Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
24
Up 71%
3 arb excluded
$4.5K
$270.88
Smart Money Signal
17 of 24 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 93¢ | $1.8K | $1.9K | +$16.85 | 66% 99109-51360 (150469) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 66.5¢ | $426.12 | $549.07 | +$122.95 | 54% 15489-12934 (28423) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 66.6¢ | $265.21 | $330.41 | +$65.2 | 56% 13744-10928 (24672) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 75.1¢ | $230.42 | $246.79 | +$16.37 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 89.5¢ | $157.84 | $100 | -$57.84 | 55% 8602-7038 (15640) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 3.5¢ | $68.34 | — | -$68.34 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 89.5¢ | $89.5 | $100 | +$10.5 | |
13 13897651 | Upavg 71.8¢ | $189.19 | $256.85 | +$67.66 | 59% 6714-4692 (11406) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 87.9¢ | $182 | $186.44 | +$4.44 | 54% 7970-6670 (14640) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding | Upavg 72.6¢ | $134.5 | $181.91 | +$47.41 | 60% 12176-8043 (20219) |
 FairValueMachine | Upavg 65.3¢ | $137.24 | $174.64 | +$37.4 | 57% 12461-9593 (22054) |
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100 | Upavg 75.3¢ | $131.76 | $140 | +$8.24 | 57% 11965-8970 (20935) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 75.3¢ | $105.4 | $140 | +$34.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 51.3¢ | $26.36 | — | -$26.36 | |
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100 | Downavg 59.8¢ | $118 | $60 | -$58 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 59.8¢ | $71.8 | — | -$71.8 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77¢ | $46.2 | $60 | +$13.8 | |
GA gansinimen | Upavg 76¢ | $76 | $100 | +$24 | 51% 17056-16600 (33656) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 60.4¢ | $34.06 | $56.32 | +$22.26 | 66% 112049-58418 (170467) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 41¢ | $36.9 | $90 | +$53.1 | 56% 57941-44749 (102690) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $54.9 | $44.32 | -$1.85 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 55.1¢ | $28.71 | $38.16 | +$9.45 | 49% 5188-5334 (10522) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100 | Downavg 37¢ | $86.45 | — | -$86.45 | 55% 7387-6056 (13443) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 91.2¢ | $37.37 | $40.99 | +$3.62 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $38.01 | — | -$38.01 | 58% 50956-37091 (88047) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $29.55 | — | -$29.55 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.7¢ | $29.03 | — | -$29.03 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.4¢ | $29.93 | — | -$29.93 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 91¢ | $13.66 | $15.01 | +$1.35 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 23¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
NO Nobey1<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $7.1 | $10 | +$2.9 | 40% 466-695 (1161) |
Invested
$1,849.47
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$16.85
Record
66%
99109-51360 (150469)
Invested
$426.12
Value
$549.07
PnL
+$122.95
Record
54%
15489-12934 (28423)
Invested
$265.21
Value
$330.41
PnL
+$65.2
Record
56%
13744-10928 (24672)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$230.42
Value
$246.79
PnL
+$16.37
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$157.84
Value
$100
PnL
-$57.84
Record
55%
8602-7038 (15640)
Both legs:
Invested
$189.19
Value
$256.85
PnL
+$67.66
Record
59%
6714-4692 (11406)
Invested
$182
Value
$186.44
PnL
+$4.44
Record
54%
7970-6670 (14640)
Invested
$134.5
Value
$181.91
PnL
+$47.41
Record
60%
12176-8043 (20219)
FairValueMachineInvested
$137.24
Value
$174.64
PnL
+$37.4
Record
57%
12461-9593 (22054)
Invested
$131.76
Value
$140
PnL
+$8.24
Record
57%
11965-8970 (20935)
Both legs:
Invested
$118
Value
$60
PnL
-$58
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Both legs:
Invested
$76
Value
$100
PnL
+$24
Record
51%
17056-16600 (33656)
Invested
$34.06
Value
$56.32
PnL
+$22.26
Record
66%
112049-58418 (170467)
Invested
$36.9
Value
$90
PnL
+$53.1
Record
56%
57941-44749 (102690)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$44.32
PnL
-$1.85
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
$28.71
Value
$38.16
PnL
+$9.45
Record
49%
5188-5334 (10522)
Invested
$86.45
Value
—
PnL
-$86.45
Record
55%
7387-6056 (13443)
Invested
$37.37
Value
$40.99
PnL
+$3.62
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
Invested
$38.01
Value
—
PnL
-$38.01
Record
58%
50956-37091 (88047)
Invested
$29.55
Value
—
PnL
-$29.55
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$29.03
Value
—
PnL
-$29.03
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$29.93
Value
—
PnL
-$29.93
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$15.01
PnL
+$1.35
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$7.1
Value
$10
PnL
+$2.9
Record
40%
466-695 (1161)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $549.07
GoodFallen
Up — $330.41
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $246.79
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Up — $256.85
sfkjbsr457
Up — $186.44
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $181.91
FairValueMachine
Up — $174.64
EZTRADENL2
ARBArbitrage — excluded