Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 75%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

$398.42

Smart Money Signal

18 of 24 top traders (75%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares6,188

Combined PnL+$602.81

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares716

Combined PnL-$204.39

Up — 75%Down — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$18.34	56% 29346-23030 (52376)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$13.33	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.3¢	$810.83	$1.0K	+$214.39	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 67.2¢	$531.39	$529.42	-$1.97	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 59.7¢	$408.58	$502.08	+$93.5	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 63.5¢	$432.02	$402.46	-$29.55	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.5¢	$255.53	$402.46	+$146.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.6¢	$176.49	—	-$176.49
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 66¢	$278.08	$289.57	+$11.49	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66¢	$191.11	$289.57	+$98.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.6¢	$86.97	—	-$86.97
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 56¢	$281.63	$364.63	+$83	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56¢	$204.06	$364.63	+$160.57
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$77.57	—	-$77.57
FairValueMachine	Upavg 54.5¢	$180.23	$256.23	+$76	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 45.5¢	$114.16	—	-$114.16	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$128.03	$145.04	+$17.01	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$90.17	$145.04	+$54.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.4¢	$37.86	—	-$37.86
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 62.3¢	$116.59	$127	+$10.41	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.3¢	$79.06	$127	+$47.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 26.2¢	$37.53	—	-$37.53
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 61.5¢	$109.46	$178.01	+$68.55	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$110.88	$112	+$1.12	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 25.2¢	$42.25	—	-$42.25	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
AN antsaslyku	Upavg 50.5¢	$64.7	$125.56	+$60.86	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Downavg 22.5¢	$81.93	$29.19	-$52.74	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.5¢	$59.91	—	-$59.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 75.4¢	$22.02	$29.19	+$7.17
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 94.3¢	$57.75	$60	+$2.25	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 73.1¢	$58.52	$47	-$11.52	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.1¢	$34.34	$47	+$12.66
└ Down leg	Downavg 25.4¢	$24.18	—	-$24.18
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 75¢	$105	$140	+$35	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Downavg 41.4¢	$24.1	—	-$24.1	50% 7801-7821 (15622)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74¢	$26.1	$15.41	+$0.6	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 94¢	$18.69	$19.88	+$1.19	58% 60444-44134 (104578)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 78.4¢	$13.32	$9.92	-$3.4	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 51.3¢	$12.83	$25	+$12.17	34% 18742-35744 (54486)

THG.

Invested

$1,816.1

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$18.34

Record

56%

29346-23030 (52376)

hoodquant

Invested

$1,319.67

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$13.33

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$810.83

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$214.39

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$531.39

Value

$529.42

PnL

-$1.97

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

GoodFallen

Invested

$408.58

Value

$502.08

PnL

+$93.5

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$432.02

Value

$402.46

PnL

-$29.55

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

Both legs:

Up$255.5363.5¢+$146.93

Down$176.4929.6¢-$176.49

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$278.08

Value

$289.57

PnL

+$11.49

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Up$191.1166¢+$98.46

Down$86.9730.6¢-$86.97

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$281.63

Value

$364.63

PnL

+$83

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

Both legs:

Up$204.0656¢+$160.57

Down$77.5750¢-$77.57

FairValueMachine

Invested

$180.23

Value

$256.23

PnL

+$76

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$114.16

Value

—

PnL

-$114.16

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$128.03

Value

$145.04

PnL

+$17.01

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Both legs:

Up$90.1762.2¢+$54.87

Down$37.8630.4¢-$37.86

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$116.59

Value

$127

PnL

+$10.41

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Both legs:

Up$79.0662.3¢+$47.93

Down$37.5326.2¢-$37.53

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$109.46

Value

$178.01

PnL

+$68.55

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

MayorMamdani

Invested

$110.88

Value

$112

PnL

+$1.12

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$42.25

Value

—

PnL

-$42.25

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

antsaslyku

Invested

$64.7

Value

$125.56

PnL

+$60.86

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Down

Invested

$81.93

Value

$29.19

PnL

-$52.74

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Both legs:

Down$59.9122.5¢-$59.91

Up$22.0275.4¢+$7.17

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$57.75

Value

$60

PnL

+$2.25

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$58.52

Value

$47

PnL

-$11.52

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Up$34.3473.1¢+$12.66

Down$24.1825.4¢-$24.18

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$105

Value

$140

PnL

+$35

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

RLWGCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$24.1

Value

—

PnL

-$24.1

Record

50%

7801-7821 (15622)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$26.1

Value

$15.41

PnL

+$0.6

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$18.69

Value

$19.88

PnL

+$1.19

Record

58%

60444-44134 (104578)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$13.32

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$3.4

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$12.83

Value

$25

PnL

+$12.17

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 24 top traders (75%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xfea2b49e...304ba2

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793334300

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $1.8K

+$18.34

hoodquant

Up — $1.3K

+$13.33

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.0K

+$214.39

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $529.42

-$1.97

GoodFallen

Up — $502.08

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Up — $256.23

+$76

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$114.16

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