Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 80%
1 arb excluded
$3.6K
$59.87
Smart Money Signal
16 of 22 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 95.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$1.55 | 66% 99109-51360 (150469) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 71.1¢ | $429.93 | $482.24 | +$52.31 | 54% 15489-12934 (28423) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 90.4¢ | $278.81 | $171.22 | -$107.6 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 85.7¢ | $142.87 | $155.54 | +$12.67 | 54% 7970-6670 (14640) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71.1¢ | $137.73 | $168.69 | +$30.96 | 56% 13744-10928 (24672) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $107.03 | $89.98 | -$17.05 | 57% 12461-9593 (22054) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $59.39 | $89.98 | +$30.6 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 33.6¢ | $47.65 | — | -$47.65 | |
WZ wzbbbCTR | Downavg 46.3¢ | $154.88 | — | -$154.88 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49.3¢ | $83.81 | $169.9 | +$86.09 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 64.3¢ | $89.81 | $139.74 | +$49.93 | 57% 11965-8970 (20935) |
 machinelearned<$100 | Upavg 86¢ | $58.17 | $66.12 | +$7.95 | 55% 8602-7038 (15640) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 90.8¢ | $54.66 | $60.2 | +$5.53 | 55% 7387-6056 (13443) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 74¢ | $37.34 | $50.13 | +$12.79 | 55% 23835-19256 (43091) |
13 13897651<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $36.89 | $72.53 | +$35.64 | 59% 6714-4692 (11406) |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 84.3¢ | $35.97 | $42.67 | +$6.7 | 49% 5188-5334 (10522) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 80.4¢ | $28.98 | $32.68 | +$3.7 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $24.03 | $49.04 | +$25.01 | 58% 50956-37091 (88047) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $5.59 | $5.09 | -$0.5 | 60% 12176-8043 (20219) |
 Atomforge<$100 | Upavg 89¢ | $6.72 | $7.55 | +$0.83 | 65% 4020-2176 (6196) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 4¢ | $2.4 | — | -$2.4 | 65% 124925-66828 (191753) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.3¢ | $4 | — | -$4 | 52% 90119-84595 (174714) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $0.52 | — | -$0.52 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 4.9¢ | $2.35 | — | -$1.88 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 466-695 (1161) |
Invested
$1,879.51
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$1.55
Record
66%
99109-51360 (150469)
Invested
$429.93
Value
$482.24
PnL
+$52.31
Record
54%
15489-12934 (28423)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$278.81
Value
$171.22
PnL
-$107.6
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Invested
$142.87
Value
$155.54
PnL
+$12.67
Record
54%
7970-6670 (14640)
Invested
$137.73
Value
$168.69
PnL
+$30.96
Record
56%
13744-10928 (24672)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$107.03
Value
$89.98
PnL
-$17.05
Record
57%
12461-9593 (22054)
Both legs:
Invested
$154.88
Value
—
PnL
-$154.88
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
Invested
$83.81
Value
$169.9
PnL
+$86.09
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$89.81
Value
$139.74
PnL
+$49.93
Record
57%
11965-8970 (20935)
machinelearned<$100Invested
$58.17
Value
$66.12
PnL
+$7.95
Record
55%
8602-7038 (15640)
Invested
$54.66
Value
$60.2
PnL
+$5.53
Record
55%
7387-6056 (13443)
Invested
$37.34
Value
$50.13
PnL
+$12.79
Record
55%
23835-19256 (43091)
Invested
$36.89
Value
$72.53
PnL
+$35.64
Record
59%
6714-4692 (11406)
Invested
$35.97
Value
$42.67
PnL
+$6.7
Record
49%
5188-5334 (10522)
Invested
$28.98
Value
$32.68
PnL
+$3.7
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
Invested
$24.03
Value
$49.04
PnL
+$25.01
Record
58%
50956-37091 (88047)
Invested
$5.59
Value
$5.09
PnL
-$0.5
Record
60%
12176-8043 (20219)
Atomforge<$100Invested
$6.72
Value
$7.55
PnL
+$0.83
Record
65%
4020-2176 (6196)
Invested
$2.4
Value
—
PnL
-$2.4
Record
65%
124925-66828 (191753)
Invested
$4
Value
—
PnL
-$4
Record
52%
90119-84595 (174714)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$0.52
Value
—
PnL
-$0.52
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$1.88
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
466-695 (1161)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.9K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $482.24
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $171.22
sfkjbsr457
Up — $155.54
GoodFallen
Up — $168.69
FairValueMachine
ARBArbitrage — excluded
wzbbb
CTRDown — $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $169.9
EZTRADENL2
Up — $139.74
machinelearned
Up — $66.12