Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 45% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 47%

8 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$319.45

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 20 top traders (45%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,108

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,261

Combined PnL-$775.25

Down — 45%Up — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$895.95	$905	+$9.05	93% 23201-1758 (24959)
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 65.7¢	$901.45	$1.0K	+$114.07	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.7¢	$667.46	$1.0K	+$348.06
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$233.99	—	-$233.99
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58.8¢	$428.04	$414.91	-$13.13	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
└ Up leg	Upavg 48.6¢	$184.16	—	-$184.16
└ Down leg	Downavg 58.8¢	$243.89	$414.91	+$171.02
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 51.1¢	$494.1	$966.09	+$471.99	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 62.5¢	$326.55	$189.99	-$136.56	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.5¢	$236.49	—	-$236.49
└ Down leg	Downavg 47.4¢	$90.06	$189.99	+$99.93
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 84.7¢	$424.81	$300	-$124.81	51% 17046-16595 (33641)
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.6¢	$170.81	—	-$170.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 84.7¢	$254	$300	+$46
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69.8¢	$354.53	$325.9	-$28.63	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 47¢	$127.11	—	-$127.11
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.8¢	$227.42	$325.9	+$98.47
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Upavg 43.3¢	$183.41	$137.18	-$46.23	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.3¢	$93.81	—	-$93.81
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.3¢	$89.6	$137.18	+$47.57
AN antsaslykuCTR	Upavg 52¢	$179.3	—	-$179.3	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Downavg 74¢	$218.03	$172.47	-$45.56	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$90.4	—	-$90.4
└ Down leg	Downavg 74¢	$127.63	$172.47	+$44.84
ohioismCTR	Upavg 53¢	$119.38	—	-$119.38	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
machinelearnedCTR	Upavg 39¢	$119.64	—	-$119.64	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
13 13897651CTR<$100	Upavg 47.1¢	$89.03	—	-$89.03	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 57.7¢	$97.38	—	-$97.38	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 55¢	$82.58	—	-$82.58	58% 60418-44109 (104527)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 45¢	$36.37	—	-$36.37	56% 57906-44729 (102635)
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 65.1¢	$61	$67.15	+$6.14	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
└ Up leg	Upavg 43.8¢	$17.32	—	-$17.32
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.1¢	$43.69	$67.15	+$23.46
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 46.8¢	$37.75	—	-$37.75	58% 12603-9272 (21875)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 40.8¢	$44.49	$109	+$64.51	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 46¢	$37.6	$57.39	+$19.79	61% 94646-59611 (154257)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 51¢	$58.2	$30	-$9.45	64% 22780-12562 (35342)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 57.1¢	$13.82	—	-$13.82	52% 90065-84555 (174620)
Atomforge<$100	Downavg 68.7¢	$17.19	$15.35	-$1.84	65% 4016-2173 (6189)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 49¢	$9.8	$20	+$10.2	12% 18272-132972 (151244)
RL RLWG<$100	Downavg 36¢	$1.8	$5	+$3.2	50% 7795-7813 (15608)

hoodquant

Down

Invested

$895.95

Value

$905

PnL

+$9.05

Record

93%

23201-1758 (24959)

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$901.45

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$114.07

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

Both legs:

Down$667.4665.7¢+$348.06

Up$233.9953.7¢-$233.99

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$428.04

Value

$414.91

PnL

-$13.13

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

Both legs:

Up$184.1648.6¢-$184.16

Down$243.8958.8¢+$171.02

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$494.1

Value

$966.09

PnL

+$471.99

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$326.55

Value

$189.99

PnL

-$136.56

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

Both legs:

Up$236.4962.5¢-$236.49

Down$90.0647.4¢+$99.93

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$424.81

Value

$300

PnL

-$124.81

Record

51%

17046-16595 (33641)

Both legs:

Up$170.8155.6¢-$170.81

Down$25484.7¢+$46

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$354.53

Value

$325.9

PnL

-$28.63

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

Both legs:

Up$127.1147¢-$127.11

Down$227.4269.8¢+$98.47

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Invested

$183.41

Value

$137.18

PnL

-$46.23

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

Both legs:

Up$93.8143.3¢-$93.81

Down$89.665.3¢+$47.57

antsaslykuCTR

Invested

$179.3

Value

—

PnL

-$179.3

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$218.03

Value

$172.47

PnL

-$45.56

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

Both legs:

Up$90.452¢-$90.4

Down$127.6374¢+$44.84

ohioismCTR

Invested

$119.38

Value

—

PnL

-$119.38

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

machinelearnedCTR

Invested

$119.64

Value

—

PnL

-$119.64

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

13897651CTR<$100

Invested

$89.03

Value

—

PnL

-$89.03

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$97.38

Value

—

PnL

-$97.38

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$82.58

Value

—

PnL

-$82.58

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$36.37

Value

—

PnL

-$36.37

Record

56%

57906-44729 (102635)

sir-upalotARB<$100

Down

Invested

$61

Value

$67.15

PnL

+$6.14

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

Both legs:

Up$17.3243.8¢-$17.32

Down$43.6965.1¢+$23.46

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$37.75

Value

—

PnL

-$37.75

Record

58%

12603-9272 (21875)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$44.49

Value

$109

PnL

+$64.51

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$37.6

Value

$57.39

PnL

+$19.79

Record

61%

94646-59611 (154257)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$58.2

Value

$30

PnL

-$9.45

Record

64%

22780-12562 (35342)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$13.82

Value

—

PnL

-$13.82

Record

52%

90065-84555 (174620)

Atomforge<$100

Down

Invested

$17.19

Value

$15.35

PnL

-$1.84

Record

65%

4016-2173 (6189)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$20

PnL

+$10.2

Record

12%

18272-132972 (151244)

RLWG<$100

Down

Invested

$1.8

Value

PnL

+$3.2

Record

50%

7795-7813 (15608)

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 20 top traders (45%)8 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x8a1ef31b...592890

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793327400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Down — $905

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $966.09

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

gansinimen

Arbitrage — excluded

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

sfkjbsr457

Arbitrage — excluded

antsaslyku

Up — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$45.56

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