Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

16 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

-$189.68

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares580

Combined PnL-$211.71

Down5 traders

Total Value$148.35

Total Shares148

Combined PnL+$22.04

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 68.4¢	$2.8K	$3.2K	+$358.53	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.4¢	$2.2K	$3.2K	+$995.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.9¢	$637.45	—	-$637.45
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 50.6¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$164.46	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$489.35	$1.3K	+$855.14
└ Up leg	Upavg 50.6¢	$690.68	—	-$690.68
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$835.99	$748.03	-$87.97	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
└ Down leg	Downavg 43.5¢	$325.35	$748.03	+$422.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.5¢	$510.65	—	-$510.65
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 67.1¢	$790.63	$747.79	-$42.83	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.1¢	$501.77	$747.79	+$246.03
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$288.86	—	-$288.86
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 42.4¢	$451.29	$315.2	-$136.09	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.4¢	$307.32	—	-$307.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.7¢	$143.97	$315.2	+$171.23
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 40.2¢	$279.77	$359.69	+$109.31	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.2¢	$144.69	$359.69	+$232.33
└ Up leg	Upavg 33.7¢	$123.01	—	-$123.01
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 56.2¢	$287.53	$237.31	-$50.22	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.7¢	$139.25	$237.31	+$98.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$148.28	—	-$148.28
NIULAI4ARB<$100	Downavg 59.2¢	$97.1	$121.63	+$24.54	77% 9373-2811 (12184)
└ Up leg	Upavg 7¢	$25.04	—	-$25.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.2¢	$72.06	$121.63	+$49.57
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 54.8¢	$230.19	$168.95	-$61.24	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 66.5¢	$112.3	$168.95	+$56.65
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.8¢	$117.89	—	-$117.89
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 60.6¢	$166.97	$245.29	+$78.31	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.6¢	$148.6	$245.29	+$96.69
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.4¢	$18.38	—	-$18.38
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 37.2¢	$135.8	$170	+$34.2	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$62.88	$170	+$107.12
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$72.92	—	-$72.92
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 87.5¢	$220.2	$200	-$20.2	51% 17056-16600 (33656)
└ Down leg	Downavg 87.5¢	$175	$200	+$25
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.7¢	$45.2	—	-$45.2
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 78.9¢	$192.27	$199.77	+$7.5	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.9¢	$157.69	$199.77	+$42.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 49¢	$34.58	—	-$34.58
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 51¢	$137.23	$109.45	-$27.78	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51¢	$76.5	—	-$76.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.5¢	$60.73	$109.45	+$48.72
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 39.3¢	$99.3	—	-$99.3	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$98.85	—	-$98.85	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 63¢	$58.2	$108	+$54.96	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
└ Down leg	Downavg 17¢	$18.36	$108	+$92.76
└ Up leg	Upavg 63¢	$37.8	—	-$37.8
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 85.9¢	$109.41	$82.13	-$27.28	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 85.9¢	$70.51	$82.13	+$11.62
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.4¢	$38.9	—	-$38.9
MayorMamdani<$100	Downavg 69.7¢	$85.22	$79	-$6.22	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Downavg 87¢	$21.53	$22.53	+$1	63% 51772-30494 (82266)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 45.6¢	$50.6	—	-$15.63	61% 94696-59644 (154340)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 62¢	$13.94	—	-$13.94	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 47.7¢	$19.63	—	-$19.63	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 47.6¢	$25.01	—	-$19.4	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 51.4¢	$13.76	$26.76	+$13	58% 50956-37091 (88047)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$2,793.96

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$358.53

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

Both legs:

Down$2,156.5168.4¢+$995.98

Up$637.4553.9¢-$637.45

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,180.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$164.46

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Down$489.3536.4¢+$855.14

Up$690.6850.6¢-$690.68

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$835.99

Value

$748.03

PnL

-$87.97

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Both legs:

Down$325.3543.5¢+$422.68

Up$510.6551.5¢-$510.65

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$790.63

Value

$747.79

PnL

-$42.83

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Down$501.7767.1¢+$246.03

Up$288.8637.2¢-$288.86

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$451.29

Value

$315.2

PnL

-$136.09

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

Both legs:

Up$307.3242.4¢-$307.32

Down$143.9745.7¢+$171.23

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$279.77

Value

$359.69

PnL

+$109.31

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Down$144.6940.2¢+$232.33

Up$123.0133.7¢-$123.01

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$287.53

Value

$237.31

PnL

-$50.22

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Both legs:

Down$139.2558.7¢+$98.06

Up$148.2856.2¢-$148.28

NIULAI4ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$97.1

Value

$121.63

PnL

+$24.54

Record

77%

9373-2811 (12184)

Both legs:

Up$25.047¢-$25.04

Down$72.0659.2¢+$49.57

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$230.19

Value

$168.95

PnL

-$61.24

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Both legs:

Down$112.366.5¢+$56.65

Up$117.8954.8¢-$117.89

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$166.97

Value

$245.29

PnL

+$78.31

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Both legs:

Down$148.660.6¢+$96.69

Up$18.3817.4¢-$18.38

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$135.8

Value

$170

PnL

+$34.2

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Down$62.8837¢+$107.12

Up$72.9237.2¢-$72.92

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$220.2

Value

$200

PnL

-$20.2

Record

51%

17056-16600 (33656)

Both legs:

Down$17587.5¢+$25

Up$45.229.7¢-$45.2

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$192.27

Value

$199.77

PnL

+$7.5

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

Both legs:

Down$157.6978.9¢+$42.08

Up$34.5849¢-$34.58

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$137.23

Value

$109.45

PnL

-$27.78

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Both legs:

Up$76.551¢-$76.5

Down$60.7355.5¢+$48.72

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$99.3

Value

—

PnL

-$99.3

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$98.85

Value

—

PnL

-$98.85

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$58.2

Value

$108

PnL

+$54.96

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

Both legs:

Invested

$109.41

Value

$82.13

PnL

-$27.28

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

Both legs:

Down$70.5185.9¢+$11.62

Up$38.956.4¢-$38.9

MayorMamdani<$100

Down

Invested

$85.22

Value

$79

PnL

-$6.22

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Down

Invested

$21.53

Value

$22.53

PnL

+$1

Record

63%

51772-30494 (82266)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$50.6

Value

—

PnL

-$15.63

Record

61%

94696-59644 (154340)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$13.94

Value

—

PnL

-$13.94

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$19.63

Value

—

PnL

-$19.63

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

—

PnL

-$19.4

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$13.76

Value

$26.76

PnL

+$13

Record

58%

50956-37091 (88047)

Smart Money Signal

10 of 15 top traders (67%)16 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x5c6bfd5e...08c1fb

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793334600

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$358.53

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$78.31

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