Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.

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RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Up 62%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.7K

Combined PnL

$1.4K

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up18 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares9,005

Combined PnL+$2.4K

Down11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,162

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH THG.	Upavg 99¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$24.95	56% 29340-23030 (52370)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Upavg 57.6¢	$1.0K	$1.3K	+$260.84	54% 15475-12928 (28403)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 44.6¢	$1.0K	$2.3K	+$1.3K	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
GO GoodFallen	Upavg 60.7¢	$444.26	$649.09	+$204.83	56% 13732-10920 (24652)
Polkadot-FrogCTR	Downavg 41.2¢	$633.79	—	-$621.91	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
PL ply-pm0	Upavg 69.4¢	$420.79	$435.21	+$14.43	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
machinelearned	Upavg 86.9¢	$376.05	$425	+$48.95	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
BO Bonereaper	Upavg 55.7¢	$273.05	$302.26	+$29.21	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 63.9¢	$298.4	$316.87	+$18.47	56% 12446-9588 (22034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 63.9¢	$202.42	$316.87	+$114.45
└ Down leg	Downavg 48.9¢	$95.97	—	-$95.97
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Upavg 68.8¢	$215.59	$279.37	+$63.78	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
SF sfkjbsr457	Upavg 71.7¢	$224.55	$253.43	+$28.89	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
GA gansinimenARB<$100	Downavg 42.2¢	$189.05	$117.76	-$71.29	51% 17046-16595 (33641)
└ Down leg	Downavg 42.2¢	$140.01	—	-$140.01
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.6¢	$49.04	$117.76	+$68.72
NIULAI4	Upavg 96¢	$131.7	$137.19	+$5.49	77% 9369-2808 (12177)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Upavg 54.1¢	$96.82	$157.95	+$61.13	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100	Downavg 52¢	$119.78	$94.78	-$25	56% 57906-44729 (102635)
└ Down leg	Downavg 52¢	$78.08	—	-$78.08
└ Up leg	Upavg 44¢	$41.7	$94.78	+$53.08
SI sir-upalot	Upavg 68.3¢	$112.2	$150	+$37.8	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
WZ wzbbbARB<$100	Upavg 52¢	$69.24	$102.99	+$33.75	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
└ Up leg	Upavg 52¢	$53.55	$102.99	+$49.44
└ Down leg	Downavg 21¢	$15.7	—	-$15.7
13 13897651CTR<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$91.75	—	-$91.75	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$78.88	$89.85	+$10.97	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
└ Up leg	Upavg 62.2¢	$55.85	$89.85	+$34
└ Down leg	Downavg 40.1¢	$23.03	—	-$23.03
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$73.58	—	-$73.58	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Downavg 39.9¢	$100	—	-$100	58% 12603-9272 (21875)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 74.4¢	$43.6	$43.16	+$14.83	64% 22780-12562 (35342)
VE Vega7CTR<$100	Downavg 3.1¢	$15	—	-$15	74% 2942-1049 (3991)
AN antsaslyku<$100	Upavg 59.1¢	$36.15	$30.84	-$5.31	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 46.6¢	$54.2	—	-$54.2	58% 60418-44109 (104527)

THG.

Invested

$2,470.18

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$24.95

Record

56%

29340-23030 (52370)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Invested

$1,045.12

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$260.84

Record

54%

15475-12928 (28403)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$1,030.79

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

GoodFallen

Invested

$444.26

Value

$649.09

PnL

+$204.83

Record

56%

13732-10920 (24652)

Polkadot-FrogCTR

Down

Invested

$633.79

Value

—

PnL

-$621.91

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

ply-pm0

Invested

$420.79

Value

$435.21

PnL

+$14.43

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

machinelearned

Invested

$376.05

Value

$425

PnL

+$48.95

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

Bonereaper

Invested

$273.05

Value

$302.26

PnL

+$29.21

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$298.4

Value

$316.87

PnL

+$18.47

Record

56%

12446-9588 (22034)

Both legs:

Up$202.4263.9¢+$114.45

Down$95.9748.9¢-$95.97

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Invested

$215.59

Value

$279.37

PnL

+$63.78

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

sfkjbsr457

Invested

$224.55

Value

$253.43

PnL

+$28.89

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

gansinimenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$189.05

Value

$117.76

PnL

-$71.29

Record

51%

17046-16595 (33641)

Both legs:

Down$140.0142.2¢-$140.01

Up$49.0441.6¢+$68.72

NIULAI4

Invested

$131.7

Value

$137.19

PnL

+$5.49

Record

77%

9369-2808 (12177)

EZTRADENL2

Invested

$96.82

Value

$157.95

PnL

+$61.13

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$119.78

Value

$94.78

PnL

-$25

Record

56%

57906-44729 (102635)

Both legs:

Down$78.0852¢-$78.08

Up$41.744¢+$53.08

sir-upalot

Invested

$112.2

Value

$150

PnL

+$37.8

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

wzbbbARB<$100

Invested

$69.24

Value

$102.99

PnL

+$33.75

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

Both legs:

Invested

$91.75

Value

—

PnL

-$91.75

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Invested

$78.88

Value

$89.85

PnL

+$10.97

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

Both legs:

Up$55.8562.2¢+$34

Down$23.0340.1¢-$23.03

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$73.58

Value

—

PnL

-$73.58

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$100

Value

—

PnL

-$100

Record

58%

12603-9272 (21875)

aaa221<$100

Invested

$43.6

Value

$43.16

PnL

+$14.83

Record

64%

22780-12562 (35342)

Vega7CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15

Value

—

PnL

-$15

Record

74%

2942-1049 (3991)

antsaslyku<$100

Invested

$36.15

Value

$30.84

PnL

-$5.31

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$54.2

Value

—

PnL

-$54.2

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

Smart Money Signal

18 of 29 top traders (62%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0405e9d4...4aff88

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793323500

Traders in this Market

THG.

Up — $2.5K

+$24.95

dangerously-skip-permissions

Up — $1.3K

+$260.84

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $2.3K

+$1.3K

GoodFallen

Up — $649.09

+$204.83

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Down — $0

-$621.91

ply-pm0

Up — $435.21

+$14.43

machinelearned

Up — $425

+$48.95

Bonereaper

Up — $302.26

+$29.21

FairValueMachine

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$18.47

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Up — $279.37

+$63.78

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