Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
19
Down 74%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$-6.6K
Smart Money Signal
14 of 19 top traders (74%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | $-6.6K | 56% 3642-2826 (6468) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73.3¢ | $338.73 | $366 | +$27.27 | 54% 15499-12945 (28444) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 91¢ | $143.6 | $155 | +$11.4 | 57% 7798-5980 (13778) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 88¢ | $127.12 | $112.18 | -$14.94 | 55% 7397-6067 (13464) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Downavg 84.6¢ | $87.07 | $87.8 | +$0.72 | 49% 5201-5342 (10543) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Upavg 31.3¢ | $95.02 | $56.42 | -$38.6 | 56% 13759-10934 (24693) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.7¢ | $40.44 | $56.42 | +$15.98 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 31.3¢ | $54.58 | — | -$54.58 | |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 78.3¢ | $66.96 | $65.98 | -$0.97 | 60% 12187-8053 (20240) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $59.07 | $34.44 | -$24.63 | 64% 58208-32895 (91103) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 70.7¢ | $37.36 | $47.87 | +$14.26 | 65% 124927-66830 (191757) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $24.67 | $36.67 | +$12 | 66% 112064-58449 (170513) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $39.6 | $30 | -$9.6 | 57% 12473-9602 (22075) |
13 13897651<$100 | Downavg 53.7¢ | $27.81 | $43.22 | +$15.41 | 59% 6727-4700 (11427) |
SF sfkjbsr457CTR<$100 | Upavg 27.3¢ | $36.89 | — | -$36.89 | 54% 7981-6681 (14662) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $6.5 | $10 | +$3.5 | 40% 469-701 (1170) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Downavg 72¢ | $6.97 | $9.68 | +$2.71 | 51% 17065-16608 (33673) |
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100 | Upavg 26.7¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 57% 11978-8978 (20956) |
 machinelearnedCTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 55% 8611-7050 (15661) |
PA Parad0X<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $2.8 | $5.19 | +$2.39 | 56% 2187-1706 (3893) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $3.05 | $5 | +$1.95 | 64% 40024-22885 (62909) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 25¢ | $2.16 | — | -$2.16 | 61% 94725-59677 (154402) |
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
$-6.6K
Record
56%
3642-2826 (6468)
Invested
$338.73
Value
$366
PnL
+$27.27
Record
54%
15499-12945 (28444)
Invested
$143.6
Value
$155
PnL
+$11.4
Record
57%
7798-5980 (13778)
Invested
$127.12
Value
$112.18
PnL
-$14.94
Record
55%
7397-6067 (13464)
Invested
$87.07
Value
$87.8
PnL
+$0.72
Record
49%
5201-5342 (10543)
Invested
$95.02
Value
$56.42
PnL
-$38.6
Record
56%
13759-10934 (24693)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.96
Value
$65.98
PnL
-$0.97
Record
60%
12187-8053 (20240)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$59.07
Value
$34.44
PnL
-$24.63
Record
64%
58208-32895 (91103)
Invested
$37.36
Value
$47.87
PnL
+$14.26
Record
65%
124927-66830 (191757)
Invested
$24.67
Value
$36.67
PnL
+$12
Record
66%
112064-58449 (170513)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$39.6
Value
$30
PnL
-$9.6
Record
57%
12473-9602 (22075)
Invested
$27.81
Value
$43.22
PnL
+$15.41
Record
59%
6727-4700 (11427)
Invested
$36.89
Value
—
PnL
-$36.89
Record
54%
7981-6681 (14662)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$3.5
Record
40%
469-701 (1170)
Invested
$6.97
Value
$9.68
PnL
+$2.71
Record
51%
17065-16608 (33673)
Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
57%
11978-8978 (20956)
machinelearnedCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
55%
8611-7050 (15661)
Invested
$2.8
Value
$5.19
PnL
+$2.39
Record
56%
2187-1706 (3893)
ohioism<$100Invested
$3.05
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.95
Record
64%
40024-22885 (62909)
Invested
$2.16
Value
—
PnL
-$2.16
Record
61%
94725-59677 (154402)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
arcsine-barrister
CTRUp — $0
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $366
wzbbb
Down — $155
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Down — $112.18
ply-pm0
Down — $87.8
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Down — $65.98
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $34.44
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $47.87
antsaslyku
Down — $36.67