Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET

Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 68%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$165.51

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up15 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares1,829

Combined PnL+$389.14

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares477

Combined PnL-$223.63

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 56.1¢	$1.8K	$1.7K	-$77.96	54% 15499-12945 (28444)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.1¢	$956.24	$1.7K	+$746.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$824.89	—	-$824.89
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 60.6¢	$788.26	$798.15	+$9.89	56% 13759-10934 (24693)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.6¢	$483.97	$798.15	+$314.17
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$304.29	—	-$304.29
NIULAI4	Upavg 75.5¢	$443.52	$587.19	+$143.68	77% 9380-2814 (12194)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 50.3¢	$366.13	$391.2	+$25.07	49% 5201-5342 (10543)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.3¢	$196.76	$391.2	+$194.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.5¢	$169.37	—	-$169.37
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 67.1¢	$455.23	$399.88	-$55.35	57% 12473-9602 (22075)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.1¢	$268.52	$399.88	+$131.36
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$186.72	—	-$186.72
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 68.7¢	$345.7	$404.46	+$58.77	60% 12187-8053 (20240)
MO mo-moneyARB<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$275.96	$268.92	-$7.04	55% 50404-41003 (91407)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.2¢	$183.47	$268.92	+$85.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.1¢	$92.49	—	-$92.49
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 62.4¢	$256.11	$271.84	+$15.73	57% 11978-8978 (20956)
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 64.9¢	$150.31	$180.45	+$30.14	54% 7981-6681 (14662)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.9¢	$117.14	$180.45	+$63.31
└ Down leg	Downavg 16.5¢	$33.17	—	-$33.17
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 59.5¢	$136	$200	+$64	55% 23844-19265 (43109)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 50.1¢	$167.56	$260.51	+$92.96	59% 6727-4700 (11427)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.1¢	$130.39	$260.51	+$130.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.3¢	$37.17	—	-$37.17
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$196.06	$117.8	-$78.25	64% 58208-32895 (91103)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.1¢	$53.14	$117.8	+$64.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.5¢	$142.92	—	-$142.92
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 59¢	$105.58	$100.22	-$2.57	55% 7397-6067 (13464)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59¢	$59.13	$100.22	+$41.09
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.7¢	$45.02	—	-$43.65
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 39.6¢	$59.22	$78.14	+$18.92	66% 112064-58449 (170513)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$77.22	$78	+$0.78	93% 23285-1761 (25046)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$45.2	$63	+$17.8	57% 7798-5980 (13778)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 42.3¢	$25.4	$60.1	+$34.7	65% 124927-66830 (191757)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$19.8	$26	+$6.2	52% 90141-84640 (174781)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 28.8¢	$32.57	—	-$32.57	55% 8611-7050 (15661)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 64.1¢	$104.82	—	-$104.82	58% 60468-44149 (104617)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$17.1	—	-$17.1	50% 7811-7833 (15644)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 71¢	$35.53	—	-$35.53	56% 57965-44765 (102730)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 30¢	$30	—	-$30	51% 17065-16608 (33673)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 91.1¢	$16.22	$17.81	+$1.59	63% 51801-30522 (82323)
PB PBot-6<$100	Upavg 48¢	$10.35	$21.56	+$11.21	58% 50965-37099 (88064)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,781.13

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$77.96

Record

54%

15499-12945 (28444)

Both legs:

Up$956.2456.1¢+$746.93

Down$824.8939.7¢-$824.89

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$788.26

Value

$798.15

PnL

+$9.89

Record

56%

13759-10934 (24693)

Both legs:

Up$483.9760.6¢+$314.17

Down$304.2939.7¢-$304.29

NIULAI4

Invested

$443.52

Value

$587.19

PnL

+$143.68

Record

77%

9380-2814 (12194)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$366.13

Value

$391.2

PnL

+$25.07

Record

49%

5201-5342 (10543)

Both legs:

Up$196.7650.3¢+$194.44

Down$169.3725.5¢-$169.37

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$455.23

Value

$399.88

PnL

-$55.35

Record

57%

12473-9602 (22075)

Both legs:

Up$268.5267.1¢+$131.36

Down$186.7252.3¢-$186.72

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$345.7

Value

$404.46

PnL

+$58.77

Record

60%

12187-8053 (20240)

mo-moneyARB<$100

Invested

$275.96

Value

$268.92

PnL

-$7.04

Record

55%

50404-41003 (91407)

Both legs:

Up$183.4768.2¢+$85.45

Down$92.4922.1¢-$92.49

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$256.11

Value

$271.84

PnL

+$15.73

Record

57%

11978-8978 (20956)

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$150.31

Value

$180.45

PnL

+$30.14

Record

54%

7981-6681 (14662)

Both legs:

Up$117.1464.9¢+$63.31

Down$33.1716.5¢-$33.17

sir-upalot

Invested

$136

Value

$200

PnL

+$64

Record

55%

23844-19265 (43109)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$167.56

Value

$260.51

PnL

+$92.96

Record

59%

6727-4700 (11427)

Both legs:

Up$130.3950.1¢+$130.12

Down$37.1752.3¢-$37.17

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$196.06

Value

$117.8

PnL

-$78.25

Record

64%

58208-32895 (91103)

Both legs:

Up$53.1445.1¢+$64.67

Down$142.9252.5¢-$142.92

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$105.58

Value

$100.22

PnL

-$2.57

Record

55%

7397-6067 (13464)

Both legs:

Up$59.1359¢+$41.09

Down$45.0228.7¢-$43.65

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$59.22

Value

$78.14

PnL

+$18.92

Record

66%

112064-58449 (170513)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$77.22

Value

$78

PnL

+$0.78

Record

93%

23285-1761 (25046)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$45.2

Value

$63

PnL

+$17.8

Record

57%

7798-5980 (13778)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$25.4

Value

$60.1

PnL

+$34.7

Record

65%

124927-66830 (191757)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$19.8

Value

$26

PnL

+$6.2

Record

52%

90141-84640 (174781)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.57

Value

—

PnL

-$32.57

Record

55%

8611-7050 (15661)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$104.82

Value

—

PnL

-$104.82

Record

58%

60468-44149 (104617)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.1

Value

—

PnL

-$17.1

Record

50%

7811-7833 (15644)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$35.53

Value

—

PnL

-$35.53

Record

56%

57965-44765 (102730)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30

Value

—

PnL

-$30

Record

51%

17065-16608 (33673)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$16.22

Value

$17.81

PnL

+$1.59

Record

63%

51801-30522 (82323)

PBot-6<$100

Invested

$10.35

Value

$21.56

PnL

+$11.21

Record

58%

50965-37099 (88064)

Smart Money Signal

15 of 21 top traders (71%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x39b0e93e...fa9247

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793340600

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $587.19

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $404.46

+$58.77

mo-money

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$7.04

EZTRADENL2

Up — $271.84

+$15.73

sfkjbsr457

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$30.14

sir-upalot

Up — $200

+$64

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