Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 24%

13 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$242.93

Smart Money Signal

6 of 19 top traders (32%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down13 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,081

Combined PnL+$570.43

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares653

Combined PnL-$327.5

Down — 68%Up — 32%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 45.1¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$202.1	54% 15508-12949 (28457)
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.1¢	$566.52	$1.3K	+$689.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$487.78	—	-$487.78
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 57.6¢	$637.36	$654.98	+$17.62	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 57.6¢	$376.97	$654.98	+$278.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$260.39	—	-$260.39
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 55¢	$448.72	$383.61	-$65.12	56% 13769-10937 (24706)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55¢	$290.24	—	-$290.24
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.3¢	$158.49	$383.61	+$225.12
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 43.4¢	$212.07	$233.06	+$79.79	64% 58239-32920 (91159)
└ Up leg	Upavg 20.7¢	$84.96	—	-$84.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.4¢	$101.08	$233.06	+$164.76
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 43¢	$241.65	$259.77	+$18.12	49% 5215-5347 (10562)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43¢	$142.3	—	-$142.3
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.2¢	$99.34	$259.77	+$160.42
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$252.6	$194.16	-$58.44	54% 7994-6689 (14683)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$191.28	—	-$191.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.6¢	$61.32	$194.16	+$132.84
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$264.91	$156.8	-$108.12	57% 12486-9602 (22088)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$201.41	—	-$201.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.5¢	$63.51	$156.8	+$93.29
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$197.23	$85	-$112.23	59% 6740-4711 (11451)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$150.88	—	-$150.88
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.5¢	$46.35	$85	+$38.65
machinelearned	Downavg 14.1¢	$56.15	$372	+$315.85	55% 8617-7064 (15681)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 77.2¢	$233.89	$102.13	-$131.76	57% 11990-8985 (20975)
└ Up leg	Upavg 77.2¢	$185.2	—	-$185.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.7¢	$48.69	$102.13	+$53.44
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 45¢	$130.1	$147.02	+$16.92	55% 7409-6075 (13484)
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.4¢	$63.97	—	-$63.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 45¢	$66.14	$147.02	+$80.88
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 70¢	$209.87	—	-$209.87	48% 23252-25544 (48796)
AN antsaslyku	Downavg 44.1¢	$129.32	$229.04	+$99.72	66% 112081-58477 (170558)
LI Little-bigCTR	Upavg 50.9¢	$103.35	—	-$103.35	34% 18763-35765 (54528)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Downavg 99¢	$61.8	$60	-$1.8	65% 125073-66927 (192000)
└ Up leg	Upavg 2¢	$2.4	—	-$2.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 99¢	$59.4	$60	+$0.6
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$2.57	—	-$2.57	59% 62188-43365 (105553)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 76.2¢	$57.59	$54.67	-$2.93	57% 7817-5997 (13814)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.2¢	$48.02	—	-$48.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.5¢	$9.58	$54.67	+$45.09
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 46¢	$53.83	$117.05	+$63.22	58% 60485-44163 (104648)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 53.4¢	$61.84	$110	+$48.16	60% 12199-8061 (20260)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 99¢	$99.61	$63	-$34.69	61% 94766-59706 (154472)
DV dvasdkasodkARB<$100	Downavg 88¢	$77.09	$45.07	-$32.02	52% 90179-84671 (174850)
└ Up leg	Upavg 81.9¢	$37.43	—	-$37.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 88¢	$39.66	$45.07	+$5.41
ohioism<$100	Downavg 45¢	$33.83	$75.18	+$41.35	64% 40040-22899 (62939)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 98¢	$44.1	$45	+$0.9	65% 4034-2181 (6215)
GA gansinimen<$100	Downavg 24¢	$5.98	$24.92	+$18.94	51% 17074-16613 (33687)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 54.7¢	$11.71	—	-$11.71	64% 22980-12672 (35652)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,054.3

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$202.1

Record

54%

15508-12949 (28457)

Both legs:

Down$566.5245.1¢+$689.88

Up$487.7853.8¢-$487.78

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$637.36

Value

$654.98

PnL

+$17.62

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Both legs:

Down$376.9757.6¢+$278.01

Up$260.3956.2¢-$260.39

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$448.72

Value

$383.61

PnL

-$65.12

Record

56%

13769-10937 (24706)

Both legs:

Up$290.2455¢-$290.24

Down$158.4941.3¢+$225.12

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$212.07

Value

$233.06

PnL

+$79.79

Record

64%

58239-32920 (91159)

Both legs:

Up$84.9620.7¢-$84.96

Down$101.0843.4¢+$164.76

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$241.65

Value

$259.77

PnL

+$18.12

Record

49%

5215-5347 (10562)

Both legs:

Up$142.343¢-$142.3

Down$99.3438.2¢+$160.42

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$252.6

Value

$194.16

PnL

-$58.44

Record

54%

7994-6689 (14683)

Both legs:

Up$191.2850.8¢-$191.28

Down$61.3231.6¢+$132.84

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$264.91

Value

$156.8

PnL

-$108.12

Record

57%

12486-9602 (22088)

Both legs:

Up$201.4162.3¢-$201.41

Down$63.5140.5¢+$93.29

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$197.23

Value

$85

PnL

-$112.23

Record

59%

6740-4711 (11451)

Both legs:

Up$150.8849.9¢-$150.88

Down$46.3554.5¢+$38.65

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$56.15

Value

$372

PnL

+$315.85

Record

55%

8617-7064 (15681)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$233.89

Value

$102.13

PnL

-$131.76

Record

57%

11990-8985 (20975)

Both legs:

Up$185.277.2¢-$185.2

Down$48.6947.7¢+$53.44

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$130.1

Value

$147.02

PnL

+$16.92

Record

55%

7409-6075 (13484)

Both legs:

Up$63.9737.4¢-$63.97

Down$66.1445¢+$80.88

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$209.87

Value

—

PnL

-$209.87

Record

48%

23252-25544 (48796)

antsaslyku

Down

Invested

$129.32

Value

$229.04

PnL

+$99.72

Record

66%

112081-58477 (170558)

Little-bigCTR

Invested

$103.35

Value

—

PnL

-$103.35

Record

34%

18763-35765 (54528)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61.8

Value

$60

PnL

-$1.8

Record

65%

125073-66927 (192000)

Both legs:

Up$2.42¢-$2.4

Down$59.499¢+$0.6

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$2.57

Value

—

PnL

-$2.57

Record

59%

62188-43365 (105553)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$57.59

Value

$54.67

PnL

-$2.93

Record

57%

7817-5997 (13814)

Both legs:

Up$48.0276.2¢-$48.02

Down$9.5817.5¢+$45.09

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$53.83

Value

$117.05

PnL

+$63.22

Record

58%

60485-44163 (104648)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$61.84

Value

$110

PnL

+$48.16

Record

60%

12199-8061 (20260)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$99.61

Value

$63

PnL

-$34.69

Record

61%

94766-59706 (154472)

dvasdkasodkARB<$100

Down

Invested

$77.09

Value

$45.07

PnL

-$32.02

Record

52%

90179-84671 (174850)

Both legs:

Invested

$33.83

Value

$75.18

PnL

+$41.35

Record

64%

40040-22899 (62939)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$44.1

Value

$45

PnL

+$0.9

Record

65%

4034-2181 (6215)

gansinimen<$100

Down

Invested

$5.98

Value

$24.92

PnL

+$18.94

Record

51%

17074-16613 (33687)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$11.71

Value

—

PnL

-$11.71

Record

64%

22980-12672 (35652)

Smart Money Signal

6 of 19 top traders (32%)13 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x46db5972...63b2f4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793341800

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$202.1

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Down — $372

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded