Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.2K

Combined PnL

-$611.03

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,707

Combined PnL-$851.15

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,267

Combined PnL+$240.12

Down — 50%Up — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$726.13	$862.53	+$136.41	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.6¢	$445.04	$862.53	+$417.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.5¢	$281.09	—	-$281.09
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$626.23	$536.94	-$89.3	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.4¢	$217.14	$536.94	+$319.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$409.09	—	-$409.09
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 51.6¢	$572.02	—	-$572.02	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$608.85	$645.47	+$36.62	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 73.9¢	$477.19	$645.47	+$168.28
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.9¢	$131.66	—	-$131.66
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 54.5¢	$485.67	$652.64	+$166.97	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
└ Up leg	Upavg 54.5¢	$355.77	$652.64	+$296.87
└ Down leg	Downavg 46.9¢	$129.9	—	-$129.9
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 64.5¢	$396.66	$393.55	-$3.11	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.5¢	$253.81	$393.55	+$139.75
└ Down leg	Downavg 37¢	$142.86	—	-$142.86
NIULAI4	Upavg 84.6¢	$518.32	$612.65	+$94.33	77% 9373-2811 (12184)
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Upavg 72.7¢	$227.8	$197.8	-$30	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
└ Up leg	Upavg 72.7¢	$143.73	$197.8	+$54.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$84.07	—	-$84.07
ohioismARB<$100	Upavg 63.1¢	$130.95	$157.56	+$26.61	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.1¢	$99.41	$157.56	+$58.15
└ Down leg	Downavg 17.3¢	$31.54	—	-$31.54
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$135.22	$84.96	-$50.25	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.8¢	$94.16	—	-$94.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.3¢	$41.06	$84.96	+$43.9
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 66.3¢	$130	$143.56	+$13.56	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.3¢	$95.15	$143.56	+$48.41
└ Down leg	Downavg 56.8¢	$34.85	—	-$34.85
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 66.3¢	$113.84	$133.95	+$20.11	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
WZ wzbbb	Upavg 48.2¢	$74.79	$128.32	+$53.53	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Upavg 94.4¢	$151.77	$160.08	+$8.31	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 60¢	$90	—	-$90	34% 18742-35744 (54486)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 71.3¢	$106.62	$102.57	-$4.05	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.3¢	$73.12	$102.57	+$29.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 67¢	$33.5	—	-$33.5
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100	Upavg 56.7¢	$93.53	$96.86	+$3.34	58% 60444-44134 (104578)
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.7¢	$54.92	$96.86	+$41.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 69¢	$38.61	—	-$38.61
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Downavg 18.6¢	$38.24	—	-$38.24	51% 17056-16600 (33656)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$41.63	$49.11	+$7.48	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
└ Up leg	Upavg 40.2¢	$19.74	$49.11	+$29.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 39.7¢	$21.89	—	-$21.89
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$51.52	—	-$51.52	58% 50956-37091 (88047)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$68.31	$69	+$0.69	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 74.1¢	$48.32	$63.06	+$14.74	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 39.7¢	$26.98	—	-$26.98	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$37.87	—	-$37.87	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 62.9¢	$27.69	$44.02	+$16.33	64% 22856-12613 (35469)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$726.13

Value

$862.53

PnL

+$136.41

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Both legs:

Up$445.0451.6¢+$417.49

Down$281.0942.5¢-$281.09

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$626.23

Value

$536.94

PnL

-$89.3

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Up$217.1440.4¢+$319.79

Down$409.0953.1¢-$409.09

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$572.02

Value

—

PnL

-$572.02

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$608.85

Value

$645.47

PnL

+$36.62

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

Both legs:

Up$477.1973.9¢+$168.28

Down$131.6642.9¢-$131.66

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$485.67

Value

$652.64

PnL

+$166.97

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

Both legs:

Up$355.7754.5¢+$296.87

Down$129.946.9¢-$129.9

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$396.66

Value

$393.55

PnL

-$3.11

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Up$253.8164.5¢+$139.75

Down$142.8637¢-$142.86

NIULAI4

Invested

$518.32

Value

$612.65

PnL

+$94.33

Record

77%

9373-2811 (12184)

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Invested

$227.8

Value

$197.8

PnL

-$30

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Both legs:

Up$143.7372.7¢+$54.07

Down$84.0758.8¢-$84.07

ohioismARB<$100

Invested

$130.95

Value

$157.56

PnL

+$26.61

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

Both legs:

Up$99.4163.1¢+$58.15

Down$31.5417.3¢-$31.54

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$135.22

Value

$84.96

PnL

-$50.25

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

Both legs:

Down$94.1654.8¢-$94.16

Up$41.0648.3¢+$43.9

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$130

Value

$143.56

PnL

+$13.56

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

Both legs:

Up$95.1566.3¢+$48.41

Down$34.8556.8¢-$34.85

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$113.84

Value

$133.95

PnL

+$20.11

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

wzbbb

Invested

$74.79

Value

$128.32

PnL

+$53.53

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Invested

$151.77

Value

$160.08

PnL

+$8.31

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$90

Value

—

PnL

-$90

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$106.62

Value

$102.57

PnL

-$4.05

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

Both legs:

Up$73.1271.3¢+$29.45

Down$33.567¢-$33.5

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100

Invested

$93.53

Value

$96.86

PnL

+$3.34

Record

58%

60444-44134 (104578)

Both legs:

Invested

$38.24

Value

—

PnL

-$38.24

Record

51%

17056-16600 (33656)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Down

Invested

$41.63

Value

$49.11

PnL

+$7.48

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

Both legs:

Up$19.7440.2¢+$29.37

Down$21.8939.7¢-$21.89

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$51.52

Value

—

PnL

-$51.52

Record

58%

50956-37091 (88047)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$68.31

Value

$69

PnL

+$0.69

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$48.32

Value

$63.06

PnL

+$14.74

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.98

Value

—

PnL

-$26.98

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$37.87

Value

—

PnL

-$37.87

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$27.69

Value

$44.02

PnL

+$16.33

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 22 top traders (50%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xae136d12...35eb4e

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793331600

Traders in this Market

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

NIULAI4

Up — $612.65

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded

ohioism

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded