Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Up 53%

14 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.7K

Combined PnL

-$848.22

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares2,161

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down7 traders

Total Value$757.53

Total Shares758

Combined PnL+$238.13

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100	Upavg 44.8¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$167.52	54% 15475-12928 (28403)
└ Up leg	Upavg 44.8¢	$901.04	—	-$901.04
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.8¢	$786.97	$1.5K	+$733.52
GO GoodFallenARB<$100	Downavg 53.1¢	$966.37	$1.1K	+$90.84	56% 13732-10920 (24652)
└ Down leg	Downavg 53.1¢	$561.23	$1.1K	+$495.99
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.1¢	$405.14	—	-$405.14
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Upavg 45.9¢	$682.71	$544.79	-$137.91	56% 12446-9588 (22034)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.9¢	$384.79	—	-$384.79
└ Down leg	Downavg 54.7¢	$297.92	$544.79	+$246.87
BO BonereaperARB<$100	Downavg 55.4¢	$584.85	$648.33	+$63.48	66% 99090-51342 (150432)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.4¢	$359.16	$648.33	+$289.16
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.9¢	$225.68	—	-$225.68
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR	Upavg 50.3¢	$554.41	—	-$554.41	58% 37751-26971 (64722)
PL ply-pm0ARB<$100	Downavg 58¢	$443.47	$427.12	-$16.35	49% 5176-5326 (10502)
└ Up leg	Upavg 45.3¢	$195.94	—	-$195.94
└ Down leg	Downavg 58¢	$247.53	$427.12	+$179.59
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Upavg 42.9¢	$272.69	$255.92	-$16.76	64% 58160-32830 (90990)
└ Up leg	Upavg 42.9¢	$181.34	—	-$181.34
└ Down leg	Downavg 35.7¢	$91.34	$255.92	+$164.58
IM ImgonnadoitCTR	Upavg 50.2¢	$260	—	-$260	37% 149-258 (407)
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 51.1¢	$246.24	$273.34	+$28.71	55% 7377-6046 (13423)
└ Down leg	Downavg 51.1¢	$139.56	$273.34	+$132.83
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.8¢	$104.13	—	-$104.13
13 13897651ARB<$100	Downavg 49.5¢	$226.48	$274.45	+$47.97	59% 6704-4682 (11386)
└ Down leg	Downavg 49.5¢	$135.97	$274.45	+$138.48
└ Up leg	Upavg 51.4¢	$90.51	—	-$90.51
SF sfkjbsr457ARB<$100	Downavg 67.3¢	$276.95	$240	-$36.95	55% 7812-6453 (14265)
└ Down leg	Downavg 67.3¢	$161.4	$240	+$78.6
└ Up leg	Upavg 56.2¢	$115.55	—	-$115.55
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100	Upavg 46.7¢	$171.78	$136.25	-$35.54	60% 12163-8036 (20199)
└ Up leg	Upavg 46.7¢	$105.01	—	-$105.01
└ Down leg	Downavg 49¢	$66.78	$136.25	+$69.47
machinelearned	Downavg 38.5¢	$107.41	$269.28	+$161.87	55% 8592-7028 (15620)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530	Downavg 79.3¢	$207.03	$250.62	+$43.59	56% 57906-44729 (102635)
ohioismARB<$100	Downavg 62¢	$124.13	$150.18	+$26.05	64% 39977-22851 (62828)
└ Down leg	Downavg 62¢	$93.11	$150.18	+$57.07
└ Up leg	Upavg 31¢	$31.02	—	-$31.02
SI sir-upalotARB<$100	Downavg 55.6¢	$110.92	$179.49	+$68.57	55% 23820-19252 (43072)
└ Down leg	Downavg 55.6¢	$99.81	$179.49	+$79.68
└ Up leg	Upavg 17.3¢	$11.11	—	-$11.11
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 74.5¢	$162.99	$186.45	+$23.46	57% 7773-5955 (13728)
AN antsaslykuARB<$100	Upavg 53.7¢	$129.94	$88.55	-$41.39	66% 112022-58386 (170408)
└ Up leg	Upavg 53.7¢	$73.29	—	-$73.29
└ Down leg	Downavg 64¢	$56.66	$88.55	+$31.89
wowitsamazingARB<$100	Downavg 50.4¢	$114.1	$166.78	+$52.68	58% 12603-9272 (21875)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.4¢	$84	$166.78	+$82.78
└ Up leg	Upavg 55.2¢	$30.1	—	-$30.1
NIULAI4CTR<$100	Upavg 8.6¢	$13.83	—	-$13.83	77% 9369-2808 (12177)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 31¢	$53.4	—	-$53.4	58% 60418-44109 (104527)
EZ EZTRADENL2CTR<$100	Upavg 58.6¢	$79.27	—	-$147.51	57% 11959-8957 (20916)
GA gansinimenCTR<$100	Upavg 7¢	$7	—	-$7	51% 17046-16595 (33641)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 70.3¢	$65.74	—	-$46.04	64% 22780-12562 (35342)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 53.8¢	$13.32	$13.08	-$0.24	61% 94646-59611 (154257)

dangerously-skip-permissionsARB<$100

Invested

$1,688.01

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$167.52

Record

54%

15475-12928 (28403)

Both legs:

Up$901.0444.8¢-$901.04

Down$786.9751.8¢+$733.52

GoodFallenARB<$100

Down

Invested

$966.37

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$90.84

Record

56%

13732-10920 (24652)

Both legs:

Down$561.2353.1¢+$495.99

Up$405.1446.1¢-$405.14

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Invested

$682.71

Value

$544.79

PnL

-$137.91

Record

56%

12446-9588 (22034)

Both legs:

Up$384.7945.9¢-$384.79

Down$297.9254.7¢+$246.87

BonereaperARB<$100

Down

Invested

$584.85

Value

$648.33

PnL

+$63.48

Record

66%

99090-51342 (150432)

Both legs:

Down$359.1655.4¢+$289.16

Up$225.6837.9¢-$225.68

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR

Invested

$554.41

Value

—

PnL

-$554.41

Record

58%

37751-26971 (64722)

ply-pm0ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$443.47

Value

$427.12

PnL

-$16.35

Record

49%

5176-5326 (10502)

Both legs:

Up$195.9445.3¢-$195.94

Down$247.5358¢+$179.59

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Invested

$272.69

Value

$255.92

PnL

-$16.76

Record

64%

58160-32830 (90990)

Both legs:

Up$181.3442.9¢-$181.34

Down$91.3435.7¢+$164.58

ImgonnadoitCTR

Invested

$260

Value

—

PnL

-$260

Record

37%

149-258 (407)

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$246.24

Value

$273.34

PnL

+$28.71

Record

55%

7377-6046 (13423)

Both legs:

Down$139.5651.1¢+$132.83

Up$104.1351.8¢-$104.13

13897651ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$226.48

Value

$274.45

PnL

+$47.97

Record

59%

6704-4682 (11386)

Both legs:

Down$135.9749.5¢+$138.48

Up$90.5151.4¢-$90.51

sfkjbsr457ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$276.95

Value

$240

PnL

-$36.95

Record

55%

7812-6453 (14265)

Both legs:

Down$161.467.3¢+$78.6

Up$115.5556.2¢-$115.55

Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100

Invested

$171.78

Value

$136.25

PnL

-$35.54

Record

60%

12163-8036 (20199)

Both legs:

Up$105.0146.7¢-$105.01

Down$66.7849¢+$69.47

machinelearned

Down

Invested

$107.41

Value

$269.28

PnL

+$161.87

Record

55%

8592-7028 (15620)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Down

Invested

$207.03

Value

$250.62

PnL

+$43.59

Record

56%

57906-44729 (102635)

ohioismARB<$100

Down

Invested

$124.13

Value

$150.18

PnL

+$26.05

Record

64%

39977-22851 (62828)

Both legs:

Invested

$110.92

Value

$179.49

PnL

+$68.57

Record

55%

23820-19252 (43072)

Both legs:

Down$99.8155.6¢+$79.68

Up$11.1117.3¢-$11.11

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$162.99

Value

$186.45

PnL

+$23.46

Record

57%

7773-5955 (13728)

antsaslykuARB<$100

Invested

$129.94

Value

$88.55

PnL

-$41.39

Record

66%

112022-58386 (170408)

Both legs:

Up$73.2953.7¢-$73.29

Down$56.6664¢+$31.89

wowitsamazingARB<$100

Down

Invested

$114.1

Value

$166.78

PnL

+$52.68

Record

58%

12603-9272 (21875)

Both legs:

Down$8450.4¢+$82.78

Up$30.155.2¢-$30.1

NIULAI4CTR<$100

Invested

$13.83

Value

—

PnL

-$13.83

Record

77%

9369-2808 (12177)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$53.4

Value

—

PnL

-$53.4

Record

58%

60418-44109 (104527)

EZTRADENL2CTR<$100

Invested

$79.27

Value

—

PnL

-$147.51

Record

57%

11959-8957 (20916)

gansinimenCTR<$100

Invested

Value

—

PnL

-$7

Record

51%

17046-16595 (33641)

aaa221CTR<$100

Invested

$65.74

Value

—

PnL

-$46.04

Record

64%

22780-12562 (35342)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$13.32

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$0.24

Record

61%

94646-59611 (154257)

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)14 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xf90e4f78...07e3aa

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793323200

Traders in this Market

dangerously-skip-permissions

Arbitrage — excluded

GoodFallen

Arbitrage — excluded

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded

Bonereaper

Arbitrage — excluded

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $0

ply-pm0

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Arbitrage — excluded

Imgonnadoit

Up — $0

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e

Arbitrage — excluded

13897651

Arbitrage — excluded