Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET
Resolved Up. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
23
Up 76%
1 arb excluded
$3.1K
$193.83
Smart Money Signal
16 of 23 top traders (70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 56.5¢ | $699.21 | $721.76 | +$22.56 | 54% 15499-12945 (28444) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 67.4¢ | $307.16 | $328.5 | +$21.34 | 56% 13759-10934 (24693) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $264.6 | $270 | +$5.4 | 93% 23285-1761 (25046) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 20.4¢ | $170.7 | $176.02 | +$39.23 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.2¢ | $72.46 | $176.02 | +$123.36 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 20.4¢ | $84.13 | — | -$84.13 | |
AN antsaslyku | Upavg 55.2¢ | $122.9 | $195.9 | +$73 | 66% 112064-58449 (170513) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 93.5¢ | $178.12 | $183 | +$4.88 | 60% 12187-8053 (20240) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 68.6¢ | $192.72 | $175.17 | -$17.55 | 49% 5201-5342 (10543) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 68¢ | $146.43 | $190.68 | +$44.25 | 57% 11978-8978 (20956) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 74.9¢ | $176.16 | $146.51 | -$29.65 | 54% 7981-6681 (14662) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 88.2¢ | $138.33 | $130.85 | -$6.63 | 55% 7397-6067 (13464) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 75¢ | $137.49 | $130.1 | -$7.39 | 57% 12473-9602 (22075) |
 machinelearned | Upavg 77.1¢ | $108.3 | $114.99 | +$6.69 | 55% 8611-7050 (15661) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $68.49 | $80.66 | +$12.17 | 57% 7798-5980 (13778) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 37.3¢ | $29.18 | $78.28 | +$49.1 | 55% 23844-19265 (43109) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $49.9 | $87.5 | +$37.6 | 59% 6727-4700 (11427) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $46.16 | $60 | +$13.84 | 65% 124927-66830 (191757) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3¢ | $4.6 | — | -$4.6 | 59% 62172-43352 (105524) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 24.2¢ | $13.36 | — | -$13.36 | 52% 90141-84640 (174781) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.3¢ | $21.74 | — | -$8.81 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $6.17 | — | -$6.17 | 55% 44783-37243 (82026) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $3.75 | — | -$3.75 | 46% 7787-9202 (16989) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $1.6 | $2.5 | +$0.9 | 51% 17065-16608 (33673) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 469-701 (1170) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3642-2826 (6468) |
Invested
$699.21
Value
$721.76
PnL
+$22.56
Record
54%
15499-12945 (28444)
Invested
$307.16
Value
$328.5
PnL
+$21.34
Record
56%
13759-10934 (24693)
Invested
$264.6
Value
$270
PnL
+$5.4
Record
93%
23285-1761 (25046)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$170.7
Value
$176.02
PnL
+$39.23
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Both legs:
Invested
$122.9
Value
$195.9
PnL
+$73
Record
66%
112064-58449 (170513)
Invested
$178.12
Value
$183
PnL
+$4.88
Record
60%
12187-8053 (20240)
Invested
$192.72
Value
$175.17
PnL
-$17.55
Record
49%
5201-5342 (10543)
Invested
$146.43
Value
$190.68
PnL
+$44.25
Record
57%
11978-8978 (20956)
Invested
$176.16
Value
$146.51
PnL
-$29.65
Record
54%
7981-6681 (14662)
Invested
$138.33
Value
$130.85
PnL
-$6.63
Record
55%
7397-6067 (13464)
FairValueMachineInvested
$137.49
Value
$130.1
PnL
-$7.39
Record
57%
12473-9602 (22075)
machinelearnedInvested
$108.3
Value
$114.99
PnL
+$6.69
Record
55%
8611-7050 (15661)
Invested
$68.49
Value
$80.66
PnL
+$12.17
Record
57%
7798-5980 (13778)
Invested
$29.18
Value
$78.28
PnL
+$49.1
Record
55%
23844-19265 (43109)
Invested
$49.9
Value
$87.5
PnL
+$37.6
Record
59%
6727-4700 (11427)
Invested
$46.16
Value
$60
PnL
+$13.84
Record
65%
124927-66830 (191757)
Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
59%
62172-43352 (105524)
Invested
$13.36
Value
—
PnL
-$13.36
Record
52%
90141-84640 (174781)
Invested
$21.74
Value
—
PnL
-$8.81
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.17
Value
—
PnL
-$6.17
Record
55%
44783-37243 (82026)
Invested
$3.75
Value
—
PnL
-$3.75
Record
46%
7787-9202 (16989)
Invested
$1.6
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.9
Record
51%
17065-16608 (33673)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
469-701 (1170)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3642-2826 (6468)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $721.76
GoodFallen
Up — $328.5
hoodquant
Up — $270
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
antsaslyku
Up — $195.9
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $183
ply-pm0
Up — $175.17
EZTRADENL2
Up — $190.68
sfkjbsr457
Up — $146.51
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $130.85