Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 84%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.4K

Combined PnL

$414.57

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down21 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares5,022

Combined PnL+$463.57

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,634

Combined PnL-$49

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Downavg 99¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$14.16	56% 29346-23030 (52376)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 59.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$71.66	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.3¢	$746.24	$1.3K	+$512.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.6¢	$584.28	—	-$584.28
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 54.7¢	$719.84	$715.33	-$4.52	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$391.48	$715.33	+$323.85
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.7¢	$328.37	—	-$328.37
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 52.2¢	$563.52	$625.38	+$61.86	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$634.59	$641	+$6.41	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
PL ply-pm0	Downavg 61.7¢	$330.95	$316.34	-$14.61	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 48.3¢	$262.09	$307.94	+$45.85	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 58.8¢	$270.44	$213.58	-$56.86	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.3¢	$128.7	$213.58	+$84.88
└ Up leg	Upavg 58.8¢	$141.74	—	-$141.74
machinelearned	Downavg 40¢	$110.8	$275	+$164.2	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 32.3¢	$94.57	$177.98	+$83.41	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.3¢	$57.55	$177.98	+$120.43
└ Up leg	Upavg 21.5¢	$37.02	—	-$37.02
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 85.2¢	$200.65	$172.08	-$28.57	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 76.4¢	$167.44	$219.12	+$51.68	58% 60444-44134 (104578)
13 13897651	Downavg 55.4¢	$153.7	$228.53	+$74.83	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 70.9¢	$161.34	$134.12	-$27.22	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
ohioism	Downavg 85.1¢	$123.44	$145.05	+$21.61	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 78.1¢	$92.05	$117.83	+$25.78	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 63.6¢	$92.52	$98.25	+$5.73	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 52.3¢	$122.82	$60.92	-$61.9	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 75¢	$45.67	$60.92	+$15.25
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.3¢	$77.15	—	-$77.15
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 52.4¢	$68.16	$86	+$17.84	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Downavg 88¢	$73.74	$44	-$29.74	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 51¢	$48.45	$95	+$46.55	12% 18281-132979 (151260)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2942-1050 (3992)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 88.7¢	$34.01	$38.36	+$4.35	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 55¢	$23.19	$33.31	+$10.12	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 28.9¢	$19.37	—	-$9.82	61% 94696-59644 (154340)

THG.

Down

Invested

$1,401.45

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$14.16

Record

56%

29346-23030 (52376)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,330.53

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$71.66

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Down$746.2459.3¢+$512.62

Up$584.2844.6¢-$584.28

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$719.84

Value

$715.33

PnL

-$4.52

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Both legs:

Down$391.4854.7¢+$323.85

Up$328.3750.7¢-$328.37

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$563.52

Value

$625.38

PnL

+$61.86

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$634.59

Value

$641

PnL

+$6.41

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

ply-pm0

Down

Invested

$330.95

Value

$316.34

PnL

-$14.61

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$262.09

Value

$307.94

PnL

+$45.85

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$270.44

Value

$213.58

PnL

-$56.86

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

Both legs:

Down$128.760.3¢+$84.88

Up$141.7458.8¢-$141.74

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$110.8

Value

$275

PnL

+$164.2

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$94.57

Value

$177.98

PnL

+$83.41

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Both legs:

Down$57.5532.3¢+$120.43

Up$37.0221.5¢-$37.02

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$200.65

Value

$172.08

PnL

-$28.57

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$167.44

Value

$219.12

PnL

+$51.68

Record

58%

60444-44134 (104578)

13897651

Down

Invested

$153.7

Value

$228.53

PnL

+$74.83

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$161.34

Value

$134.12

PnL

-$27.22

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$123.44

Value

$145.05

PnL

+$21.61

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$92.05

Value

$117.83

PnL

+$25.78

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$92.52

Value

$98.25

PnL

+$5.73

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$122.82

Value

$60.92

PnL

-$61.9

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Both legs:

Invested

$68.16

Value

$86

PnL

+$17.84

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Down

Invested

$73.74

Value

$44

PnL

-$29.74

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$48.45

Value

$95

PnL

+$46.55

Record

12%

18281-132979 (151260)

Vega7CTR<$100

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2942-1050 (3992)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$34.01

Value

$38.36

PnL

+$4.35

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$23.19

Value

$33.31

PnL

+$10.12

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$19.37

Value

—

PnL

-$9.82

Record

61%

94696-59644 (154340)

Smart Money Signal

Down

21 of 27 top traders (78%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xad5bd4fe...40cbbb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793334900

Traders in this Market

THG.

Down — $1.4K

+$14.16

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Down — $625.38

+$61.86

hoodquant

Down — $641

+$6.41

ply-pm0

Down — $316.34

-$14.61

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $307.94

+$45.85

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$56.86

machinelearned

Down — $275

+$164.2

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$83.41

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