Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 73% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 78%
3 arb excluded
$7.0K
$788.59
Smart Money Signal
16 of 22 top traders (73%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BO Bonereaper | Upavg 93.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.4K | +$45.88 | 66% 99072-51320 (150392) |
DA dangerously-skip-permissions | Upavg 72.7¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$72.1 | 54% 15461-12923 (28384) |
GO GoodFallen | Upavg 71¢ | $361.65 | $404.95 | +$43.31 | 56% 13719-10915 (24634) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 59.8¢ | $274.77 | $309.33 | +$34.56 | 64% 58129-32808 (90937) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.8¢ | $185.07 | $309.33 | +$124.25 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 24.7¢ | $89.69 | — | -$89.69 | |
 machinelearned | Upavg 71.3¢ | $262.77 | $343.42 | +$80.65 | 55% 8583-7015 (15598) |
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e | Upavg 66.8¢ | $208.18 | $241.83 | +$33.65 | 55% 7362-6039 (13401) |
PL ply-pm0 | Upavg 74.1¢ | $188.4 | $213.21 | +$24.81 | 49% 5160-5320 (10480) |
WZ wzbbb | Upavg 76.4¢ | $173.24 | $182 | +$8.76 | 57% 7763-5950 (13713) |
RE Repentant-Dealer-GlidingARB<$100 | Upavg 77.3¢ | $162.77 | $139.41 | -$23.36 | 60% 12150-8027 (20177) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 77.3¢ | $107.76 | $139.41 | +$31.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 19¢ | $55.01 | — | -$55.01 | |
SF sfkjbsr457 | Upavg 71.7¢ | $88.4 | $120 | +$31.6 | 55% 7798-6445 (14243) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 49¢ | $118.08 | $179 | +$60.92 | 58% 37728-26945 (64673) |
 FairValueMachineARB<$100 | Upavg 62.4¢ | $76.51 | $74.27 | -$2.24 | 56% 12434-9581 (22015) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 62.4¢ | $46.32 | $74.27 | +$27.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 31.4¢ | $30.19 | — | -$30.19 | |
EZ EZTRADENL2 | Upavg 67.9¢ | $94.99 | $139.98 | +$44.99 | 57% 11944-8950 (20894) |
SI sir-upalot<$100 | Upavg 56.2¢ | $52.4 | $55 | +$2.6 | 55% 23790-19221 (43011) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 69.4¢ | $45.21 | $54.92 | +$15.42 | 64% 22724-12523 (35247) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.4¢ | $24 | — | -$24 | 58% 12586-9256 (21842) |
PB PBot-6<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $13.38 | $29.08 | +$15.7 | 58% 50939-37072 (88011) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.4¢ | $8.44 | — | -$8.44 | 52% 90032-84524 (174556) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 25.4¢ | $16.49 | — | -$7.24 | 61% 94613-59581 (154194) |
AN antsaslyku<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $5 | $6.94 | +$1.94 | 66% 112010-58363 (170373) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 27¢ | $0.37 | — | -$0.37 | 56% 57878-44713 (102591) |
IM Imgonnadoit | Upavg 50.4¢ | $400 | $0.01 | +$346.3 | 37% 142-243 (385) |
NO Nobey1CTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 40% 455-684 (1139) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 19978-19143 (39121) |
AR arcsine-barristerCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | 56% 3640-2826 (6466) |
Invested
$3,394.24
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$45.88
Record
66%
99072-51320 (150392)
Invested
$1,040.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$72.1
Record
54%
15461-12923 (28384)
Invested
$361.65
Value
$404.95
PnL
+$43.31
Record
56%
13719-10915 (24634)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$274.77
Value
$309.33
PnL
+$34.56
Record
64%
58129-32808 (90937)
Both legs:
machinelearnedInvested
$262.77
Value
$343.42
PnL
+$80.65
Record
55%
8583-7015 (15598)
Invested
$208.18
Value
$241.83
PnL
+$33.65
Record
55%
7362-6039 (13401)
Invested
$188.4
Value
$213.21
PnL
+$24.81
Record
49%
5160-5320 (10480)
Invested
$173.24
Value
$182
PnL
+$8.76
Record
57%
7763-5950 (13713)
Invested
$162.77
Value
$139.41
PnL
-$23.36
Record
60%
12150-8027 (20177)
Both legs:
Invested
$88.4
Value
$120
PnL
+$31.6
Record
55%
7798-6445 (14243)
Invested
$118.08
Value
$179
PnL
+$60.92
Record
58%
37728-26945 (64673)
FairValueMachineARB<$100Invested
$76.51
Value
$74.27
PnL
-$2.24
Record
56%
12434-9581 (22015)
Both legs:
Invested
$94.99
Value
$139.98
PnL
+$44.99
Record
57%
11944-8950 (20894)
Invested
$52.4
Value
$55
PnL
+$2.6
Record
55%
23790-19221 (43011)
Invested
$45.21
Value
$54.92
PnL
+$15.42
Record
64%
22724-12523 (35247)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
—
PnL
-$24
Record
58%
12586-9256 (21842)
Invested
$13.38
Value
$29.08
PnL
+$15.7
Record
58%
50939-37072 (88011)
Invested
$8.44
Value
—
PnL
-$8.44
Record
52%
90032-84524 (174556)
Invested
$16.49
Value
—
PnL
-$7.24
Record
61%
94613-59581 (154194)
Invested
$5
Value
$6.94
PnL
+$1.94
Record
66%
112010-58363 (170373)
Invested
$0.37
Value
—
PnL
-$0.37
Record
56%
57878-44713 (102591)
Invested
$400
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$346.3
Record
37%
142-243 (385)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
455-684 (1139)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
19978-19143 (39121)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3640-2826 (6466)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
Bonereaper
Up — $3.4K
dangerously-skip-permissions
Up — $1.1K
GoodFallen
Up — $404.95
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
machinelearned
Up — $343.42
0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5e
Up — $241.83
ply-pm0
Up — $213.21
wzbbb
Up — $182
Repentant-Dealer-Gliding
ARBArbitrage — excluded
sfkjbsr457
Up — $120