Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 69%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$244.23

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,003

Combined PnL+$333.92

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares195

Combined PnL-$89.69

Up — 69%Down — 31%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Upavg 76.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$8.67	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
└ Up leg	Upavg 76.9¢	$981.26	$1.3K	+$295.05
└ Down leg	Downavg 30.1¢	$303.71	—	-$303.71
NIULAI4	Upavg 91.2¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$98.53	77% 9369-2808 (12177)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Upavg 71.6¢	$463.84	$478.04	+$14.2	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
└ Up leg	Upavg 71.6¢	$342.11	$478.04	+$135.93
└ Down leg	Downavg 27¢	$121.73	—	-$121.73
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 32.8¢	$335.71	$383.87	+$48.16	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.4¢	$158.8	$383.87	+$225.07
└ Down leg	Downavg 32.8¢	$176.91	—	-$176.91
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100	Downavg 44.9¢	$351.16	$112.33	-$238.83	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
└ Down leg	Downavg 44.9¢	$292.19	—	-$292.19
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$58.97	$112.33	+$53.36
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 63.7¢	$199.24	$205.07	+$5.83	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.7¢	$130.61	$205.07	+$74.46
└ Down leg	Downavg 39¢	$68.64	—	-$68.64
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 63.1¢	$189.3	$230.28	+$40.98	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 59.5¢	$123.5	$137	+$13.5	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 59.5¢	$81.57	$137	+$55.43
└ Down leg	Downavg 36.1¢	$41.93	—	-$41.93
machinelearned<$100	Upavg 61.4¢	$72.83	$94	+$21.17	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 52.5¢	$46.86	$73.75	+$26.89	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52.5¢	$38.72	$73.75	+$35.03
└ Down leg	Downavg 9.7¢	$8.15	—	-$8.15
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 63¢	$56.46	$82.41	+$25.95	56% 57906-44729 (102635)
ohioism	Upavg 68¢	$102.05	$150.08	+$48.03	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Upavg 84.6¢	$75.44	$63.16	-$12.28	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
└ Up leg	Upavg 84.6¢	$53.45	$63.16	+$9.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 29¢	$21.99	—	-$21.99
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Downavg 33.7¢	$54.78	$35.74	-$19.03	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
└ Down leg	Downavg 33.7¢	$34.36	—	-$34.36
└ Up leg	Upavg 57.1¢	$20.42	$35.74	+$15.32
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Upavg 93¢	$69.92	$75.18	+$5.26	58% 60418-44109 (104527)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 51.9¢	$71.82	$138.27	+$66.45	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 58.3¢	$53.52	$60	+$18.51	64% 22780-12562 (35342)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$30.68	—	-$30.68	52% 90065-84555 (174620)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100	Upavg 93.2¢	$29.24	$31.38	+$2.14	63% 51732-30464 (82196)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$14.7	$15	+$0.3	93% 23201-1758 (24959)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 56.9¢	$45.3	—	-$45.3	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Downavg 14.5¢	$17.89	—	+$2.79	61% 94646-59611 (154257)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 56.4¢	$8.5	—	-$8.5	34% 18735-35730 (54465)
NO Nobey1<$100	Upavg 34¢	$3.4	$10	+$6.6	40% 461-689 (1150)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$8	—	-$8	58% 12603-9272 (21875)

BonereaperARB<$100

Invested

$1,284.97

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$8.67

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

Both legs:

Up$981.2676.9¢+$295.05

Down$303.7130.1¢-$303.71

NIULAI4

Invested

$1,017.47

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$98.53

Record

77%

9369-2808 (12177)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Invested

$463.84

Value

$478.04

PnL

+$14.2

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

Both legs:

Up$342.1171.6¢+$135.93

Down$121.7327¢-$121.73

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$335.71

Value

$383.87

PnL

+$48.16

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

Both legs:

Up$158.841.4¢+$225.07

Down$176.9132.8¢-$176.91

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$351.16

Value

$112.33

PnL

-$238.83

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

Both legs:

Down$292.1944.9¢-$292.19

Up$58.9752.5¢+$53.36

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$199.24

Value

$205.07

PnL

+$5.83

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

Both legs:

Up$130.6163.7¢+$74.46

Down$68.6439¢-$68.64

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$189.3

Value

$230.28

PnL

+$40.98

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$123.5

Value

$137

PnL

+$13.5

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

Both legs:

Up$81.5759.5¢+$55.43

Down$41.9336.1¢-$41.93

machinelearned<$100

Invested

$72.83

Value

$94

PnL

+$21.17

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$46.86

Value

$73.75

PnL

+$26.89

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

Both legs:

Up$38.7252.5¢+$35.03

Down$8.159.7¢-$8.15

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$56.46

Value

$82.41

PnL

+$25.95

Record

56%

57906-44729 (102635)

ohioism

Invested

$102.05

Value

$150.08

PnL

+$48.03

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Invested

$75.44

Value

$63.16

PnL

-$12.28

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

Both legs:

Invested

$54.78

Value

$35.74

PnL

-$19.03

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

Both legs:

Down$34.3633.7¢-$34.36

Up$20.4257.1¢+$15.32

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Invested

$69.92

Value

$75.18

PnL

+$5.26

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$71.82

Value

$138.27

PnL

+$66.45

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$53.52

Value

$60

PnL

+$18.51

Record

64%

22780-12562 (35342)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$30.68

Value

—

PnL

-$30.68

Record

52%

90065-84555 (174620)

UpandDownSyndrome<$100

Invested

$29.24

Value

$31.38

PnL

+$2.14

Record

63%

51732-30464 (82196)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$14.7

Value

$15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

93%

23201-1758 (24959)

13897651CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$45.3

Value

—

PnL

-$45.3

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$17.89

Value

—

PnL

+$2.79

Record

61%

94646-59611 (154257)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.5

Value

—

PnL

-$8.5

Record

34%

18735-35730 (54465)

Nobey1<$100

Invested

$3.4

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.6

Record

40%

461-689 (1150)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$8

Record

58%

12603-9272 (21875)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 16 top traders (69%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x5a07d79e...bbdf05

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793328000

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$8.67

NIULAI4

Up — $1.1K

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$238.83

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$5.83

sfkjbsr457

Up — $230.28

+$40.98

wzbbb

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$13.5

machinelearned

Up — $94

+$21.17

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$26.89

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