Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 81%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.5K

Combined PnL

$196.71

Smart Money Signal

18 of 23 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,362

Combined PnL+$389.85

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares314

Combined PnL-$193.14

Up — 78%Down — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 62.4¢	$863.26	$1.0K	+$141.83	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
NIULAI4	Upavg 86.9¢	$886.49	$1.0K	+$133.64	77% 9373-2811 (12184)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 72.9¢	$674.56	$563.6	-$110.96	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.9¢	$410.64	$563.6	+$152.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.9¢	$263.92	—	-$263.92
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 61¢	$531.11	$532.66	+$1.55	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$437.82	$488.26	+$62.08	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$244.22	$488.26	+$249.68
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.4¢	$187.59	—	-$187.59
FairValueMachine	Upavg 72.5¢	$465.77	$435.66	-$30.11	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 75.8¢	$371.47	$362.57	-$8.89	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 79.5¢	$185.5	$223.16	+$37.66	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 75.4¢	$146.17	$175.89	+$29.71	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 76.2¢	$152.93	$152.98	+$0.06	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$92.47	$85.98	-$6.49	61% 94696-59644 (154340)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 52.3¢	$78.06	—	-$78.06	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 67¢	$63.34	$75.07	+$11.73	58% 60444-44134 (104578)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 55¢	$74.2	$135	+$60.8	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 69.1¢	$76.99	$79	+$2.01	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 69.1¢	$54.62	$79	+$24.38
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.6¢	$22.37	—	-$22.37
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 68.2¢	$43.8	$50.77	+$6.97	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$85.92	—	-$85.92	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 49¢	$20.15	$25	+$4.85	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 82.1¢	$27.29	$33.23	+$5.94	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
GA gansinimen<$100	Upavg 82¢	$26.48	$21.33	-$5.15	51% 17056-16600 (33656)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 46.7¢	$14.41	—	-$14.41	58% 50956-37091 (88047)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 17.5¢	$14.75	—	-$14.75	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 87¢	$15.42	$17.72	+$2.3	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
NO Nobey1<$100	Upavg 66¢	$6.6	$10	+$3.4	40% 466-695 (1161)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 50¢	$0.05	$0.1	+$0.05	58% 37772-27004 (64776)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$863.26

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$141.83

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

NIULAI4

Invested

$886.49

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$133.64

Record

77%

9373-2811 (12184)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$674.56

Value

$563.6

PnL

-$110.96

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

Both legs:

Up$410.6472.9¢+$152.96

Down$263.9232.9¢-$263.92

GoodFallen

Invested

$531.11

Value

$532.66

PnL

+$1.55

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$437.82

Value

$488.26

PnL

+$62.08

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Up$244.2250¢+$249.68

Down$187.5928.4¢-$187.59

FairValueMachine

Invested

$465.77

Value

$435.66

PnL

-$30.11

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

ply-pm0

Invested

$371.47

Value

$362.57

PnL

-$8.89

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$185.5

Value

$223.16

PnL

+$37.66

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

sir-upalot

Invested

$146.17

Value

$175.89

PnL

+$29.71

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$152.93

Value

$152.98

PnL

+$0.06

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$92.47

Value

$85.98

PnL

-$6.49

Record

61%

94696-59644 (154340)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$78.06

Value

—

PnL

-$78.06

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$63.34

Value

$75.07

PnL

+$11.73

Record

58%

60444-44134 (104578)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$74.2

Value

$135

PnL

+$60.8

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$76.99

Value

$79

PnL

+$2.01

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Up$54.6269.1¢+$24.38

Down$22.3754.6¢-$22.37

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$43.8

Value

$50.77

PnL

+$6.97

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$85.92

Value

—

PnL

-$85.92

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$20.15

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.85

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.29

Value

$33.23

PnL

+$5.94

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

gansinimen<$100

Invested

$26.48

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$5.15

Record

51%

17056-16600 (33656)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.41

Value

—

PnL

-$14.41

Record

58%

50956-37091 (88047)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$14.75

Value

—

PnL

-$14.75

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$15.42

Value

$17.72

PnL

+$2.3

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

Nobey1<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.4

Record

40%

466-695 (1161)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.1

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 23 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbfc20388...4cb3e6

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793335200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.0K

+$141.83

NIULAI4

Up — $1.0K

+$133.64

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$110.96

GoodFallen

Up — $532.66

+$1.55

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$62.08

FairValueMachine

Up — $435.66

-$30.11

ply-pm0

Up — $362.57

-$8.89

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Up — $223.16

+$37.66

sir-upalot

Up — $175.89

+$29.71

sfkjbsr457

Up — $152.98

+$0.06

Trade on Polymarket