Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 52%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.8K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 36 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$11.2K

Total Shares11,165

Combined PnL+$3.2K

Down18 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares8,463

Combined PnL$-7.0K

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$32.23	56% 29340-23030 (52370)
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR	Downavg 59.4¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	54% 15475-12928 (28403)
NIULAI4	Upavg 76.9¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$66.35	77% 9369-2808 (12177)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 42.4¢	$856.92	$1.1K	+$212.47	56% 13732-10920 (24652)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 16.2¢	$382.06	$1.7K	+$1.3K	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
BO BonereaperCTR	Downavg 74.7¢	$1.6K	—	$-1.6K	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
PL ply-pm0CTR	Downavg 28.4¢	$894.76	—	-$894.76	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 42.5¢	$612.25	$869.96	+$257.72	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
GA gansinimenCTR	Downavg 35.9¢	$593.48	—	-$593.48	51% 17046-16595 (33641)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 34.6¢	$428	$635.43	+$207.43	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
FairValueMachine	Upavg 57.3¢	$574.15	$616.44	+$42.29	56% 12446-9588 (22034)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR	Downavg 48.5¢	$651.11	—	-$651.11	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
WZ wzbbbCTR	Downavg 77.4¢	$368.88	—	-$368.88	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 51.8¢	$299.23	$411.87	+$112.64	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
wowitsamazing	Upavg 24.9¢	$139.4	$417.7	+$278.3	58% 12603-9272 (21875)
DV dvasdkasodk	Upavg 73.2¢	$268.09	$255.05	-$13.04	52% 90065-84555 (174620)
AN antsaslykuCTR	Downavg 39.4¢	$292.56	—	-$292.56	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 62.6¢	$165.1	$155.88	-$9.22	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
ohioismCTR	Downavg 67.8¢	$211.55	—	-$211.55	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 59.8¢	$144.02	$110.3	-$33.72	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 59.8¢	$91.52	—	-$91.52
└ Up leg	Upavg 47.6¢	$52.5	$110.3	+$57.8
MayorMamdani	Upavg 99¢	$194.83	$110	-$84.83	55% 44709-37178 (81887)
machinelearned	Upavg 39.7¢	$70.91	$178.5	+$107.59	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 33.9¢	$359.03	$99.85	+$12.44	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR	Downavg 65.4¢	$208.87	—	-$208.87	58% 60418-44109 (104527)
BoneOhioCTR	Downavg 86¢	$172.47	—	-$172.47	74% 102400-36373 (138773)

THG.

Invested

$3,190.77

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$32.23

Record

56%

29340-23030 (52370)

dangerously-skip-permissionsCTR

Down

Invested

$1,871.08

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

54%

15475-12928 (28403)

NIULAI4

Invested

$1,238.93

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$66.35

Record

77%

9369-2808 (12177)

GoodFallen

Invested

$856.92

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$212.47

Record

56%

13732-10920 (24652)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$382.06

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

BonereaperCTR

Down

Invested

$1,589.73

Value

—

PnL

$-1.6K

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

ply-pm0CTR

Down

Invested

$894.76

Value

—

PnL

-$894.76

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$612.25

Value

$869.96

PnL

+$257.72

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

gansinimenCTR

Down

Invested

$593.48

Value

—

PnL

-$593.48

Record

51%

17046-16595 (33641)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$428

Value

$635.43

PnL

+$207.43

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

FairValueMachine

Invested

$574.15

Value

$616.44

PnL

+$42.29

Record

56%

12446-9588 (22034)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eCTR

Down

Invested

$651.11

Value

—

PnL

-$651.11

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

wzbbbCTR

Down

Invested

$368.88

Value

—

PnL

-$368.88

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$299.23

Value

$411.87

PnL

+$112.64

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

wowitsamazing

Invested

$139.4

Value

$417.7

PnL

+$278.3

Record

58%

12603-9272 (21875)

dvasdkasodk

Invested

$268.09

Value

$255.05

PnL

-$13.04

Record

52%

90065-84555 (174620)

antsaslykuCTR

Down

Invested

$292.56

Value

—

PnL

-$292.56

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

sir-upalot

Invested

$165.1

Value

$155.88

PnL

-$9.22

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

ohioismCTR

Down

Invested

$211.55

Value

—

PnL

-$211.55

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$144.02

Value

$110.3

PnL

-$33.72

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

Both legs:

Down$91.5259.8¢-$91.52

Up$52.547.6¢+$57.8

MayorMamdani

Invested

$194.83

Value

$110

PnL

-$84.83

Record

55%

44709-37178 (81887)

machinelearned

Invested

$70.91

Value

$178.5

PnL

+$107.59

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$359.03

Value

$99.85

PnL

+$12.44

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR

Down

Invested

$208.87

Value

—

PnL

-$208.87

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

BoneOhioCTR

Down

Invested

$172.47

Value

—

PnL

-$172.47

Record

74%

102400-36373 (138773)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 36 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed18 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x59e7a443...9bbdee

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793323800

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $3.2K

+$32.23

dangerously-skip-permissions

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.9K

NIULAI4

Up — $1.3K

+$66.35

GoodFallen

Up — $1.1K

+$212.47

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $1.7K

Bonereaper

Down — $0

ply-pm0

Down — $0

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $869.96

+$257.72

gansinimen

CTR

Down — $0

-$593.48

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $635.43

+$207.43

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