Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 62%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.0K

Combined PnL

-$368.63

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down14 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,157

Combined PnL+$410.26

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,765

Combined PnL-$778.89

Down — 64%Up — 36%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Downavg 99¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$27.92	59% 62165-43330 (105495)
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 93¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$75.87	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 42.1¢	$400	—	-$400	37% 149-258 (407)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$573.21	$579	+$5.79	93% 23201-1758 (24959)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 64.6¢	$364.66	$383.05	+$18.39	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 64.6¢	$290.84	$330.5	+$39.66	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
└ Down leg	Downavg 64.6¢	$213.49	$330.5	+$117.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 18.5¢	$77.35	—	-$77.35
SF sfkjbsr457	Downavg 72.6¢	$182.92	$199.58	+$16.66	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR	Upavg 42¢	$126	—	-$126	48% 23233-25499 (48732)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 82.6¢	$187.23	$130	-$57.23	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 82.6¢	$107.32	$130	+$22.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$79.91	—	-$79.91
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 23.6¢	$155.62	$89.38	-$48.6	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
└ Down leg	Downavg 78.1¢	$69.8	$89.38	+$23.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 23.6¢	$71.76	—	-$71.76
machinelearned	Downavg 57.7¢	$105.73	$154.99	+$49.26	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 73.4¢	$144.49	$130.12	-$14.37	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 73.4¢	$95.45	$130.12	+$34.66
└ Up leg	Upavg 37¢	$49.04	—	-$49.04
LI Little-big	Downavg 48.7¢	$122.28	$251.17	+$128.89	34% 18735-35730 (54465)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Upavg 53.8¢	$163.75	$94.92	-$68.83	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52.7¢	$50	$94.92	+$44.91
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.8¢	$113.74	—	-$113.74
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025	Downavg 58.4¢	$86.66	$125.21	+$38.55	58% 60418-44109 (104527)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 60¢	$61	$99.99	+$39	51% 17046-16595 (33641)
└ Down leg	Downavg 60¢	$60	$99.99	+$40
└ Up leg	Upavg 1¢	$1	—	-$1
WZ wzbbb<$100	Downavg 69.2¢	$71.54	$86.13	+$14.59	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
ohioism	Downavg 76¢	$76.04	$100.05	+$24.01	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
0D 0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$69.71	—	-$69.71	—
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 45.8¢	$56.46	—	-$56.46	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$57.47	—	-$57.47	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 50.8¢	$58.12	—	-$58.12	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 79¢	$13.1	$16.58	+$3.48	65% 4016-2173 (6189)
NO Nobey1<$100	Downavg 73¢	$7.3	$10	+$2.7	40% 461-689 (1150)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 31.2¢	$8.52	—	-$8.52	52% 90065-84555 (174620)

0x50f7

Down

Invested

$2,764.15

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$27.92

Record

59%

62165-43330 (105495)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$2,378.72

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$75.87

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$400

Value

—

PnL

-$400

Record

37%

149-258 (407)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$573.21

Value

$579

PnL

+$5.79

Record

93%

23201-1758 (24959)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$364.66

Value

$383.05

PnL

+$18.39

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$290.84

Value

$330.5

PnL

+$39.66

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

Both legs:

Down$213.4964.6¢+$117.01

Up$77.3518.5¢-$77.35

sfkjbsr457

Down

Invested

$182.92

Value

$199.58

PnL

+$16.66

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR

Invested

$126

Value

—

PnL

-$126

Record

48%

23233-25499 (48732)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$187.23

Value

$130

PnL

-$57.23

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

Both legs:

Down$107.3282.6¢+$22.68

Up$79.9143.3¢-$79.91

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$155.62

Value

$89.38

PnL

-$48.6

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

Both legs:

Down$69.878.1¢+$23.16

Up$71.7623.6¢-$71.76

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$105.73

Value

$154.99

PnL

+$49.26

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.49

Value

$130.12

PnL

-$14.37

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

Both legs:

Down$95.4573.4¢+$34.66

Up$49.0437¢-$49.04

Little-big

Down

Invested

$122.28

Value

$251.17

PnL

+$128.89

Record

34%

18735-35730 (54465)

13897651ARB<$100

Invested

$163.75

Value

$94.92

PnL

-$68.83

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

Both legs:

Down$5052.7¢+$44.91

Up$113.7453.8¢-$113.74

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025

Down

Invested

$86.66

Value

$125.21

PnL

+$38.55

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61

Value

$99.99

PnL

+$39

Record

51%

17046-16595 (33641)

Both legs:

Invested

$71.54

Value

$86.13

PnL

+$14.59

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

ohioism

Down

Invested

$76.04

Value

$100.05

PnL

+$24.01

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

0x0d2d...7ff5CTR<$100

Invested

$69.71

Value

—

PnL

-$69.71

Record

—

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$56.46

Value

—

PnL

-$56.46

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$57.47

Value

—

PnL

-$57.47

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$58.12

Value

—

PnL

-$58.12

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$13.1

Value

$16.58

PnL

+$3.48

Record

65%

4016-2173 (6189)

Nobey1<$100

Down

Invested

$7.3

Value

$10

PnL

+$2.7

Record

40%

461-689 (1150)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$8.52

Value

—

PnL

-$8.52

Record

52%

90065-84555 (174620)

Smart Money Signal

Down

14 of 22 top traders (64%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x617e655b...c47d50

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793328600

Traders in this Market

0x50f7

Down — $2.8K

+$27.92

Bonereaper

Down — $2.5K

+$75.87

Imgonnadoit

CTR

Up — $0

-$400

hoodquant

Down — $579

+$5.79

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $383.05

+$18.39

ply-pm0

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$39.66

sfkjbsr457

Down — $199.58

+$16.66

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

CTR

Up — $0

-$126

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded