Consensus Won ✓

Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down

Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET

Resolved Down. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

🏆

Won

Consensus Traders

Down 77%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.9K

Combined PnL

$719.73

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 32 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down25 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,643

Combined PnL+$839.97

Up7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares904

Combined PnL-$120.24

Down — 78%Up — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BO Bonereaper	Downavg 92.8¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$90.46	66% 99072-51320 (150392)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 47.5¢	$511.97	$1.1K	+$564.03	58% 37728-26945 (64673)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 73.9¢	$738.84	$755.44	+$16.6	64% 58129-32808 (90937)
DA dangerously-skip-permissions	Downavg 72.5¢	$467.52	$436.12	-$31.4	54% 15461-12923 (28384)
GA gansinimen	Downavg 66.9¢	$273.91	$334.94	+$61.03	51% 17039-16590 (33629)
WZ wzbbb	Downavg 67.4¢	$246.58	$272.76	+$26.18	57% 7763-5950 (13713)
GO GoodFallen	Downavg 70¢	$274.22	$237.41	-$36.8	56% 13719-10915 (24634)
EZ EZTRADENL2	Downavg 75.1¢	$223.26	$211.16	-$12.11	57% 11944-8950 (20894)
RE Repentant-Dealer-Gliding	Downavg 70.4¢	$152.29	$140.75	-$11.54	60% 12150-8027 (20177)
FairValueMachineARB<$100	Downavg 65.2¢	$133.02	$108.76	-$24.26	56% 12434-9581 (22015)
└ Up leg	Upavg 36.1¢	$62.12	—	-$62.12
└ Down leg	Downavg 65.2¢	$70.9	$108.76	+$37.85
0X 0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100	Downavg 69.1¢	$111.21	$110.9	-$0.31	55% 7362-6039 (13401)
└ Down leg	Downavg 69.1¢	$76.62	$110.9	+$34.28
└ Up leg	Upavg 37.2¢	$34.59	—	-$34.59
SF sfkjbsr457<$100	Downavg 82.7¢	$84.62	$72.39	-$12.23	55% 7798-6445 (14243)
PL ply-pm0<$100	Downavg 77.4¢	$64.98	$84	+$19.02	49% 5160-5320 (10480)
SI sir-upalotCTR<$100	Upavg 43.2¢	$66.12	—	-$66.12	55% 23790-19221 (43011)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 90¢	$64.08	$71.2	+$7.12	64% 39962-22836 (62798)
DE devonpollCTR<$100	Upavg 19.2¢	$18.8	—	-$18.8	51% 19978-19143 (39121)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$50.16	$82	+$31.84	34% 18719-35716 (54435)
machinelearned<$100	Downavg 75.1¢	$50.81	$67.63	+$16.82	55% 8583-7015 (15598)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 90¢	$54.01	$60.01	+$6	56% 57878-44713 (102591)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$10.02	—	-$10.02	59% 62163-43312 (105475)
13 13897651<$100	Downavg 51¢	$30.21	$59.24	+$29.03	59% 6693-4671 (11364)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$28.71	$29	+$0.29	93% 23157-1756 (24913)
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 46.5¢	$23.26	$50.03	+$26.77	58% 50939-37072 (88011)
HS Hsilverbasher<$100	Downavg 60.5¢	$27.82	$46	+$18.18	12% 18265-132965 (151230)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100	Upavg 24.5¢	$16	—	-$16	58% 12586-9256 (21842)

Bonereaper

Down

Invested

$3,397.99

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$90.46

Record

66%

99072-51320 (150392)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down

Invested

$511.97

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$564.03

Record

58%

37728-26945 (64673)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$738.84

Value

$755.44

PnL

+$16.6

Record

64%

58129-32808 (90937)

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down

Invested

$467.52

Value

$436.12

PnL

-$31.4

Record

54%

15461-12923 (28384)

gansinimen

Down

Invested

$273.91

Value

$334.94

PnL

+$61.03

Record

51%

17039-16590 (33629)

wzbbb

Down

Invested

$246.58

Value

$272.76

PnL

+$26.18

Record

57%

7763-5950 (13713)

GoodFallen

Down

Invested

$274.22

Value

$237.41

PnL

-$36.8

Record

56%

13719-10915 (24634)

EZTRADENL2

Down

Invested

$223.26

Value

$211.16

PnL

-$12.11

Record

57%

11944-8950 (20894)

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down

Invested

$152.29

Value

$140.75

PnL

-$11.54

Record

60%

12150-8027 (20177)

FairValueMachineARB<$100

Down

Invested

$133.02

Value

$108.76

PnL

-$24.26

Record

56%

12434-9581 (22015)

Both legs:

Up$62.1236.1¢-$62.12

Down$70.965.2¢+$37.85

0xb543fd77aeadc8f2a153187664c0b38dcd505d5eARB<$100

Down

Invested

$111.21

Value

$110.9

PnL

-$0.31

Record

55%

7362-6039 (13401)

Both legs:

Down$76.6269.1¢+$34.28

Up$34.5937.2¢-$34.59

sfkjbsr457<$100

Down

Invested

$84.62

Value

$72.39

PnL

-$12.23

Record

55%

7798-6445 (14243)

ply-pm0<$100

Down

Invested

$64.98

Value

$84

PnL

+$19.02

Record

49%

5160-5320 (10480)

sir-upalotCTR<$100

Invested

$66.12

Value

—

PnL

-$66.12

Record

55%

23790-19221 (43011)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$64.08

Value

$71.2

PnL

+$7.12

Record

64%

39962-22836 (62798)

devonpollCTR<$100

Invested

$18.8

Value

—

PnL

-$18.8

Record

51%

19978-19143 (39121)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$50.16

Value

$82

PnL

+$31.84

Record

34%

18719-35716 (54435)

machinelearned<$100

Down

Invested

$50.81

Value

$67.63

PnL

+$16.82

Record

55%

8583-7015 (15598)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$54.01

Value

$60.01

PnL

+$6

Record

56%

57878-44713 (102591)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$10.02

Value

—

PnL

-$10.02

Record

59%

62163-43312 (105475)

13897651<$100

Down

Invested

$30.21

Value

$59.24

PnL

+$29.03

Record

59%

6693-4671 (11364)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$28.71

Value

$29

PnL

+$0.29

Record

93%

23157-1756 (24913)

PBot-6<$100

Down

Invested

$23.26

Value

$50.03

PnL

+$26.77

Record

58%

50939-37072 (88011)

Hsilverbasher<$100

Down

Invested

$27.82

Value

$46

PnL

+$18.18

Record

12%

18265-132965 (151230)

wowitsamazingCTR<$100

Invested

$16

Value

—

PnL

-$16

Record

58%

12586-9256 (21842)

Smart Money Signal

Down

25 of 32 top traders (78%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%23 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xda0f0a48...df87a4

Slug

btc-updown-5m-1793322000

Traders in this Market

Bonereaper

Down — $3.5K

+$90.46

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $1.1K

+$564.03

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $755.44

+$16.6

dangerously-skip-permissions

Down — $436.12

-$31.4

gansinimen

Down — $334.94

+$61.03

wzbbb

Down — $272.76

+$26.18

GoodFallen

Down — $237.41

-$36.8

EZTRADENL2

Down — $211.16

-$12.11

Repentant-Dealer-Gliding

Down — $140.75

FairValueMachine

Arbitrage — excluded