% 60485-44163 (104648)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.2¢	$196.1	$375.64	+$179.54
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.5¢	$106.56	—	-$106.56
TR trdyugiolkw	Upavg 64.3¢	$308.49	$357.95	+$49.47	57% 10302-7735 (18037)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 21.6¢	$248.48	$123.69	-$124.79	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
└ Down leg	Downavg 21.6¢	$169.14	—	-$169.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.1¢	$79.34	$123.69	+$44.35

oxe78sh4w98ARB<$100

Invested

$17,488.97

Value

$17.7K

PnL

+$209.29

Record

52%

386-359 (745)

Both legs:

Up$11,391.6764.4¢+$6.3K

Down$6,097.340.7¢$-6.1K

borderlocketARB<$100

Down

Invested

$18,680.02

Value

$8.4K

PnL

$-10.2K

Record

49%

59-62 (121)

Both legs:

Down$12,507.0739.3¢$-12.5K

Up$6,172.9673.1¢+$2.3K

3123123121313ARB<$100

Invested

$7,446.14

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$47.34

Record

56%

663-531 (1194)

Both legs:

Up$4,870.4565¢+$2.6K

Down$2,575.6940.4¢$-2.6K

0xdc27...afdd9aARB<$100

Invested

$4,733.82

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$61.72

Record

53%

2003-1807 (3810)

Both legs:

Up$2,611.8555.9¢+$2.1K

Down$2,121.9739.7¢$-2.1K

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$2,570.56

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$168.2

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

Both legs:

Up$1,511.9762.9¢+$890.39

Down$1,058.5940.6¢$-1.1K

AtomforgeARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,456.13

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$435.44

Record

65%

4034-2181 (6215)

Both legs:

Up$978.8448.4¢+$1.0K

Down$1,477.2949.8¢$-1.5K

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$2,241.74

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$149.6

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

Both legs:

Up$1,315.6262.9¢+$776.53

Down$926.1239.4¢-$926.12

gansinimenARB<$100

Invested

$1,448.69

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$48.69

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

Both legs:

Up$78856.3¢+$612

Down$660.6933¢-$660.69

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$1,356.51

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$14.01

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

Both legs:

Up$861.764.2¢+$480.8

Down$494.8134.8¢-$494.81

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,152.07

Value

$890.56

PnL

-$261.51

Record

55%

8617-7064 (15681)

Both legs:

Up$537.0560.3¢+$353.51

Down$615.0231.1¢-$615.02

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$1,178.57

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$152.77

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

Both legs:

Up$658.0464.1¢+$367.76

Down$520.5337.9¢-$520.53

almachARB<$100

Invested

$1,200.11

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$159.52

Record

55%

48369-39930 (88299)

Both legs:

Up$621.8259.8¢+$418.77

Down$578.2955.6¢-$578.29

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$1,172.54

Value

$994.52

PnL

-$178.02

Record

55%

50404-41004 (91408)

Both legs:

Up$614.7261.8¢+$379.8

Down$557.8255.6¢-$557.82

Bossgirl

Invested

$797.29

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$570.7

Record

54%

4621-3929 (8550)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$1,016.59

Value

$915.89

PnL

-$100.7

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

Both legs:

Up$558.9361¢+$356.96

Down$457.6643.4¢-$457.66

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$921.63

Value

$970.57

PnL

+$48.94

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

Both legs:

Up$640.966¢+$329.67

Down$280.7337.4¢-$280.73

0xd33d0d185cd215162c86cb481cd01acdc7d28489

Invested

$676.77

Value

$991

PnL

+$314.23

Record

79%

170-46 (216)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$773.15

Value

$736.19

PnL

-$34.26

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

Both legs:

Up$441.1259.9¢+$295.07

Down$330.2136.5¢-$329.33

FairValueMachine

Invested

$822.93

Value

$735.08

PnL

-$87.85

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

MayorMamdaniARB<$100

Invested

$596.37

Value

$557.68

PnL

-$38.7

Record

55%

44800-37263 (82063)

Both legs:

Up$342.1761.4¢+$215.51

Down$254.2138.8¢-$254.21

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$545.4

Value

$499.99

PnL

-$45.4

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

Both legs:

Up$298.5959.7¢+$201.4

Down$246.839.8¢-$246.8

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$566.38

Value

$432.89

PnL

-$133.49

Record

55%

23853-19274 (43127)

Both legs:

Up$290.8567.2¢+$142.04

Down$275.5335.5¢-$275.53

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$302.66

Value

$375.64

PnL

+$72.98

Record

58%

60485-44163 (104648)

Both legs:

Up$196.152.2¢+$179.54

Down$106.5635.5¢-$106.56

trdyugiolkw

Invested

$308.49

Value

$357.95

PnL

+$49.47

Record

57%

10302-7735 (18037)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$248.48

Value

$123.69

PnL

-$124.79

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

Both legs:

Down$169.1421.6¢-$169.14

Up$79.3464.1¢+$44.35

Smart Money Signal

12 of 20 top traders (60%)24 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8d7df52f...0cc630

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793342100

Traders in this Market

oxe78sh4w98

Arbitrage — excluded

borderlocket

Arbitrage — excluded

3123123121313

Arbitrage — excluded

0xdc27...afdd9a

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Atomforge

Arbitrage — excluded

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded