Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 74% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
27
Down 74%
2 arb excluded
$5.0K
$155.32
Smart Money Signal
20 of 27 top traders (74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Downavg 95.2¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$7.63 | 66% 99109-51360 (150469) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Downavg 73¢ | $586.58 | $640.73 | +$54.15 | 54% 15489-12934 (28423) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $412.14 | $416.3 | +$4.16 | 93% 23242-1759 (25001) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $321.83 | $309.63 | -$12.2 | 64% 58184-32863 (91047) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 69.5¢ | $215.04 | $309.63 | +$94.59 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 16.8¢ | $106.79 | — | -$106.79 | |
13 13897651 | Downavg 58¢ | $299.64 | $388 | +$88.36 | 59% 6714-4692 (11406) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2.4¢ | $20.3 | — | -$20.3 | 59% 62167-43333 (105500) |
GO GoodFallenARB<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $162 | $144.15 | -$17.85 | 56% 13744-10928 (24672) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71¢ | $102.4 | $144.15 | +$41.75 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.8¢ | $59.6 | — | -$59.6 | |
PL ply-pm0 | Downavg 74.3¢ | $150.17 | $170.94 | +$20.77 | 49% 5188-5334 (10522) |
WZ wzbbb | Downavg 87¢ | $143.28 | $134.56 | -$8.72 | 57% 7784-5961 (13745) |
 machinelearned | Downavg 84¢ | $113.75 | $135.37 | +$21.62 | 55% 8602-7038 (15640) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Downavg 75.9¢ | $92.86 | $109.27 | +$16.4 | 57% 11965-8970 (20935) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Downavg 88.9¢ | $95.66 | $101.12 | +$9.16 | 55% 7387-6056 (13443) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Downavg 80.2¢ | $63.51 | $55.03 | -$8.49 | 60% 12176-8043 (20219) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $60.26 | — | -$60.26 | 58% 37772-27004 (64776) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $72.28 | $95.1 | +$22.82 | 58% 60444-44134 (104578) |
SF sfkjbsr457<$100 | Downavg 90.4¢ | $56.05 | $43.64 | -$12.42 | 54% 7970-6670 (14640) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $44.31 | $88.62 | +$44.31 | 58% 50956-37091 (88047) |
 FairValueMachine<$100 | Downavg 67.5¢ | $36.35 | $43.66 | +$7.31 | 57% 12461-9593 (22054) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $28.38 | $33.32 | +$4.94 | 64% 22856-12613 (35469) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 29.3¢ | $28 | — | -$28 | 58% 12615-9290 (21905) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $21.28 | $39.4 | +$18.12 | 34% 18742-35744 (54486) |
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.66 | — | -$9.66 | — |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $7.79 | $11.29 | +$3.5 | 55% 23835-19256 (43091) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Downavg 63¢ | $4.92 | $7.81 | +$2.89 | 66% 112049-58418 (170467) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 26.5¢ | $6.72 | — | -$6.72 | 61% 94696-59644 (154340) |
Invested
$2,027.12
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$7.63
Record
66%
99109-51360 (150469)
Invested
$586.58
Value
$640.73
PnL
+$54.15
Record
54%
15489-12934 (28423)
Invested
$412.14
Value
$416.3
PnL
+$4.16
Record
93%
23242-1759 (25001)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$321.83
Value
$309.63
PnL
-$12.2
Record
64%
58184-32863 (91047)
Both legs:
Invested
$299.64
Value
$388
PnL
+$88.36
Record
59%
6714-4692 (11406)
Invested
$20.3
Value
—
PnL
-$20.3
Record
59%
62167-43333 (105500)
Invested
$162
Value
$144.15
PnL
-$17.85
Record
56%
13744-10928 (24672)
Both legs:
Invested
$150.17
Value
$170.94
PnL
+$20.77
Record
49%
5188-5334 (10522)
Invested
$143.28
Value
$134.56
PnL
-$8.72
Record
57%
7784-5961 (13745)
machinelearnedInvested
$113.75
Value
$135.37
PnL
+$21.62
Record
55%
8602-7038 (15640)
Invested
$92.86
Value
$109.27
PnL
+$16.4
Record
57%
11965-8970 (20935)
Invested
$95.66
Value
$101.12
PnL
+$9.16
Record
55%
7387-6056 (13443)
Invested
$63.51
Value
$55.03
PnL
-$8.49
Record
60%
12176-8043 (20219)
Invested
$60.26
Value
—
PnL
-$60.26
Record
58%
37772-27004 (64776)
Invested
$72.28
Value
$95.1
PnL
+$22.82
Record
58%
60444-44134 (104578)
Invested
$56.05
Value
$43.64
PnL
-$12.42
Record
54%
7970-6670 (14640)
Invested
$44.31
Value
$88.62
PnL
+$44.31
Record
58%
50956-37091 (88047)
FairValueMachine<$100Invested
$36.35
Value
$43.66
PnL
+$7.31
Record
57%
12461-9593 (22054)
Invested
$28.38
Value
$33.32
PnL
+$4.94
Record
64%
22856-12613 (35469)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$28
Value
—
PnL
-$28
Record
58%
12615-9290 (21905)
Invested
$21.28
Value
$39.4
PnL
+$18.12
Record
34%
18742-35744 (54486)
Invested
$9.66
Value
—
PnL
-$9.66
Record
—
Invested
$7.79
Value
$11.29
PnL
+$3.5
Record
55%
23835-19256 (43091)
Invested
$4.92
Value
$7.81
PnL
+$2.89
Record
66%
112049-58418 (170467)
Invested
$6.72
Value
—
PnL
-$6.72
Record
61%
94696-59644 (154340)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Down — $2.0K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Down — $640.73
hoodquant
Down — $416.3
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
13897651
Down — $388
0x50f7
CTRUp — $0
GoodFallen
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm0
Down — $170.94
wzbbb
Down — $134.56
machinelearned
Down — $135.37