Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 76% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 79%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

-$615.05

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up19 traders

Total Value$6.1K

Total Shares6,076

Combined PnL+$168.19

Down6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,133

Combined PnL-$783.25

Up — 76%Down — 24%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 95.1¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$28.04	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Downavg 36.5¢	$740.83	—	-$740.83	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 97.9¢	$787.15	$804	+$16.85	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$739.55	$740.29	+$0.74	59% 62167-43333 (105500)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 64.6¢	$512.37	$557.51	+$45.13	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 64.6¢	$359.88	$557.51	+$197.63
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.5¢	$152.5	—	-$152.5
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 75.5¢	$296.44	$297.05	+$0.61	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 81.5¢	$278.34	$271.9	-$6.44	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 91.6¢	$278.03	$180	-$98.03	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 64.7¢	$143.31	$183.99	+$40.68	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 52.6¢	$129.77	$167.95	+$38.18	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.6¢	$88.26	$167.95	+$79.69
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.1¢	$41.51	—	-$41.51
machinelearnedARB<$100	Upavg 80.5¢	$100.48	$100	-$0.48	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.5¢	$80.5	$100	+$19.5
└ Down leg	Downavg 4.1¢	$19.98	—	-$19.98
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e	Upavg 83¢	$120.09	$122.35	+$2.27	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 60.5¢	$86.07	$75.33	-$10.75	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
└ Up leg	Upavg 60.5¢	$45.55	$75.33	+$29.77
└ Down leg	Downavg 45.2¢	$40.52	—	-$40.52
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 60.9¢	$76.56	$125.7	+$49.14	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Upavg 67¢	$68.1	$101.64	+$33.54	58% 60444-44134 (104578)
ohioism	Upavg 66.6¢	$67.1	$100.75	+$33.65	64% 40003-22867 (62870)
FairValueMachine<$100	Upavg 65.3¢	$48.46	$55.34	+$6.88	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 71¢	$42.6	$60	+$17.4	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 44.3¢	$34.27	—	-$34.27	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 70.4¢	$32.65	$46.36	+$13.71	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Upavg 86¢	$37.07	$43.1	+$6.03	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
WZ wzbbb<$100	Upavg 68¢	$15.64	$23	+$7.36	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
LI Little-big<$100	Upavg 51.5¢	$10.3	$20	+$9.7	34% 18742-35744 (54486)
wowitsamazing<$100	Upavg 68¢	$8	$11.76	+$3.76	58% 12615-9290 (21905)
PB PBot-6CTR<$100	Downavg 50¢	$4	—	-$4	58% 50956-37091 (88047)

Bonereaper

Invested

$2,855.96

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$28.04

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Down

Invested

$740.83

Value

—

PnL

-$740.83

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

hoodquant

Invested

$787.15

Value

$804

PnL

+$16.85

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

0x50f7

Invested

$739.55

Value

$740.29

PnL

+$0.74

Record

59%

62167-43333 (105500)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$512.37

Value

$557.51

PnL

+$45.13

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Up$359.8864.6¢+$197.63

Down$152.536.5¢-$152.5

ply-pm0

Invested

$296.44

Value

$297.05

PnL

+$0.61

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$278.34

Value

$271.9

PnL

-$6.44

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$278.03

Value

$180

PnL

-$98.03

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

GoodFallen

Invested

$143.31

Value

$183.99

PnL

+$40.68

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$129.77

Value

$167.95

PnL

+$38.18

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

Both legs:

Up$88.2652.6¢+$79.69

Down$41.5144.1¢-$41.51

machinelearnedARB<$100

Invested

$100.48

Value

$100

PnL

-$0.48

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Both legs:

Up$80.580.5¢+$19.5

Down$19.984.1¢-$19.98

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Invested

$120.09

Value

$122.35

PnL

+$2.27

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$86.07

Value

$75.33

PnL

-$10.75

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Both legs:

Up$45.5560.5¢+$29.77

Down$40.5245.2¢-$40.52

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$76.56

Value

$125.7

PnL

+$49.14

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Invested

$68.1

Value

$101.64

PnL

+$33.54

Record

58%

60444-44134 (104578)

ohioism

Invested

$67.1

Value

$100.75

PnL

+$33.65

Record

64%

40003-22867 (62870)

FairValueMachine<$100

Invested

$48.46

Value

$55.34

PnL

+$6.88

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$42.6

Value

$60

PnL

+$17.4

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.27

Value

—

PnL

-$34.27

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$32.65

Value

$46.36

PnL

+$13.71

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

sir-upalot<$100

Invested

$37.07

Value

$43.1

PnL

+$6.03

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

wzbbb<$100

Invested

$15.64

Value

$23

PnL

+$7.36

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Little-big<$100

Invested

$10.3

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.7

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

Value

$11.76

PnL

+$3.76

Record

58%

12615-9290 (21905)

PBot-6CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$4

Record

58%

50956-37091 (88047)

Smart Money Signal

19 of 25 top traders (76%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x35e6eb87...d8947c

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793330700

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $2.9K

+$28.04

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$740.83

hoodquant

Up — $804

+$16.85

0x50f7

Up — $740.29

+$0.74

dangerously-skip-permissions

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$45.13

ply-pm0

Up — $297.05

+$0.61

sfkjbsr457

Up — $271.9

-$6.44

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $180

-$98.03

GoodFallen

Up — $183.99

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded