Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Down. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
26
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$71.96
Smart Money Signal
18 of 26 top traders (69%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 68¢ | $836.49 | $863.31 | +$26.82 | 54% 15499-12945 (28444) |
GO GoodFallen | Downavg 60.8¢ | $365.32 | $361 | -$4.32 | 56% 13759-10934 (24693) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.6¢ | $328.6 | $340 | +$11.4 | 93% 23285-1761 (25046) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 65.8¢ | $262.13 | $297.52 | +$35.4 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
 FairValueMachine | Downavg 66.7¢ | $226.48 | $274.99 | +$48.52 | 57% 12473-9602 (22075) |
13 13897651ARB<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $104.38 | $134.2 | +$29.82 | 59% 6727-4700 (11427) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.5¢ | $71.81 | $134.2 | +$62.39 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $32.57 | — | -$32.57 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $112.85 | $90.52 | -$22.33 | 54% 7981-6681 (14662) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $83.3 | $85.83 | +$2.53 | 65% 4028-2179 (6207) |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Upavg 31.8¢ | $141.29 | — | -$141.29 | 57% 7798-5980 (13778) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $57.35 | $51.61 | -$5.74 | 55% 7397-6067 (13464) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $54.79 | $54.72 | +$5.57 | 64% 22926-12644 (35570) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 71.6¢ | $44.48 | $41 | -$3.48 | 49% 5201-5342 (10543) |
EZ EZTRADENL2<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $46.28 | $34.28 | -$12 | 57% 11978-8978 (20956) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $19.64 | $29.16 | +$9.52 | 55% 23844-19265 (43109) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $19.5 | $25 | +$5.5 | 55% 8611-7050 (15661) |
0X 0x9f672c31cb41362e30558eee9202e<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $17.64 | $18 | +$0.36 | 54% 1602-1370 (2972) |
0X 0xef9a0ef24gdf3546gheux246dd5gh<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $17.64 | $18 | +$0.36 | 58% 1326-971 (2297) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.8¢ | $21.76 | — | -$20.16 | 60% 12187-8053 (20240) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $20.73 | $7 | -$0.29 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
MO mo-moneyCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $2.93 | — | -$2.93 | 55% 50404-41003 (91407) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $4.91 | $9.09 | +$4.18 | 66% 112064-58449 (170513) |
RL RLWGCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 50% 7811-7833 (15644) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $2.85 | $3.85 | +$1 | 58% 60468-44149 (104617) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 11.4¢ | $5.64 | — | -$5.64 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $0.03 | — | -$0.03 | 56% 57965-44765 (102730) |
Invested
$836.49
Value
$863.31
PnL
+$26.82
Record
54%
15499-12945 (28444)
Invested
$365.32
Value
$361
PnL
-$4.32
Record
56%
13759-10934 (24693)
Invested
$328.6
Value
$340
PnL
+$11.4
Record
93%
23285-1761 (25046)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$262.13
Value
$297.52
PnL
+$35.4
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
FairValueMachineInvested
$226.48
Value
$274.99
PnL
+$48.52
Record
57%
12473-9602 (22075)
Invested
$104.38
Value
$134.2
PnL
+$29.82
Record
59%
6727-4700 (11427)
Both legs:
Invested
$112.85
Value
$90.52
PnL
-$22.33
Record
54%
7981-6681 (14662)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$83.3
Value
$85.83
PnL
+$2.53
Record
65%
4028-2179 (6207)
Invested
$141.29
Value
—
PnL
-$141.29
Record
57%
7798-5980 (13778)
Invested
$57.35
Value
$51.61
PnL
-$5.74
Record
55%
7397-6067 (13464)
Invested
$54.79
Value
$54.72
PnL
+$5.57
Record
64%
22926-12644 (35570)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$41
PnL
-$3.48
Record
49%
5201-5342 (10543)
Invested
$46.28
Value
$34.28
PnL
-$12
Record
57%
11978-8978 (20956)
Invested
$19.64
Value
$29.16
PnL
+$9.52
Record
55%
23844-19265 (43109)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$19.5
Value
$25
PnL
+$5.5
Record
55%
8611-7050 (15661)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.36
Record
54%
1602-1370 (2972)
Invested
$17.64
Value
$18
PnL
+$0.36
Record
58%
1326-971 (2297)
Invested
$21.76
Value
—
PnL
-$20.16
Record
60%
12187-8053 (20240)
Invested
$20.73
Value
$7
PnL
-$0.29
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
Invested
$2.93
Value
—
PnL
-$2.93
Record
55%
50404-41003 (91407)
Invested
$4.91
Value
$9.09
PnL
+$4.18
Record
66%
112064-58449 (170513)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
50%
7811-7833 (15644)
Invested
$2.85
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$1
Record
58%
60468-44149 (104617)
Invested
$5.64
Value
—
PnL
-$5.64
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
Invested
$0.03
Value
—
PnL
-$0.03
Record
56%
57965-44765 (102730)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $863.31
GoodFallen
Down — $361
hoodquant
Down — $340
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $297.52
FairValueMachine
Down — $274.99
13897651
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Down — $90.52
Atomforge
Down — $85.83
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $51.61