Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET

Resolved Down. 81% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 81%

12 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

$127.72

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 21 top traders (81%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down17 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares3,234

Combined PnL+$137.62

Up4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares74

Combined PnL-$9.9

Down — 81%Up — 19%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 97.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$34.78	93% 23242-1759 (25001)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$714.02	$699.36	-$14.66	66% 99109-51360 (150469)
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.4¢	$182.67	—	-$182.67
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$531.34	$699.36	+$168.01
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$845.83	$854.37	+$8.54	59% 62167-43333 (105500)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Downavg 70.4¢	$668.89	$685.97	+$17.07	54% 15489-12934 (28423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.1¢	$185.96	—	-$185.96
└ Down leg	Downavg 70.4¢	$482.93	$685.97	+$203.03
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 71.6¢	$416.7	$450.41	+$33.71	56% 13744-10928 (24672)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.6¢	$322.63	$450.41	+$127.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 22.4¢	$94.07	—	-$94.07
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 79.1¢	$292.07	$300.7	+$8.63	60% 12176-8043 (20219)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.1¢	$237.83	$300.7	+$62.87
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.9¢	$54.24	—	-$54.24
machinelearned	Downavg 76.5¢	$133.39	$100	-$33.39	55% 8602-7038 (15640)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 88.3¢	$249.54	$260.84	+$11.3	49% 5188-5334 (10522)
└ Down leg	Downavg 88.3¢	$230.37	$260.84	+$30.47
└ Up leg	Upavg 9.2¢	$19.16	—	-$19.16
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 86¢	$239.68	$231.08	-$8.6	54% 7970-6670 (14640)
└ Down leg	Downavg 86¢	$198.72	$231.08	+$32.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.7¢	$40.96	—	-$40.96
EZ EZTRADENL2ARB<$100	Downavg 80.8¢	$255.36	$265.38	+$10.02	57% 11965-8970 (20935)
└ Down leg	Downavg 80.8¢	$214.36	$265.38	+$51.02
└ Up leg	Upavg 29.3¢	$41	—	-$41
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 68.5¢	$159.87	$183.12	+$23.25	64% 58184-32863 (91047)
└ Up leg	Upavg 16.8¢	$34.45	—	-$34.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 68.5¢	$125.42	$183.12	+$57.7
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 76¢	$147.31	$179.39	+$32.08	51% 17056-16600 (33656)
└ Up leg	Upavg 5.5¢	$11	—	-$11
└ Down leg	Downavg 76¢	$136.31	$179.39	+$43.08
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$202.38	$207.24	+$4.87	55% 7387-6056 (13443)
└ Down leg	Downavg 79.3¢	$164.4	$207.24	+$42.84
└ Up leg	Upavg 23¢	$37.98	—	-$37.98
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 71.4¢	$186.91	$215.56	+$28.64	57% 12461-9593 (22054)
└ Down leg	Downavg 71.4¢	$153.86	$215.56	+$61.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.3¢	$33.05	—	-$33.05
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Downavg 91.6¢	$218.92	$226	+$7.08	57% 7784-5961 (13745)
└ Down leg	Downavg 91.6¢	$207.02	$226	+$18.98
└ Up leg	Upavg 19.8¢	$11.9	—	-$11.9
MayorMamdani	Downavg 97.4¢	$139.38	$143.05	+$3.67	55% 44748-37210 (81958)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 99¢	$130.69	$131	+$0.31	58% 37772-27004 (64776)
NIULAI4<$100	Downavg 92.4¢	$94.27	$99.5	+$5.23	77% 9373-2811 (12184)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 74¢	$26.6	$28	+$1.4	52% 90119-84595 (174714)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 54¢	$42.85	$79.35	+$36.5	34% 18742-35744 (54486)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Downavg 64¢	$49.6	$77.52	+$27.92	66% 112049-58418 (170467)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 98¢	$59.4	$60.61	+$1.21	65% 124925-66828 (191753)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 54.5¢	$31.32	$57.5	+$26.18	59% 6714-4692 (11406)
SI sir-upalot<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$37.76	$51.46	+$13.69	55% 23835-19256 (43091)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 5¢	$16.4	—	+$1.24	61% 94696-59644 (154340)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$1,445.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$34.78

Record

93%

23242-1759 (25001)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$714.02

Value

$699.36

PnL

-$14.66

Record

66%

99109-51360 (150469)

Both legs:

Up$182.6717.4¢-$182.67

Down$531.3476¢+$168.01

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$845.83

Value

$854.37

PnL

+$8.54

Record

59%

62167-43333 (105500)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Down

Invested

$668.89

Value

$685.97

PnL

+$17.07

Record

54%

15489-12934 (28423)

Both legs:

Up$185.9622.1¢-$185.96

Down$482.9370.4¢+$203.03

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$416.7

Value

$450.41

PnL

+$33.71

Record

56%

13744-10928 (24672)

Both legs:

Down$322.6371.6¢+$127.78

Up$94.0722.4¢-$94.07

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$292.07

Value

$300.7

PnL

+$8.63

Record

60%

12176-8043 (20219)

Both legs:

Down$237.8379.1¢+$62.87

Up$54.2423.9¢-$54.24

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$133.39

Value

$100

PnL

-$33.39

Record

55%

8602-7038 (15640)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$249.54

Value

$260.84

PnL

+$11.3

Record

49%

5188-5334 (10522)

Both legs:

Down$230.3788.3¢+$30.47

Up$19.169.2¢-$19.16

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$239.68

Value

$231.08

PnL

-$8.6

Record

54%

7970-6670 (14640)

Both legs:

Down$198.7286¢+$32.36

Up$40.9617.7¢-$40.96

EZTRADENL2ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$255.36

Value

$265.38

PnL

+$10.02

Record

57%

11965-8970 (20935)

Both legs:

Down$214.3680.8¢+$51.02

Up$4129.3¢-$41

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$159.87

Value

$183.12

PnL

+$23.25

Record

64%

58184-32863 (91047)

Both legs:

Up$34.4516.8¢-$34.45

Down$125.4268.5¢+$57.7

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$147.31

Value

$179.39

PnL

+$32.08

Record

51%

17056-16600 (33656)

Both legs:

Up$115.5¢-$11

Down$136.3176¢+$43.08

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$202.38

Value

$207.24

PnL

+$4.87

Record

55%

7387-6056 (13443)

Both legs:

Down$164.479.3¢+$42.84

Up$37.9823¢-$37.98

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$186.91

Value

$215.56

PnL

+$28.64

Record

57%

12461-9593 (22054)

Both legs:

Down$153.8671.4¢+$61.7

Up$33.0523.3¢-$33.05

wzbbbARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.92

Value

$226

PnL

+$7.08

Record

57%

7784-5961 (13745)

Both legs:

Down$207.0291.6¢+$18.98

Up$11.919.8¢-$11.9

MayorMamdani

Down

Invested

$139.38

Value

$143.05

PnL

+$3.67

Record

55%

44748-37210 (81958)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$130.69

Value

$131

PnL

+$0.31

Record

58%

37772-27004 (64776)

NIULAI4<$100

Down

Invested

$94.27

Value

$99.5

PnL

+$5.23

Record

77%

9373-2811 (12184)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$26.6

Value

$28

PnL

+$1.4

Record

52%

90119-84595 (174714)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$42.85

Value

$79.35

PnL

+$36.5

Record

34%

18742-35744 (54486)

antsaslyku<$100

Down

Invested

$49.6

Value

$77.52

PnL

+$27.92

Record

66%

112049-58418 (170467)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$59.4

Value

$60.61

PnL

+$1.21

Record

65%

124925-66828 (191753)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$31.32

Value

$57.5

PnL

+$26.18

Record

59%

6714-4692 (11406)

sir-upalot<$100

Down

Invested

$37.76

Value

$51.46

PnL

+$13.69

Record

55%

23835-19256 (43091)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$16.4

Value

—

PnL

+$1.24

Record

61%

94696-59644 (154340)

Smart Money Signal

Down

17 of 21 top traders (81%)12 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xc4434ff7...f4d554

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793330100

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $1.5K

+$34.78

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$14.66

0x50f7

Down — $854.37

+$8.54

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$8.63

machinelearned

Down — $100

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

EZTRADENL2

Arbitrage — excluded