Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
Resolved Up. 85% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Up 89%
1 arb excluded
$4.5K
$120.77
Smart Money Signal
17 of 20 top traders (85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 92.3¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$116.17 | 66% 99090-51342 (150432) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98.4¢ | $969.52 | $985 | +$15.48 | 93% 23201-1758 (24959) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 96.9¢ | $570.46 | $561.66 | -$8.81 | 64% 58160-32830 (90990) |
0X 0x50f7 | Upavg 99.9¢ | $471.47 | $393.18 | -$78.29 | 59% 62165-43330 (105495) |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 92.8¢ | $140.98 | $151.99 | +$11.01 | 55% 7812-6453 (14265) |
13 13897651 | Upavg 50.2¢ | $118.39 | $126.1 | +$7.71 | 59% 6704-4682 (11386) |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 75.8¢ | $107.6 | $141.98 | +$34.38 | 57% 11959-8957 (20916) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e<$100 | Upavg 92¢ | $84.36 | $88 | +$3.64 | 55% 7377-6046 (13423) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding<$100 | Upavg 75.2¢ | $77.56 | $92.99 | +$15.44 | 60% 12163-8036 (20199) |
 machinelearnedARB<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $76.69 | $50 | -$26.69 | 55% 8592-7028 (15620) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 96¢ | $48 | $50 | +$2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 2.6¢ | $28.69 | — | -$28.69 | |
PL ply-pm0<$100 | Upavg 69.7¢ | $38.34 | $54.99 | +$16.65 | 49% 5176-5326 (10502) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 53.5¢ | $31.81 | — | -$31.81 | 34% 18735-35730 (54465) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 94.5¢ | $25.7 | $27.21 | +$1.51 | 61% 94646-59611 (154257) |
GA gansinimen<$100 | Upavg 85¢ | $14.96 | $17.6 | +$2.64 | 51% 17046-16595 (33641) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $12.77 | $14.68 | +$1.91 | 64% 22780-12562 (35342) |
HS Hsilverbasher<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $14.08 | $22 | +$7.92 | 12% 18272-132972 (151244) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 96.2¢ | $12.51 | $13 | +$0.49 | 52% 90065-84555 (174620) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Upavg 62¢ | $13.02 | $21 | +$7.98 | 57% 7773-5955 (13728) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 22¢ | $3.24 | — | -$3.24 | 58% 37751-26971 (64722) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 461-689 (1150) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19993-19160 (39153) |
Invested
$1,616.74
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$116.17
Record
66%
99090-51342 (150432)
Invested
$969.52
Value
$985
PnL
+$15.48
Record
93%
23201-1758 (24959)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$570.46
Value
$561.66
PnL
-$8.81
Record
64%
58160-32830 (90990)
Invested
$471.47
Value
$393.18
PnL
-$78.29
Record
59%
62165-43330 (105495)
Invested
$140.98
Value
$151.99
PnL
+$11.01
Record
55%
7812-6453 (14265)
Invested
$118.39
Value
$126.1
PnL
+$7.71
Record
59%
6704-4682 (11386)
Invested
$107.6
Value
$141.98
PnL
+$34.38
Record
57%
11959-8957 (20916)
Invested
$84.36
Value
$88
PnL
+$3.64
Record
55%
7377-6046 (13423)
Invested
$77.56
Value
$92.99
PnL
+$15.44
Record
60%
12163-8036 (20199)
machinelearnedARB<$100Invested
$76.69
Value
$50
PnL
-$26.69
Record
55%
8592-7028 (15620)
Both legs:
Invested
$38.34
Value
$54.99
PnL
+$16.65
Record
49%
5176-5326 (10502)
Invested
$31.81
Value
—
PnL
-$31.81
Record
34%
18735-35730 (54465)
Invested
$25.7
Value
$27.21
PnL
+$1.51
Record
61%
94646-59611 (154257)
Invested
$14.96
Value
$17.6
PnL
+$2.64
Record
51%
17046-16595 (33641)
Invested
$12.77
Value
$14.68
PnL
+$1.91
Record
64%
22780-12562 (35342)
Invested
$14.08
Value
$22
PnL
+$7.92
Record
12%
18272-132972 (151244)
Invested
$12.51
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.49
Record
52%
90065-84555 (174620)
Invested
$13.02
Value
$21
PnL
+$7.98
Record
57%
7773-5955 (13728)
Invested
$3.24
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
58%
37751-26971 (64722)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
461-689 (1150)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19993-19160 (39153)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $1.7K
hoodquant
Up — $985
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $561.66
0x50f7
Up — $393.18
sfkjbsr457
Up — $151.99
13897651
Up — $126.1
EZTRADENL2
Up — $141.98
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $88
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
Up — $92.99
machinelearned
ARBArbitrage — excluded