Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 58%

10 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$200.73

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$779.64

Total Shares780

Combined PnL+$155.62

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares624

Combined PnL-$356.34

Up — 53%Down — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$106.34	54% 15499-12945 (28444)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$552.89	—	-$552.89
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.2¢	$544.49	$1.2K	+$659.23
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 53¢	$414.15	$464.71	+$50.55	49% 5201-5342 (10543)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$458.91	$446.33	-$12.57	56% 13759-10934 (24693)
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$265.24	—	-$265.24
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.4¢	$193.67	$446.33	+$252.67
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$231.4	$219.19	-$12.22	64% 58208-32895 (91103)
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.1¢	$142.2	—	-$142.2
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.7¢	$89.2	$219.19	+$129.98
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 49¢	$244.62	$251.6	+$6.98	57% 12473-9602 (22075)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$131.07	—	-$131.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$113.55	$251.6	+$138.05
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 48.4¢	$229.16	$178.22	-$50.94	55% 7397-6067 (13464)
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.4¢	$142.58	—	-$142.58
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$86.58	$178.22	+$91.64
0X 0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$135.14	$92.58	-$42.57	62% 28482-17797 (46279)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$94.44	—	-$94.44
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$40.7	$92.58	+$51.87
13 13897651CTR	Downavg 62.1¢	$179.31	—	-$179.31	59% 6727-4700 (11427)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 60.3¢	$103.88	$128.49	+$24.62	54% 7981-6681 (14662)
└ Down leg	Downavg 18.8¢	$26.34	—	-$26.34
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.3¢	$77.53	$128.49	+$50.96
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 65.5¢	$167.13	$235.99	+$68.86	60% 12187-8053 (20240)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65.5¢	$154.56	$235.99	+$81.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 20¢	$12.57	—	-$12.57
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$133.77	$245.63	+$111.86	57% 11978-8978 (20956)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$126.5	$245.63	+$119.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 20.6¢	$7.26	—	-$7.26
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$116.55	$201	+$84.45	57% 7798-5980 (13778)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$99.82	$201	+$101.18
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$16.73	—	-$16.73
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 23.9¢	$36.6	—	-$36.6	58% 12626-9308 (21934)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 66¢	$77.74	—	-$77.74	64% 40024-22885 (62909)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 79.4¢	$55.02	—	-$55.02	55% 23844-19265 (43109)
TR trdyugiolkw<$100	Upavg 87¢	$60.9	$70	+$9.1	57% 10301-7732 (18033)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$27.27	$53.57	+$26.3	64% 22926-12644 (35570)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$23.15	$39.33	+$16.18	52% 90141-84640 (174781)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$26.82	$38.78	+$11.96	61% 94725-59677 (154402)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$46.74	$82.38	+$35.64	58% 60468-44149 (104617)
YO YouSayUpISayDown<$100	Upavg 81¢	$24.3	$30	+$5.7	53% 3699-3216 (6915)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 79¢	$0.69	$0.87	+$0.18	55% 50404-41003 (91407)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 35.5¢	$7.69	—	-$7.69	66% 112064-58449 (170513)
NO Nobey1CTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	40% 469-701 (1170)
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100	Down	—	—	+$0	56% 3642-2826 (6468)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,097.38

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$106.34

Record

54%

15499-12945 (28444)

Both legs:

Down$552.8954.8¢-$552.89

Up$544.4945.2¢+$659.23

ply-pm0

Invested

$414.15

Value

$464.71

PnL

+$50.55

Record

49%

5201-5342 (10543)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$458.91

Value

$446.33

PnL

-$12.57

Record

56%

13759-10934 (24693)

Both legs:

Down$265.2456.8¢-$265.24

Up$193.6743.4¢+$252.67

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$231.4

Value

$219.19

PnL

-$12.22

Record

64%

58208-32895 (91103)

Both legs:

Down$142.238.1¢-$142.2

Up$89.240.7¢+$129.98

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$244.62

Value

$251.6

PnL

+$6.98

Record

57%

12473-9602 (22075)

Both legs:

Down$131.0749¢-$131.07

Up$113.5545.1¢+$138.05

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$229.16

Value

$178.22

PnL

-$50.94

Record

55%

7397-6067 (13464)

Both legs:

Down$142.5848.4¢-$142.58

Up$86.5848.6¢+$91.64

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.14

Value

$92.58

PnL

-$42.57

Record

62%

28482-17797 (46279)

Both legs:

Down$94.4451.1¢-$94.44

Up$40.744¢+$51.87

13897651CTR

Down

Invested

$179.31

Value

—

PnL

-$179.31

Record

59%

6727-4700 (11427)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$103.88

Value

$128.49

PnL

+$24.62

Record

54%

7981-6681 (14662)

Both legs:

Down$26.3418.8¢-$26.34

Up$77.5360.3¢+$50.96

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$167.13

Value

$235.99

PnL

+$68.86

Record

60%

12187-8053 (20240)

Both legs:

Up$154.5665.5¢+$81.43

Down$12.5720¢-$12.57

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$133.77

Value

$245.63

PnL

+$111.86

Record

57%

11978-8978 (20956)

Both legs:

Up$126.551.5¢+$119.12

Down$7.2620.6¢-$7.26

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$116.55

Value

$201

PnL

+$84.45

Record

57%

7798-5980 (13778)

Both legs:

Up$99.8249.7¢+$101.18

Down$16.7332.2¢-$16.73

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$36.6

Value

—

PnL

-$36.6

Record

58%

12626-9308 (21934)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$77.74

Value

—

PnL

-$77.74

Record

64%

40024-22885 (62909)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$55.02

Value

—

PnL

-$55.02

Record

55%

23844-19265 (43109)

trdyugiolkw<$100

Invested

$60.9

Value

$70

PnL

+$9.1

Record

57%

10301-7732 (18033)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.27

Value

$53.57

PnL

+$26.3

Record

64%

22926-12644 (35570)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$23.15

Value

$39.33

PnL

+$16.18

Record

52%

90141-84640 (174781)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$26.82

Value

$38.78

PnL

+$11.96

Record

61%

94725-59677 (154402)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$46.74

Value

$82.38

PnL

+$35.64

Record

58%

60468-44149 (104617)

YouSayUpISayDown<$100

Invested

$24.3

Value

$30

PnL

+$5.7

Record

53%

3699-3216 (6915)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$0.69

Value

$0.87

PnL

+$0.18

Record

55%

50404-41003 (91407)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.69

Value

—

PnL

-$7.69

Record

66%

112064-58449 (170513)

Nobey1CTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

40%

469-701 (1170)

arcsine-barristerCTR<$100

Down

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

3642-2826 (6468)

Smart Money Signal

8 of 15 top traders (53%)10 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdabfe728...8de345

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793341500

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$106.34

ply-pm0

Up — $464.71

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$50.94

0x568b079891fcc8bef2e557fa2a8a7ecca1700b3b

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Down — $0

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$68.86

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