Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 55%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$249.86

Smart Money Signal

12 of 24 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,143

Combined PnL+$255.05

Down12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,945

Combined PnL-$504.92

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.6¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$15.41	93% 23285-1761 (25046)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 49¢	$652.92	$703.91	+$50.99	54% 15499-12945 (28444)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 74.4¢	$356.76	$358.72	+$1.96	54% 7981-6681 (14662)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 71.7¢	$258.59	$251.86	-$6.72	49% 5201-5342 (10543)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 55.2¢	$192.37	$174.99	-$17.38	56% 13759-10934 (24693)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 64.1¢	$160.15	$118.01	-$42.15	60% 12187-8053 (20240)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.1¢	$116.14	—	-$116.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.3¢	$44.01	$118.01	+$73.99
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$156.78	$90.49	-$66.29	59% 6727-4700 (11427)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.2¢	$110.79	—	-$110.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.8¢	$45.99	$90.49	+$44.5
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 76.4¢	$107.14	$130.15	+$24.76	55% 7397-6067 (13464)
FairValueMachineCTR	Downavg 66¢	$117.89	—	-$117.89	57% 12473-9602 (22075)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 68¢	$102.05	—	-$102.05	64% 40024-22885 (62909)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 48.3¢	$70.51	$146.1	+$75.59	57% 7798-5980 (13778)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.5¢	$25.05	—	-$25.05	59% 62172-43352 (105524)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 64¢	$67.23	$68.82	+$1.59	66% 112064-58449 (170513)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$35.47	—	-$35.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$31.76	$68.82	+$37.06
machinelearnedCTR	Downavg 58¢	$116.99	—	-$116.99	55% 8611-7050 (15661)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 46.4¢	$63.2	$107.68	+$44.49	57% 11978-8978 (20956)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 33.7¢	$86.58	—	-$86.58	64% 58208-32895 (91103)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Downavg 1.2¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2942-1052 (3994)
MO mo-money<$100	Upavg 33¢	$16.13	$41.36	+$25.23	55% 50404-41003 (91407)
TR trdyugiolkwCTR<$100	Downavg 66.5¢	$23.5	—	-$23.5	57% 10301-7732 (18033)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 34¢	$8.77	$25.77	+$17	56% 57965-44765 (102730)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 78¢	$45.71	$58.64	+$12.93	55% 23844-19265 (43109)
AtomforgeCTR<$100	Downavg 69¢	$8.52	—	-$8.52	65% 4028-2179 (6207)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$4.95	—	-$4.95	46% 7787-9202 (16989)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 28¢	$4.2	$15	+$10.8	65% 124927-66830 (191757)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 72¢	$4.38	—	-$4.38	52% 90141-84640 (174781)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,113.59

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$15.41

Record

93%

23285-1761 (25046)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$652.92

Value

$703.91

PnL

+$50.99

Record

54%

15499-12945 (28444)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$356.76

Value

$358.72

PnL

+$1.96

Record

54%

7981-6681 (14662)

ply-pm0

Invested

$258.59

Value

$251.86

PnL

-$6.72

Record

49%

5201-5342 (10543)

GoodFallen

Invested

$192.37

Value

$174.99

PnL

-$17.38

Record

56%

13759-10934 (24693)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$160.15

Value

$118.01

PnL

-$42.15

Record

60%

12187-8053 (20240)

Both legs:

Down$116.1464.1¢-$116.14

Up$44.0137.3¢+$73.99

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$156.78

Value

$90.49

PnL

-$66.29

Record

59%

6727-4700 (11427)

Both legs:

Down$110.7953.2¢-$110.79

Up$45.9950.8¢+$44.5

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$107.14

Value

$130.15

PnL

+$24.76

Record

55%

7397-6067 (13464)

FairValueMachineCTR

Down

Invested

$117.89

Value

—

PnL

-$117.89

Record

57%

12473-9602 (22075)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$102.05

Value

—

PnL

-$102.05

Record

64%

40024-22885 (62909)

wzbbb

Invested

$70.51

Value

$146.1

PnL

+$75.59

Record

57%

7798-5980 (13778)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$25.05

Value

—

PnL

-$25.05

Record

59%

62172-43352 (105524)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$67.23

Value

$68.82

PnL

+$1.59

Record

66%

112064-58449 (170513)

Both legs:

Invested

$116.99

Value

—

PnL

-$116.99

Record

55%

8611-7050 (15661)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$63.2

Value

$107.68

PnL

+$44.49

Record

57%

11978-8978 (20956)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$86.58

Value

—

PnL

-$86.58

Record

64%

58208-32895 (91103)

Vega7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2942-1052 (3994)

mo-money<$100

Invested

$16.13

Value

$41.36

PnL

+$25.23

Record

55%

50404-41003 (91407)

trdyugiolkwCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$23.5

Value

—

PnL

-$23.5

Record

57%

10301-7732 (18033)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$8.77

Value

$25.77

PnL

+$17

Record

56%

57965-44765 (102730)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$45.71

Value

$58.64

PnL

+$12.93

Record

55%

23844-19265 (43109)

AtomforgeCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.52

Value

—

PnL

-$8.52

Record

65%

4028-2179 (6207)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.95

Value

—

PnL

-$4.95

Record

46%

7787-9202 (16989)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.2

Value

$15

PnL

+$10.8

Record

65%

124927-66830 (191757)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.38

Value

—

PnL

-$4.38

Record

52%

90141-84640 (174781)

Smart Money Signal

12 of 24 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe218c060...ff8489

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793340300

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $1.1K

+$15.41

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $703.91

+$50.99

sfkjbsr457

Up — $358.72

+$1.96

ply-pm0

Up — $251.86

-$6.72

GoodFallen

Up — $174.99

-$17.38

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $130.15

FairValueMachine

Down — $0

ohioism

Down — $0