Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET

Resolved Up. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

7 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.3K

Combined PnL

-$2.12

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,926

Combined PnL+$146.3

Down8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,710

Combined PnL-$148.42

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 86.6¢	$913.26	$923.55	+$10.3	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 67.3¢	$620.52	$602.96	-$17.55	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 67.3¢	$405.6	$602.96	+$197.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.4¢	$214.92	—	-$214.92
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 52.1¢	$288.87	$313.39	+$24.53	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.1¢	$163.37	$313.39	+$150.02
└ Down leg	Downavg 22.1¢	$125.49	—	-$125.49
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2.8¢	$34.76	—	-$34.76	59% 62167-43333 (105500)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 69.9¢	$235.98	$278.05	+$42.07	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507	Upavg 89¢	$167.81	$188.55	+$20.74	48% 23240-25517 (48757)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 68.8¢	$141.45	$140.74	-$0.71	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Up leg	Upavg 68.8¢	$96.78	$140.74	+$43.97
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$44.67	—	-$44.67
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 65¢	$134.42	$118.7	-$15.72	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
└ Up leg	Upavg 65¢	$77.15	$118.7	+$41.55
└ Down leg	Downavg 30¢	$57.27	—	-$57.27
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 57.8¢	$115.87	$122.25	+$6.38	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.8¢	$70.66	$122.25	+$51.59
└ Down leg	Downavg 41.4¢	$45.21	—	-$45.21
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 81.7¢	$119.9	$120.12	+$0.23	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 68.9¢	$87.5	$104.84	+$17.34	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$76.33	—	-$76.33	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 32.2¢	$102.09	$56.7	-$45.39	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.8¢	$45.81	$56.7	+$10.89
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.2¢	$56.28	—	-$56.28
DR drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100	Upavg 80.4¢	$53.43	$59.09	+$5.66	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
└ Up leg	Upavg 80.4¢	$47.48	$59.09	+$11.61
└ Down leg	Downavg 5¢	$5.95	—	-$5.95
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 77.1¢	$95.84	$124.27	+$28.43	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100	Upavg 83.1¢	$64.21	$77.23	+$13.02	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 66.6¢	$51.54	$49.55	-$1.99	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
machinelearnedCTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$9.17	—	-$9.17	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$22.48	$31	+$8.52	12% 18281-132979 (151260)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$10.77	—	-$10.77	34% 18742-35744 (54486)
MayorMamdani<$100	Upavg 73¢	$16.79	$23	+$6.21	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 16¢	$6.37	—	-$6.37	61% 94696-59644 (154340)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 76¢	$4.56	$6	+$1.44	64% 22856-12613 (35469)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Downavg 43.5¢	$8.5	—	-$8.5	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 14.2¢	$2.52	—	-$2.52	52% 90119-84595 (174714)

Bonereaper

Invested

$913.26

Value

$923.55

PnL

+$10.3

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$620.52

Value

$602.96

PnL

-$17.55

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Up$405.667.3¢+$197.37

Down$214.9236.4¢-$214.92

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$288.87

Value

$313.39

PnL

+$24.53

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Up$163.3752.1¢+$150.02

Down$125.4922.1¢-$125.49

0x50f7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$34.76

Value

—

PnL

-$34.76

Record

59%

62167-43333 (105500)

GoodFallen

Invested

$235.98

Value

$278.05

PnL

+$42.07

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Invested

$167.81

Value

$188.55

PnL

+$20.74

Record

48%

23240-25517 (48757)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$141.45

Value

$140.74

PnL

-$0.71

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Up$96.7868.8¢+$43.97

Down$44.6729¢-$44.67

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$134.42

Value

$118.7

PnL

-$15.72

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Both legs:

Up$77.1565¢+$41.55

Down$57.2730¢-$57.27

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$115.87

Value

$122.25

PnL

+$6.38

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

Both legs:

Up$70.6657.8¢+$51.59

Down$45.2141.4¢-$45.21

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$119.9

Value

$120.12

PnL

+$0.23

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$87.5

Value

$104.84

PnL

+$17.34

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$76.33

Value

—

PnL

-$76.33

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$102.09

Value

$56.7

PnL

-$45.39

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Up$45.8180.8¢+$10.89

Down$56.2832.2¢-$56.28

drfc4eybh7i8ARB<$100

Invested

$53.43

Value

$59.09

PnL

+$5.66

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

Both legs:

Up$47.4880.4¢+$11.61

Down$5.955¢-$5.95

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$95.84

Value

$124.27

PnL

+$28.43

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100

Invested

$64.21

Value

$77.23

PnL

+$13.02

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$51.54

Value

$49.55

PnL

-$1.99

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

machinelearnedCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.17

Value

—

PnL

-$9.17

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Invested

$22.48

Value

$31

PnL

+$8.52

Record

12%

18281-132979 (151260)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.77

Value

—

PnL

-$10.77

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

MayorMamdani<$100

Invested

$16.79

Value

$23

PnL

+$6.21

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.37

Value

—

PnL

-$6.37

Record

61%

94696-59644 (154340)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$4.56

Value

PnL

+$1.44

Record

64%

22856-12613 (35469)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.5

Value

—

PnL

-$8.5

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.52

Value

—

PnL

-$2.52

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 19 top traders (58%)7 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x7036578a...85b848

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793330400

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Up — $923.55

+$10.3

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Down — $0

GoodFallen

Up — $278.05

+$42.07

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Up — $188.55

+$20.74

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$0.71

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Up — $120.12

+$0.23

Trade on Polymarket