Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 93% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 93%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$155.97

Smart Money Signal

26 of 28 top traders (93%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up26 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares6,802

Combined PnL+$525.66

Down2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares3,313

Combined PnL-$681.63

Up — 93%Down — 7%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 93.3¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$94.54	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$924.66	$934	+$9.34	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 31.2¢	$653.8	—	-$653.8	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 86.9¢	$421.73	$402.99	-$18.74	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 61.3¢	$205.98	$227.81	+$21.84	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
GA gansinimen	Upavg 64¢	$141.61	$200	+$58.39	51% 17056-16600 (33656)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 87.5¢	$195.38	$190.73	-$4.65	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$118.3	$140	+$21.7	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.9¢	$113.3	$140	+$26.7
└ Down leg	Downavg 1¢	$5	—	-$5
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$139.46	$157.33	+$17.87	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$97.88	$157.33	+$59.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 28.9¢	$41.58	—	-$41.58
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 72.8¢	$161.99	$188.58	+$26.59	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 67.8¢	$115.15	$156.28	+$41.13	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
13 13897651	Upavg 50.6¢	$93.48	$184.79	+$91.31	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$62.9	$70	+$7.1	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$45.2	$70	+$24.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 19.7¢	$17.7	—	-$17.7
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 75.1¢	$93.73	$124.8	+$31.07	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 90.5¢	$64.26	$71	+$6.74	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 69.2¢	$72.04	$89.96	+$17.93	56% 57941-44749 (102690)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 80.1¢	$66.3	$52	-$14.3	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.1¢	$41.66	$52	+$10.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 38.5¢	$24.64	—	-$24.64
ohioism	Upavg 68.5¢	$72.17	$105.39	+$33.22	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 85.3¢	$52.01	$56.32	+$4.31	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 82.4¢	$62.63	$76	+$13.37	12% 18281-132979 (151260)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100	Upavg 60¢	$25.01	$32.25	+$7.24	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 77.3¢	$45.38	$58.71	+$13.32	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 76.7¢	$46.51	$60.66	+$14.15	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 80¢	$40	$50	+$10	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 53.6¢	$29.07	$54.24	+$25.17	34% 18742-35744 (54486)

Bonereaper

Invested

$3,344.65

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$94.54

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

hoodquant

Invested

$924.66

Value

$934

PnL

+$9.34

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$653.8

Value

—

PnL

-$653.8

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$421.73

Value

$402.99

PnL

-$18.74

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$205.98

Value

$227.81

PnL

+$21.84

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

gansinimen

Invested

$141.61

Value

$200

PnL

+$58.39

Record

51%

17056-16600 (33656)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$195.38

Value

$190.73

PnL

-$4.65

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$118.3

Value

$140

PnL

+$21.7

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Both legs:

Up$113.380.9¢+$26.7

Down$51¢-$5

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$139.46

Value

$157.33

PnL

+$17.87

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Up$97.8862.2¢+$59.45

Down$41.5828.9¢-$41.58

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$161.99

Value

$188.58

PnL

+$26.59

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$115.15

Value

$156.28

PnL

+$41.13

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

13897651

Invested

$93.48

Value

$184.79

PnL

+$91.31

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

GoodFallenARB<$100

Invested

$62.9

Value

$70

PnL

+$7.1

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Both legs:

Up$45.264.6¢+$24.8

Down$17.719.7¢-$17.7

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$93.73

Value

$124.8

PnL

+$31.07

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$64.26

Value

$71

PnL

+$6.74

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$72.04

Value

$89.96

PnL

+$17.93

Record

56%

57941-44749 (102690)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$66.3

Value

$52

PnL

-$14.3

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Up$41.6680.1¢+$10.34

Down$24.6438.5¢-$24.64

ohioism

Invested

$72.17

Value

$105.39

PnL

+$33.22

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$52.01

Value

$56.32

PnL

+$4.31

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$62.63

Value

$76

PnL

+$13.37

Record

12%

18281-132979 (151260)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100

Invested

$25.01

Value

$32.25

PnL

+$7.24

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$45.38

Value

$58.71

PnL

+$13.32

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$46.51

Value

$60.66

PnL

+$14.15

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$40

Value

$50

PnL

+$10

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$29.07

Value

$54.24

PnL

+$25.17

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

Smart Money Signal

26 of 28 top traders (93%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0d2aba43...23e8d3

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793331000

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $3.4K

+$94.54

hoodquant

Up — $934

+$9.34

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$653.8

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $402.99

-$18.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $227.81

+$21.84

gansinimen

Up — $200

+$58.39

sfkjbsr457

Up — $190.73

machinelearned

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $188.58

+$26.59

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