Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Resolved Down. 70% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 73%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

$442.85

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down16 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares3,585

Combined PnL+$554.43

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares339

Combined PnL-$111.58

Down — 70%Up — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 71.3¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$43.61	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.3¢	$747.84	$1.0K	+$300.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.7¢	$257.05	—	-$257.05
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 81.4¢	$789.98	$800.78	+$10.8	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 69.2¢	$548.41	$582.89	+$34.49	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 70.2¢	$432.4	$479	+$46.6	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.2¢	$336.22	$479	+$142.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.6¢	$96.18	—	-$96.18
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 83.2¢	$401.14	$391.86	-$9.28	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.2¢	$326.11	$391.86	+$65.75
└ Up leg	Upavg 13.6¢	$75.03	—	-$75.03
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 15.6¢	$285.96	$150	-$135.96	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 15.6¢	$162.71	—	-$162.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.2¢	$123.25	$150	+$26.75
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 79.9¢	$352.45	$440.99	+$88.54	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
FairValueMachine	Downavg 69.4¢	$258.82	$300	+$41.18	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Downavg 90.8¢	$321.76	$324.02	+$2.25	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 88.2¢	$281.67	$245	+$208.33	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
MayorMamdani	Downavg 99¢	$308.88	$312	+$3.12	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 62.7¢	$224.61	$218.99	-$5.61	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62.7¢	$137.21	$218.99	+$81.79
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.7¢	$87.4	—	-$87.4
13 13897651	Downavg 60.9¢	$159.21	$261.27	+$102.06	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 83.1¢	$125.7	$94.38	-$31.33	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 83.1¢	$78.4	$94.38	+$15.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 24.1¢	$47.31	—	-$47.31
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 76.7¢	$96.76	$121	+$24.24	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 80.6¢	$80.5	$61.44	-$19.06	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.6¢	$49.53	$61.44	+$11.92
└ Up leg	Upavg 27.6¢	$30.98	—	-$30.98
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$49.28	—	-$49.28	—
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 84.6¢	$51.74	$53.74	+$2	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72.2¢	$36.1	$50	+$13.9	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 65.5¢	$21.27	$32.48	+$11.22	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$16	—	-$16	50% 7801-7821 (15622)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$15.81	—	-$15.81	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 78¢	$17.3	$22.18	+$4.88	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 56¢	$11.76	$21	+$9.24	12% 18281-132979 (151260)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 24.2¢	$16	—	-$16	58% 12615-9290 (21905)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,004.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$43.61

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Down$747.8471.3¢+$300.66

Up$257.0523.7¢-$257.05

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$789.98

Value

$800.78

PnL

+$10.8

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$548.41

Value

$582.89

PnL

+$34.49

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$432.4

Value

$479

PnL

+$46.6

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Down$336.2270.2¢+$142.78

Up$96.1815.6¢-$96.18

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$401.14

Value

$391.86

PnL

-$9.28

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Down$326.1183.2¢+$65.75

Up$75.0313.6¢-$75.03

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$285.96

Value

$150

PnL

-$135.96

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Both legs:

Up$162.7115.6¢-$162.71

Down$123.2582.2¢+$26.75

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$352.45

Value

$440.99

PnL

+$88.54

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

FairValueMachine

Down

Invested

$258.82

Value

$300

PnL

+$41.18

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down

Invested

$321.76

Value

$324.02

PnL

+$2.25

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$281.67

Value

$245

PnL

+$208.33

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$308.88

Value

$312

PnL

+$3.12

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$224.61

Value

$218.99

PnL

-$5.61

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Both legs:

Down$137.2162.7¢+$81.79

Up$87.443.7¢-$87.4

13897651

Down

Invested

$159.21

Value

$261.27

PnL

+$102.06

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$125.7

Value

$94.38

PnL

-$31.33

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Both legs:

Down$78.483.1¢+$15.98

Up$47.3124.1¢-$47.31

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$96.76

Value

$121

PnL

+$24.24

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$80.5

Value

$61.44

PnL

-$19.06

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

Both legs:

Down$49.5380.6¢+$11.92

Up$30.9827.6¢-$30.98

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Invested

$49.28

Value

—

PnL

-$49.28

Record

—

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$51.74

Value

$53.74

PnL

+$2

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$36.1

Value

$50

PnL

+$13.9

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$21.27

Value

$32.48

PnL

+$11.22

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

RLWGCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

—

PnL

-$16

Record

50%

7801-7821 (15622)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$15.81

Value

—

PnL

-$15.81

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$17.3

Value

$22.18

PnL

+$4.88

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$11.76

Value

$21

PnL

+$9.24

Record

12%

18281-132979 (151260)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

—

PnL

-$16

Record

58%

12615-9290 (21905)

Smart Money Signal

Down

16 of 23 top traders (70%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xdb91881b...1408a4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793334000

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$43.61

Bonereaper

Down — $800.78

+$10.8

GoodFallen

Down — $582.89

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $440.99

+$88.54

FairValueMachine

Down — $300

+$41.18

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Down — $324.02

+$2.25

sfkjbsr457

Down — $245

+$208.33

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